Good luck to NFL officials trying to explain both of these calls.
On Saturday, NFL officials deemed that Bills receiver Brandin Cooks didn’t make a football move after a would-be catch. And despite Cooks’ knee touching the ground with the ball clearly in his possession, Broncos cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian was awarded an interception for stripping the ball away after the two tumbled to the ground.
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The call of an interception swung the outcome of Denver’s 33-30 playoff win over Buffalo in the Broncos’ favor.
Why was Davante Adams awarded with a catch?
On Sunday, during another critical juncture in a divisional playoff game, Rams receiver Davante Adams was involved in a similar play. Except in this instance, officials awarded Adams a catch.
The catch set up the Rams for a go-ahead fourth-quarter touchdown en route to a 20-17 overtime win.
On the play in question, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford looked to Adams in traffic over the middle on second-and-10. Adams secured the ball between two defenders.
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Before taking a step, Adams was dragged to the ground. Before and as his knee touched the ground, Bears defensive back Tyrique Stevenson had his hand on the ball and was wrestling for control. Stevenson stripped the ball from Adams’ grasp before Adams fell to the turf and took possession of it.
So what made that a catch? Here’s referee Shawn Hochuli’s explanation on the field:
“The ruling on the field is the runner down by contact,” Hochuli said. “It’s first down, offense.”
Terry McAulay agrees with both calls
The Bears didn’t challenge the call, and the Rams scored a touchdown five plays later for a 17-10 lead. After the catch, NBC cut to former NFL official and rules analyst Terry McAulay for his thoughts. He agreed with his former colleagues that the play was “clearly” a legal catch.
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“He clearly completed the catch on this one,” McAulay said. “He has it long enough to perform an act common to the game, and then he goes to the ground, and his knee goes down prior to him losing control.”
Contrast that with McAulay’s explanation on social media Saturday as to why Cooks didn’t catch the ball:
“A player going to the ground to catch a pass must maintain control during and after contact with the ground. That’s the rule. Apply accordingly.”
So what’s the difference? Here’s the contested Broncos-Bills play:
McAulay saw an “act common to the game” from Adams that he did not see from Cooks. Adams didn’t take a step. He didn’t turn upfield. He did land upright with both feet on the ground, where as Cooks’ feet touched the ground, but he fell to the turf as he caught — errr, didn’t catch the ball.
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That was enough for McAulay to agree with the calls on Adams’ catch — and Cooks’ non-catch.
‘Simultaneous possession’ explanation
CBS rules analyst Gene Steratore was on the call for the Cooks-McMillian play. He also agreed with the call on the field. He wasn’t convinced that Cooks ever had possession of the ball to warrant simultaneous possession, even though Cooks had it firmly and clearly in his grasp as he hit the ground.
“I’m not sure Cooks has possession coming to the ground there, to say that it would be simultaneous” Steratore said. “It feels to me like Cooks didn’t have firm possession of the football when they’re down by contact there.”
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Meanwhile, here’s NFL rulebook language that dictates that the ball belongs to the offense in the case of simultaneous possession between a receiver and a defender:
“If a pass is caught simultaneously by two eligible opponents, and both players retain it, the ball belongs to the passers.
“It is not a simultaneous catch if a player gains control first and an opponent subsequently gains joint control.”
Cooks had control of the ball before McMillian stripped it away — rather than the two gaining possession at the same time — which appears to be enough to rule out “simultaneous possession” by the letter of the law.
The explanations aren’t likely going to be enough to satisfy those who disagree with either call or both — especially those who see an inconsistency in how the two were called. That the calls were attached to such high stakes on back-to-back nights raises the temperature that much higher.
And when the Rams punted to start overtime, then let the Bears start driving downfield, it seemed like the Bears’ magical season would continue to the NFC championship game.
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But the Rams also know how to win close games. Williams threw an interception to Rams safety Kam Curl with the Bears getting close to field-goal range. Then it was Matthew Stafford’s turn to show why he’s the likely NFL MVP.
Stafford drove the Rams downfield, hitting Puka Nacua on a huge third-down play to get the Rams into field-goal range, and Los Angeles ended the Bears’ season on a field goal by Harrison Mevis for the 20-17 win. The Rams are moving on to the NFC championship game in Seattle where they’ll face the top-seeded Seahawks.
The Seahawks and Rams played two games that came down to the final play in the regular season, including a wild Week 16 comeback for the Seahawks. They’ll face each other a third time in the NFC championship game next Sunday evening.
The Rams won’t be overwhelmed by the moment. They’ve already survived two white-knuckle games to move to the NFL’s final four.
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Chicago’s bitter cold, snow affect offenses
The Bears have been a second-half team for much of the season, but the first half on Sunday night was pretty good for them.
