Once a week during the NFL season, I dig into the pass-game data and try to figure out what trends matter at wide receiver, tight end and running back. Let’s open up the spreadsheets and see what we find.
Dan Campbell saves the day in Detroit (at least on offense)
Let’s enjoy the 2025 Detroit Lions while we can. The Lions are somewhere between a 30-40% chance to make the playoffs, depending on which data estimator you prefer. The pesky Steelers, improving Vikings and formidable Bears remain on the schedule. Nothing easy here. The Lions might not qualify for the tournament.
Advertisement
But at least the Detroit offense has been humming of late, and that coincided with Campbell taking over the play sheet. The Lions have 189 points in six games with Campbell calling the shots, averaging about 419 yards per game. They averaged 351 yards per game with John Morton dialing up the plays.
With Campbell pushing the right buttons, the Lions are giving us late-season impact players. Consider the results:
– Jahmyr Gibbs was RB8 during the Morton era. He’s RB1 since Campbell took over.
– Jameson Williams was in a WR41 funk with Morton. He’s the WR5 the last six games. Williams’s ADOT has come down significantly in this period, which certainly helps; more lay-up targets.
Advertisement
– Jared Goff stood QB14 with Morton. He’s QB5 since.
To be fair, this Detroit spike is tied to other factors. The Lions have collapsed on defense, mostly because of cluster injuries in the secondary. Some favorable matchups have come during this period. And with tight end Sam LaPorta getting hurt, the usage tree has condensed somewhat. We also should mention that Amon-Ra St. Brown has been good all year (WR4 with Morton, WR6 with Campbell).
Still, it’s fun to see pinball alive in Detroit. This week’s game total is set for 52 points; get your popcorn ready.
Jacoby Brissett, miracle man in Arizona
We’ve sung the song forever. Garbage Time Heroes never feel any pain. Garbage Time Heroes never really die.
Advertisement
This is a reprise of past themes, but we need to re-examine Brissett’s amazing run. He’s been the Arizona starting quarterback for nine games, and the Cardinals have won just once in that period. But the stats have arrived every week: QB7, QB12, QB10, QB10, QB4, QB8, QB8, QB12, QB12. If you run the cumulative numbers over that period, he’s the QB3, trailing only Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence.
A huge key to Brissett’s fantasy production has been game flow. The Cardinals almost always fall behind quickly but they continue to throw the ball and compete. Look at the splits on the Brissett record: 14 of his 18 touchdown passes have come in the second half. He has a 103.2 passer rating after intermission, compiling a 7.2 YPA.
If you prorated Brissett’s nine-game starting pace to a 17-game season, you’re looking at ridiculous stats. Here’s what you’d get: 483 completions, 727 attempts, 5,115 passing yards, 34 touchdowns. And throw in 413 rushing yards for good measure.
The Falcons and Bengals call the next two weeks. There’s no reason this music can’t keep playing.
Advertisement
Trey McBride has been unstoppable since Brissett took over: TE2, TE3, TE6, TE1, TE2, TE5, TE2, TE15, TE2. He’s obviously the runaway TE1 for the year. The difference between McBride and TE2 Travis Kelce is basically the same as the gap between Kelce and TE25 Darren Waller (who’s played just seven games). McBride has been an unquestionable league-winner in 2025.
Sometimes I like to close my eyes and just imagine Michael Wilson is Marvin Harrison Jr. Wilson’s emergence came five games ago and it’s been a blast, too: WR3, WR13, WR49, WR2, WR17. The one clunker in that series came after Harrison returned to action. It’s not clear if Harrison will play again this year.
If you grade Wilson over this five-game sample, he’s the best receiver in fantasy, narrowly ahead of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua. Wilson is a slam-dunk fantasy starter when Harrison can’t play and still worth consideration even if Harrison does come back.
Advertisement
J.J. McCarthy surges — but not with Justin Jefferson
It’s been encouraging to see McCarthy start to play well. He checked in as the QB10 in the victory over Washington two weeks ago, then had a QB7 showing in the upset at Dallas. After an early interception against the Cowboys, McCarthy avoided negative plays for the rest of the night. He didn’t even take a sack, which is a major step forward in his game.
Alas, Jefferson has not been part of this recent spike. Jefferson has a paltry 4-33-0 log over the last two weeks, continuing a lost season. Since the Minnesota bye, here are Jefferson’s weekly finishes: WR25, WR27, WR18, WR44, WR27, WR38, WR95, WR81, WR77.
Sure, opposing defenses prioritize Jefferson from the opening snap, but that’s always the case with elite receivers. You need to find a way to beat that. Jefferson’s lost year isn’t just about him, but it’s also a red-ink spot for McCarthy and well-respected play-designer Kevin O’Connell.
Advertisement
The Vikings have a 48.8 rating when Jefferson is targeted this year, a horrible number and one of the lowest in the league. But that rating drops to 38.4 when it’s McCarthy throwing to Jefferson this year. It blows my mind to say this, but the data screams this out: the worst passing play in the NFL this year is any J.J. McCarthy pass to Justin Jefferson.
I’ll try to stay open-minded after the season. McCarthy has started to improve, O’Connell is a sharp mind, Jefferson is obviously uber-talented and eager to improve. They can figure this out. But there’s no reason to expect a fix to magically appear as we navigate the fantasy playoffs.
Top-5 target earners at each position from Week 15
Wide Receiver
|
Player
|
Targets
|
Receptions
|
Target Share
|
|
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions
|
18
|
13
|
48.6%
|
|
Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals
|
16
|
10
|
44.4%
|
|
Mike Evans, Bucs
|
12
|
6
|
37.5%
|
|
Michael Wilson, Cardinals
|
11
|
5
|
28.9%
|
|
Puka Nacua, Rams
|
11
|
9
|
28.9%
|
Running Back
|
Player
|
Targets
|
Receptions
|
Target Share
|
|
Bijan Robinson, Falcons
|
11
|
8
|
26.8%
|
|
Chase Brown, Bengals
|
7
|
7
|
19.4%
|
|
Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions
|
7
|
4
|
18.9%
|
|
Kenneth Gainwell, Steelers
|
7
|
7
|
25.9%
|
|
De’Von Achane, Dolphins
|
6
|
6
|
23.1%
|
Tight End
|
Player
|
Targets
|
Receptions
|
Target Share
|
|
Harold Fannin Jr., Browns
|
14
|
7
|
45.2%
|
|
Trey McBride, Cardinals
|
13
|
12
|
34.2%
|
|
Kyle Pitts Sr., Falcons
|
12
|
11
|
29.3%
|
|
Dalton Schultz, Texans
|
9
|
8
|
34.6%
|
|
Travis Kelce, Chiefs
|
9
|
7
|
30%
|