Chicago outgained the Rams 210-148 in the first half. The Bears did a good job limiting Nacua, who had three catches for 27 yards at that point, and shutting out Davante Adams in the first half.
The Bears weren’t running it great in the cold weather but Williams played well. He had 155 yards and a touchdown in the first half. He also had an interception on a fourth down, one of the three times the Bears went for it on fourth down in the first half. The only time they converted on a fourth down was a big one. Williams hit DJ Moore for a 3-yard touchdown for the Bears’ only touchdown of the first half.
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The Rams were out of sorts, and the weather was a factor. It was cold, with light snow coating the field. It’s not the type of weather a team from Southern California will naturally adapt to easily. The Rams were leaning on Stafford and the passing game, but it wasn’t effective in the conditions. That hasn’t been the case often this season for Stafford, who is the favorite to win NFL MVP.
It was Bears weather, and that helped keep the game low-scoring and close. It was tied 10-10 going into the fourth quarter.
Rams safety Kam Curl came up with this overtime interception that helped Los Angeles defeat Chicago in the NFC divisional round. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Rams survive another jaw-dropping TD from Caleb Williams
The third quarter was scoreless but there was plenty of excitement to come in the fourth quarter and overtime.
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The Rams drove downfield and took a 17-10 lead when Kyren Williams scored on a 5-yard touchdown run to the right side. The Bears had a long drive after that but the Rams had a goal-line stand, stopping three runs and then batting down a pass on fourth down to take over on downs.
The Rams couldn’t run out the rest of the clock and punted at the two-minute warning. A bad punt in the cold landed at the 50-yard line, giving the Bears great field position. And Chicago has been good at winning games with late heroics all season.
The Bears reached the 14-yard line. Williams, who has made huge plays under pressure all season, retreated to about the 40-yard line under pressure on fourth-and-4 and somehow lofted a pass all the way to an open Cole Kmet in the end zone.
The Rams thought there was a push-off by Kmet but there was no penalty called.
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In the wild-card round, Williams had some marvelous plays in a comeback win over the Packers. Another ridiculous highlight play by Williams on Sunday night led to a 17-17 tie with 18 seconds left.
The Bears, like the Bills did on Saturday at Denver, won the overtime coin toss and chose to kick off. The Rams were surprisingly conservative to start overtime, running three times and then punting. The Bears were moving when Williams tried a deep pass but was intercepted by Curl deep downfield.
Williams said the pick was a result of miscommunication on a route between him and Moore.
That got the Rams going. Stafford started completing passes and got the Rams into Bears territory. One third-and-6 he hit Nacua, who dragged Bears defenders for a 16-yard gain to the 27-yard line, within field-goal range. The Rams couldn’t get it much further but Mevis hit the field goal to win it.
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The last time the Rams played at Seattle, they led 30-14 with less than nine minutes left but couldn’t close out a win and ended up losing on a 2-point conversion by the Seahawks in overtime. Despite that loss, many still felt the Rams were the best team in the NFL and the correct pick to make it to Super Bowl LX out of the NFC. We’ll find out next Sunday.
Live coverage is over30 updates
Jason Owens
Jason Owens
What a game. What a season in Chicago.
Caleb Williams extended Chicago’s season with a miracle touchdown pass, then breathed new life back into the Rams with an interception in overtime. The Rams converted that chance into a game-winning field goal by Harrison Mevis, and they’re headed to the NFC championship to face the NFC West rival Seahawks.
A sensational season in Chicago, meanwhile, comes to a heartbreaking end.
Jason Owens
The Rams are going to the NFC championship game. Harrison Mevis is good from 42 yards, and the Rams have converted Caleb Williams’ overtime interception into a game-winning field goal.
The Rams are on to a championship matchup against the Seattle Seahawks.
Jason Owens
The Bears were driving after converting on fourth down near midfield.
But Kam Curl came up with a play that might have saved the Rams’ season. Curl ran under an underthrown ball from Williams downfield and picked it off for Williams’ third interception of the game.
The next score secures a trip to the NFC championship game, and Los Angeles has the ball back.
Jason Owens
The Bears stuffed the Rams on third-and-1 on the first possession of overtime and have the ball and a chance to win. The next score wins the game.
Chicago will start at its own 15-yard-line.
Jason Owens
This view of Williams’ touchdown prayer from the end zone is worth another look.
Jason Owens
Unreal. Caleb Williams keeps making these throws.
With the season on the line on fourth-and-4, Williams faced intense pressure from the Rams’ pass rush and threw a prayer off his back foot into the end zone. The prayer was answered.
Cole Kmet caught the 14-yard pass that traveled more than 40 yards in actual distance, and we’re headed to overtime.
Unbelievable.
Jason Owens
Caleb Williams has a chance to mount another comeback win. The Rams couldn’t run out the clock and punted back to the Bears while holding a 17-10 lead.
Chicago has the ball and needs a touchdown with 1:50 remaining in regulation. They’ll start with great field position at the 50 with a timeout in their pocket. Can Williams do it again?
Jason Owens
With less than 4 minutes remaining, the Bears faced first-and-goal from the 5 with their season potentially on the line. They did not convert.
After picking up 3 yards on two runs, the Bears looked to D’Andre Swift on third down. Quentin Lake leveled his leaping effort to cross the goal line with a devastating tackle in the air.
Then on fourth down, Caleb Williams threw incomplete into traffic into the end zone. The Rams have the ball and the chance to run out the clock with a 17-10 lead with 3:03 remaining and a trip to the NFC championship on the line.
Jason Owens
With points at a premium, the Rams didn’t kick a chip-shot field goal on fourth-and-1 from the 7. Instead, they ran an end-around for Puka Nacua, who powered his way for a first down.
One play later, Kyren Williams ran around the right edge for a 5-yard touchdown and a 17-10 lead with 8:50 remaining. If the Bears are going to win, they’ll need to mount another come-behind victory in the fourth quarter.
Jason Owens
The Bears looked to running back Kyle Monangai after Caleb Williams set them up with third-and-1 via a scramble. Jared Verse sniffed out the play.
The two-time Pro Bowl defender stuffed Monangai for a 1-yard loss, and the Bears opted to play the field-position game with a punt on fourth-and-2 from near midfield.
Neither team has gained traction in the second half, and the game remains tied at 10-10 early in the fourth quarter.
Jason Owens
So much for that.
Matthew Stafford threw 3 straight incompletions after the Cobie Durant interception, and the Rams didn’t move the ball from the 50-yard line. Chicago has the ball back after a punt.
The game’s locked in a 10-10 tie with 3 minutes remaining in the third quarter.
Jason Owens
Is this the mistake that changes the game?
Caleb Williams just threw his second interception to Cobie Durant. And unlike his first, it wasn’t on a downfield throw on fourth down.
Durant picked off Williams on second-and-15 at midfield, and the Rams have a prime opportunity to take the lead with 4:02 remaining in the game.
Jason Owens
We’re now at 3 first-half possessions and 3 punts. The Rams went 3-and-out after a first-down fumble resulted in an 8-yard loss, and the Bears have the ball back in a 10-10 game with 5:30 remaining in the third quarter.
Points are at a premium. How will these coaches handle fourth-down decisions as the game moves on?
Jason Owens
The Rams didn’t do much with the first drive of the second half and punted after gaining 19 yards. The Bears have the ball and the chance to take the lead.
Jason Owens
It was a relatively clean first half for both teams, with the only turnover of the game a Caleb Williams interception downfield on fourth-and-3.
Both teams have struggled to move the ball after impressive early touchdown drives. And both teams finished the first half with a field goal.
Chicago’s been more efficient on offense, but has turned the ball over twice on downs. Nobody’s blinked yet in the frigid Soldier Field conditions. This may come down to who makes the fewest mistakes in the second half.
Rams Matthew Stafford: 12 of 24, 144 yards, 0 TDs, 0 turnovers Kyren Williams: 6 carries, 24 yards, 1 TD; 4 catches for 30 yards Puka Nacua: 3 catches for 27 yards Jordan Whittington: 2 catches for 35 yards
Bears Caleb Williams: 13 of 19 for 155 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT D’Andre Swift: 6 carries for 33 yards Colston Loveland: 3 catches for 38 yards DJ Moore: 3 catches for 37 yards, 1 TD
Rams total offense: 148 yards on 4.4 yards per play Bears total offense: 210 yards on 6.4 yards per play
Rams: 0 for 0 on 4th down Bears: 1 for 3 on 4th down, 1 TD
Jason Owens
The Rams answered Chicago’s field goal with one of their own, and the game goes into halftime tied at 10-10.
Harrison Mevis was good from 32 yards at time expired to cap a nip-and-tuck first half.
Jason Owens
For the first time in four opportunities, Ben Johnson opted not to go for it on fourth down. Kicker Cairo Santos rewarded his confidence with a 48-yard field goal in suboptimal conditions on fourth-and-4, and the Bears have a 10-7 lead with 1:10 remaining in the first half.
Jason Owens
The Rams didn’t do much with the ball after forcing a turnover on downs. They punted back to the Bears after a 3-and-out, and the game remains tied at 7 late in the second quarter.
Jason Owens
On fourth-and-1 and facing a 50-yard field goal attempt in blustery Solider Field conditions, the Bears made the obvious decision and opted to go for it at the Los Angeles 32.
They did not get it. The Rams stuffed Kyle Monangai behind the line of scrimmage, and Los Angeles takes over on downs in a 7-7 game with 4:26 remaining in the first half.
The Bears are now 1 for 3 on fourth-down, with their successful attempt scoring a touchdown.
Jason Owens
The Bears got a stop after holding the Rams to 17 yards on their second possession and have the ball back in the second quarter with the chance to take the lead. The game’s tied at 7-7 midway through the second quarter.
Nate Tice, Matt Harmon & Charles McDonald join forces to give their instant takeaways from the NFL Divisional Round. The trio deep dive on all four playoff games from the weekend, starting with the Los Angeles Rams squeaking by a resilient Chicago Bears team in overtime. Next, the three hosts deep dive on the New England Patriots taking care of business against a sloppy Houston Texans team in a game that featured the most turnovers (8) in a playoff game since 2015.
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Nate, Matt and Charles move on to Saturday’s games, where the Seattle Seahawks dominated the San Francisco 49ers featuring a defense/run game combo that looks impossible to beat, and the Buffalo Bills got beat by a Denver Broncos team that has to head to New England with Jarrett Stidham as their starting quarterback.
The trio wrap up with their reactions to the Atlanta Falcons hiring new head coach Kevin Stefanski.
(2:30) – Rams beat Bears
(19:15) – Patriots beat Texans
(41:00) – Seahawks beat 49ers
(55:25) – Broncos beat Bills
(1:20:10) – Falcons hire Kevin Stefanski
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – JANUARY 18: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams warms up prior to the NFC Divisional playoff game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on January 18, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images)
There wasn’t much time. And with the Los Angeles Rams’ defensive line collapsing the pocket, there was even less space. Now Caleb Williams was sprinting backward with the football, committing a cardinal sin for NFL quarterbacks. Never exit the pocket by drifting — or worse yet, running — backward. There’s nothing but bad things waiting for a QB.
Yet, there the Chicago Bears quarterback went. With the ball shotgun-snapped at the Rams’ 14-yard line, Williams sprinted backward. Past the 25 … 30 … 35. Finally, at the 40, he planted his feet and unloaded a desperate spiral in the face of two pass rushers, while fading backward and falling to the Soldier Field grass.
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When Rams head coach Sean McVay speaks about the football gods going against you, what happened next is what he’s describing: Watching Williams throw an impossible, mythical — maybe extraterrestrial — pass that traveled 51.2 air yards, according to Next Gen Stats, and tucked into the arms of tight end Cole Kmet in the back of the end zone. A touchdown pass on fourth-and-4 with 18 seconds left that would erase a 17-10 Rams lead and push Los Angeles to the brink in Sunday’s divisional playoff game.
When the cameras cut to McVay, he looked like he needed a game official to administer a standing 8-count and ask him if he was OK to continue.
“Can you guys believe they made that play right there?” McVay asked reporters later.
Anyone in their right mind and decades of watching NFL football would say no — except for the fact that Williams had completed one of the most improbable fourth-and-8 plays in playoff history against the Green Bay Packers just one week earlier. And somehow, this one was more difficult. It was also a byproduct of some of McVay’s own doing, after he conservatively ran the ball four times into the teeth of the Bears’ defense and then punted, giving Williams one more possession late in the fourth quarter.
Afterward, McVay paced in his locker room and applauded his team’s resiliency, telling them: “There were so many things that went on in that game that you could have said, ‘Oh, man, maybe tonight’s not our night.’ But you didn’t f***kin’ believe it.”
Of course, it wasn’t pretty. The snow and cold weather appeared to have an impact on Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, who finished 20-for-42 passing, taking four sacks in the process and missing some uncharacteristically easy throws. Along the way, McVay struggled to get the Rams into rhythm, going into a running shell in the fourth quarter that took the ball out of Stafford’s hands. Then, in overtime, with the Rams getting the ball to begin the extra session, McVay called a halfback toss to Blake Corum on third-and-1, resulting in a 2-yard loss that blew up the Los Angeles drive and pushed all the momentum into Chicago’s favor.
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“No excuse for that [call],” McVay said later.
“Offensively, man, I did not do a very good job for our group tonight. But I thought our guys were able to overcome it. I thought we were able to be at our best in the most important moments, able to string together some drives.”
In a sign that should be encouraging heading into the third tilt with the Seahawks, McVay’s defense would bail him out multiple times. From forcing a turnover on downs when Chicago had a first-and-goal at the 2-yard line, to stopping the Bears on 3 of 5 fourth-down plays in regulation, to intercepting Williams three times over the course of the night — the Rams’ defense made critical plays at the most important moments for much of the night. Even the miraculous Williams touchdown was executed well by the front end of the Rams pass rush, only to be undone by a misplayed ball in the end zone by cornerback Cobie Durant, who lost Kmet on the play.
“I thought that was a great play by our defense, [but] just a better play by Caleb [and Kmet] — just a better play by those two guys,” Stafford said. “That happens in football.”
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And the defense made amends when it had to. Durant picked off Williams twice on the night, and with Chicago driving past midfield in overtime, safety Kam Curl laid out for an interception of Williams that changed the game. On the ensuing drive, McVay put the ball into the hands of Stafford, who completed critical passes to Davante Adams and Puka Nacua that eventually set up the game-winning field goal.
“That’s what it takes to win in the playoffs,” Stafford said “Sometimes offense can go out and have a great day and find a way to win it. Sometimes defense is going to go out there and have a day like they did today and keep us in it for as long as they did, and then make a play at the end to get the ball back.”
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Now the Rams will head to Seattle to face a Seahawks team that split the season series with Los Angeles — including a 21-19 home Rams win on Nov. 16 and then a wild 38-37 overtime victory for Seattle in Week 16. The latter of which led McVay to fire special teams coordinator Chase Blackburn following a series of miscues over the course of the season.
The Hurricanes already won a game as a big underdog against Ohio State earlier in the CFP, and they’ll need to do it again if they want to bring home their first college football title since 2001. On the other side, coach Curt Cignetti has led one of the more improbable turnarounds in college football and sports history, as it still feels odd to say that the Indiana Hoosiers are playing for a national championship.
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Can Miami pull off the big upset? Will the Hurricanes at least cover the 8.5-point spread?
Our college football handicapping team of Ed Feng and Matt Russell provide a best bet on Monday’s CFP title game.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM. This file will be updated.
Russell: The Hoosiers can win the national title without proving to be a historically great champion, but they can’t cover an 8.5-point spread without reaching that level. That’s how high Indiana’s rating in the betting market has gotten.
We’ve been told, throughout the season, that not only is this a new era of Indiana football, but that we shouldn’t get caught up in the branding of the higher-profile teams they’ve faced like Alabama and Oregon. That has proven to be a fair assessment, but what if the betting market still gave both too much credit?
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Many were calling for the Crimson Tide to miss the playoff after their decisive loss to Georgia in the SEC title game, and close wins over Penn State and Iowa somehow earned the Oregon Ducks the coveted No. 5 seed and a route to the semis with only JMU and an unproven Texas Tech offense in their way. It’s entirely possible that neither Alabama and Oregon are the top-10 teams they were proclaimed to be. If that’s the case, as we’ve seen in the past, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see a blowout in the playoff. Recent history is littered with them.
Indiana’s 3-point win over Ohio State might be its only meeting with a team that will end up rated in the top five nationally, until now.
Miami earned its way into the playoff by beating Notre Dame in Week 1, but it also deserved its No. 10 seed because of two head-scratching losses. When it comes to assessing the Hurricanes’ capability in any given game, the former is more important than the latter, and they’ve shown their class in winning at Texas A&M, beating Ohio State in a similar fashion as Indiana and getting by an Ole Miss team at the top of its game.
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We already learned last season that seed doesn’t equal strength. Both No. 7 Notre Dame and No. 8 Ohio State shook off head-scratching losses to make the title game. Indiana doesn’t have one of those, so their power rating in the market has done nothing but rise. Miami, and its handful of NFL first-round talent, can follow in the footsteps of the ‘24 Buckeyes, and fully recover to beat the Hoosiers outright. With a betting line of 8.5 points, though, we’ll leave some room for Indiana to finish its epic season with a championship in a closer game than the experts think, at least.
Feng: Let’s look at how this Indiana team has gotten lucky.
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Against Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, two key plays preserved a 3-point win:
Ohio State had a fourth-and-1 conversion overturned by replay. If QB Julian Sayin had kept his knee up a second longer, Ohio State probably scores a TD with a first-and-goal from the 4-yard line.
Ohio State missed a 27-yard field goal attempt.
Against Alabama in the playoff quarterfinal … never mind, there was no luck in that 38-3 beatdown.
In the playoff semifinal, Oregon gifted Indiana 28 points with a pick 6, two fumbles lost and a blocked punt that put the Indiana offense in the red zone. Oregon had a respectable 5.82 yards per play when the Ducks weren’t turning the ball over (5.71 YPP was the college football average).
It’s OK to have some luck in dominating your way to the championship game. In reality, Cignetti has done the greatest coaching job in college football history the past two seasons. Let’s look at the numbers:
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No. 1 in my member rankings by almost 2.5 points over Ohio State.
On offense, No. 1 in adjusted success rate, No. 2 in adjusted yards per play.
On defense, No. 3 in adjusted success rate, No. 9 in adjusted yards per play.
Miami will need to play its best game and get some breaks to have a chance at the upset. My numbers have Indiana by 8.0, so the market seems fair.
Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. has been excellent since returning from an injury. Fletcher probably won’t reach the 23 carries he got against Ole Miss because Indiana has a much better run defense and the game script might demand a lot of second-half throws. However, my rushing yards model predicts Fletcher to rush for 4.53 yards per carry after opponent adjustments based on my mathematical algorithms at The Power Rank. Assuming 18 carries, this gives 81.5 rushing yards for Fletcher.
2025 season record: 12-5, (o 11.5 wins), second in AFC East, lost to Broncos in divisional round, eighth in DVOA
Overview
So many things appeared to break right for the Bills. It was an AFC that featured down seasons from the Chiefs, Ravens and Bengals, all of whom missed the playoffs. Buffalo was a flawed team itself. The Bills had one of the worst run defenses in the league and a lack of juice at receiver constantly hampered Josh Allen, who was 23rd in average depth of completion. But the Bills never quite bottomed out like those other AFC contemporaries and still finished the season as a top-10 team by DVOA with an offense that was second in EPA per play.
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Of course, Buffalo’s path wasn’t easy with New England taking over the division, setting the Bills up for a new rivalry that could be active for years to come on top of the expected return to form from Buffalo’s prior contemporaries in the conference. And there was the old familiar playoff loss for Buffalo, which cost head coach Sean McDermott his job despite eight playoff berths in nine years and good work on the defensive side of the ball. The Bills kept — and promoted — general manager Brandon Beane, and promoted Joe Brady from offensive coordinator to head coach.
The franchise sent a clear message with the McDermott to Brady move: We have what it takes to win a Super Bowl, and we need a head coach who can do it. Step on up, Joe Brady. No pressure.
Cap/cuts outlook
The Bills have -$11 million in effective salary cap space, the seventh-lowest figure in the league. Curtis Samuel is the safest bet for a release, which would open up $6.25 million in cap space. The Bills could also move on from Dawson Knox, which would clear $9.7 million. There’s not a ton of room for big restructures to open up space for the Bills. A max restructure for Josh Allen would open up $12 million, and doing so for Spencer Brown would be another $10 million. On the plus side, the Bills have 47 players under contract, so it’s not as if available cap space will be needed for bottom-of-the-roster depth. That space could be used for more meaningful pieces.
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Key pending free agents
OL Connor McGovern OL David Edwards Edge Joey Bosa CB Tre’Davious White LB Matt Milano Edge A.J. Epenesa
Edwards was the best Bills offensive lineman by Sports Info Solutions’s blown block rate and he was 10th among interior linemen in ESPN’s run block win rate. McGovern ranked fifth among interior linemen in pass block win rate. Bosa gave the Bills what they needed as a veteran pass rusher off the edge, but like many Buffalo pass rushers this season, he didn’t convert as many hit opportunities into sacks as would be expected. White finished 10th among cornerbacks in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap and had an impressive bounce-back season in his return to Buffalo. Milano, recently one of the league’s top coverage linebackers, clearly lost a step on the field as a 31-year-old.
Few NFL-related things aged worse than general manager Brandon Beane’s insistence that upgrading at wide receiver was not a need for the Bills. It was clear throughout the season how much the Bills lacked a playmaking outside threat to open up the passing game. Keon Coleman averaged just 1.05 yards per route run against man coverage and was a healthy scratch multiple times this season. Khalil Shakir was the team’s best receiver, but he had only a 3.67-yard average depth of target.
With Joey Bosa and A.J. Epenesa set to be free agents, the Bills need another pass rusher across from Greg Rousseau. This was a team that signed Matthew Judon from the practice squad late in the season to get some pass-rush juice. Buffalo was 19th in pressure rate with a four-man rush.
Cole Bishop has developed into an impressive safety, but there’s been a hole next to him. Damar Hamlin missed time with injuries and Jordan Poyer was brought back. For a team that wants to play in two-high as much as the Bills have (at least under McDermott), a second safety is a necessity.
There always seems to be a temptation to cut corners and not credibly invest in pass-catchers when you have a Tier 1 player behind center. Your hope is that this player can elevate everyone around him. A fair ask of an elite quarterback but you also need to clear a minimum player-quality threshold. It’s quite apparent that the Bills have not come close to that in the last two seasons, especially in 2025. That must change in order for this team to get where it wants to go and for this to be an offensive ecosystem we want to invest in in fantasy football.
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Considering the track record, I’m skeptical that this front office can put aside its hubris and recognize what needs to be done. The best hope is that they change some of what they’re looking for at pass-catcher since the organization is already headed for a coaching staff makeover. — Matt Harmon
Good draft fit
Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
The Bills would do well with any of the projected first-round wideouts this season, but Tyson would give them a big-play threat over the middle and in the red zone, with a full route tree and availability to adjust to the football. Plus, his injury history might push him to the back half of the first round, where the Bills will pick.
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Betting nugget
Most of the Bills’ ATS this season came with a rest disadvantage, as Buffalo went 1-4 ATS in the regular season with less rest than its opponent. Conversely, the Bills were 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) with a rest advantage. — Ben Fawkes
The day after Indiana’s win over Oregon in the Peach Bowl the cheapest ticket for the Jan. 19 game on GameTime was over $3,500, including fees. The average ticket price was $5,589 — more than double the average price of last year’s game.
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Tickets went down in the days after the semifinals. Per GameTime, the get-in price on Thursday was just under $2,700 after two days of declines.
There are a couple of obvious reasons for the high prices. The game is at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens where Miami plays its home games. And the Hurricanes are playing for their first national championship since the 2001 season.
Indiana, meanwhile, has never won a national title in football. And its fans are enjoying every minute of its undefeated season. Hoosier fans flooded Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta for Friday night’s Peach Bowl blowout of Oregon. It’s not an exaggeration to say that more than 80% of the crowd was wearing red. Indiana has the largest living alumni base of any school in the country; there are lots of alums who would love to see their school play for a national title.
Ticket prices could come down as the game gets closer, but it seems very likely that this year’s game will set a record for the most expensive title game ever.
Who are the top names to watch on the head coaching market? Here’s your guide, with 11 guys with head coaching experience and eight who’d be first-time head coaches.
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Candidates with NFL head coaching experience
John Harbaugh, former Ravens head coach (Hired: Giants)
Baltimore decided to move on from John Harbaugh, which will no doubt delight the head coaching market. Harbaugh had just three losing seasons in 18 years with the Ravens, and won 193 games (including playoffs) as well as Super Bowl XLVII in the 2012 season. He was also Coach of the Year in 2019, and while he’s renowned for his intensity and asking a lot of his players and staff, he also has a reputation as being fair and getting the most out of anyone under his charge. It’s likely he’ll get another NFL head coaching shot, and soon, if he wants it.
Kevin Stefanski, former Browns head coach (Hired: Falcons)
Stefanski won Coach of the Year twice with the Browns from 2020-25 and led them to the playoffs each time, despite never having much in the way of quarterback play. Given all of Cleveland’s losing since the 1999 return, that might speak volumes to the market, who will value Stefanski’s offensive acumen and steady demeanor leading a franchise.
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Sean McDermott, former Buffalo Bills head coach
Seven straight 10-win seasons weren’t enough for Bills ownership, not with Josh Allen’s clock ticking away. But those seven straight 10-win seasons will certainly catch the eye of every owner still looking for a new head coach. Because while McDermott failed to get the Bills to the Super Bowl, he did get them to the playoffs in eight of his nine seasons in Buffalo.
Mike McDaniel, former Dolphins head coach
McDaniel’s time in Miami sputtered this season, but that doesn’t change the fact he brought playoff berths and wins to a franchise that’s struggled to get them this century. Nor does it change the fact he’s a respected offensive mind from the Shanahan tree, and will have no shortage of coordinator opportunities, at the very least.
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Robert Saleh, 49ers defensive coordinator
There’s a sense around the NFL that Saleh’s struggles with the Jets from 2021-24 were more a product of dysfunction within the organization at large. Everywhere he’s been, Saleh has run a top-tier defense when healthy and overachieved when not. He’s the type of strong leader franchises could covet.
Brian Daboll, former Giants head coach
Daboll didn’t demonstrate much promise his final three seasons with the Giants, but he did win Coach of the Year in 2022, and he’s still thought of highly in the Bills organization, where he helped develop Josh Allen before taking the Giants job. Maybe that means something to an NFL team with an opening, whether head coach or offensive coordinator.
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Brian Flores, Vikings defensive coordinator
Flores’ ongoing racial discrimination lawsuit against the NFL doesn’t seem to be cooling his market much. His Vikings defenses the past three years have only bolstered his reputation as a mastermind on that side of the ball, and he had two winning records in three seasons with the Dolphins from 2019-21. He has friends around the league — including in Las Vegas with the Raiders.
Mike McCarthy, former Cowboys and Packers head coach
McCarthy has 185 career wins and 12 winning seasons in 18 years as a head coach, along with eight division titles and a Super Bowl championship. He’s also a respected leader and offensive mind, and at 62 years old he figures to have close to another decade left of coaching in him. Say what you will about his weaknesses, but that’s a pretty attractive résumé.
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Matt Nagy, Chiefs offensive coordinator
The Titans have already requested an interview with Nagy, whose work as offensive coordinator with Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs dynasty helped rejuvenate his head coaching candidacy. Nagy is still just 47 years old and went 34-33 overall from 2018-2021 with the Bears, including two playoff appearances. Is he about to get another shot as a head coach?
Steve Spagnuolo, Chiefs defensive coordinator
Spagnuolo has built himself a Hall of Fame-worthy legacy as a defensive coordinator with the Giants and now Chiefs. His first stint as a full-time head coach from 2009-11 with the then-St. Louis Rams ended with a 10-38 record, and he’s on the older side having just turned 66. But his creative, aggressive schemes and ability to maximize talent in Kansas City the past few years have drawn the attention of the league, including the Titans, who requested to speak with him.
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Kliff Kingsbury, former Commanders offensive coordinator
The Commanders have moved on from Kingsbury, who helped quarterback Jayden Daniels win Offensive Rookie of the Year in a memorable 2024 campaign. He went 28-38-1 overall with one playoff appearance as head coach of the Cardinals from 2019-22, and he also (say it with us) coached Patrick Mahomes in college at Texas Tech. Somebody, somewhere feels like they’ll give the 46-year-old Kingsbury another head coaching shot in the NFL. Will it be this cycle?
First-time NFL head coaching candidates
Klint Kubiak, Seahawks offensive coordinator
The Seahawks’ offense has been as explosive as any in the NFL this season, which is largely being credited to Kubiak. He’s gotten the most out of Sam Darnold, who can make any throw in the playbook when given time, and he’s helped Jaxson Smith-Njigba become an Offensive Player of the Year candidate. Kubiak is a 38-year-old Shanahan tree disciple and the son of former Super Bowl-winning head coach. That figures to check quite a few boxes in the hiring process. The Falcons are reportedly interested in speaking with him.
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Jesse Minter, Chargers defensive coordinator
Minter has been Jim Harbaugh’s defensive coordinator the past four years between Michigan and the Chargers. He’s only 42 years old, his units have been unpredictable and tough to play against, and he’s lauded as one of the best defensive play-callers in the NFL. Minter also has a calm but commanding demeanor that could translate easily to leading a franchise.
Chris Shula, Rams defensive coordinator
One of the leading candidates for Assistant Coach of the Year, Shula’s defense has been top-five in DVOA this season and performed admirably in other advanced metrics. Just 39 years old, he’s has worked under Sean McVay with the Rams ever since McVay was hired in 2017. (And yes, Shula is Don’s grandson.) Shula has already been connected to the perennially stable Steelers franchise whenever they move on from Mike Tomlin. How’s that for high praise as a candidate?
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Klayton Adams, Cowboys offensive coordinator
The Cowboys’ high-flying offense caught the NFL’s attention this season, and Adams was a driving force behind it. He came to Dallas last offseason after two years as offensive line coach with the Cardinals — OL coaches are becoming more and more venerated as overall offensive minds and play-callers around the league — and he maximized the Cowboys’ run game despite limited resources, to say nothing of Dak Prescott and the explosive passing game. Another year in Dallas might do him well, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if teams interview him this cycle.
Grant Udinski, Jaguars offensive coordinator
Trevor Lawrence seemed to finally consistently live up to his potential the second half of the regular season, and that falls largely on Udinski, whom head coach Liam Coen hired from Kevin O’Connell’s staff in Minnesota. How’s that for mentorship? Udinski turns 30 this month and might be a year away from truly emerging as a candidate, but he deserves plenty of credit for Jacksonville’s turnaround.
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Jeff Hafley, Packers defensive coordinator
Hafley has emerged as a candidate thanks to his leadership, communication skills and defensive acumen. He immediately improved the Packers’ defense his first year as coordinator in 2024, and this year’s unit had occasional stretches looking like one of the NFL’s best before injuries to Micah Parsons, Devonte Wyatt and others took some toll. That doesn’t figure to hinder teams’ interest.
Joe Brady, Bills offensive coordinator
Brady has been on a part of the Bills’ staff that’s overseen Josh Allen’s ascendance, serving as offensive coordinator the past two seasons. He’s just 36 years old, and young offensive minds will always be en vogue. This might be the year he finally gets a head coaching shot.
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Lou Anarumo, Colts defensive coordinator
The Titans have asked permission to speak with Anarumo, who was the Bengals’ defensive coordinator from 2019-24, including their Super Bowl trip in 2021. His effectiveness on that side of the ball despite dwindling talent in a cheap organization earned him leaguewide respect, and his Colts defense was solid this season before injuries caught up to teams as a whole. Expect the 59-year-old to be linked to multiple jobs.
It’s rare for teams to lose in overtime of the NFL’s divisional round and fire their head coach. But the clock is ticking on getting Josh Allen to a Super Bowl.
Sean McDermott was fired Monday morning, about 36 hours after his team lost 33-30 to the Denver Broncos in overtime. It’s hard to put all the blame on McDermott, especially for a roster that had serious flaws all season and asked Allen to do it all. But the Bills obviously thought something had to happen, even after making the playoffs seven straight seasons.
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It’s hard to lay it all on Allen either, though he is the one whose legacy is debated every day.
AAllen put the blame on himself in an emotional interview with the media after the Bills’ loss, and he had some key mistakes in a loss to the Broncos. Also, the Bills wouldn’t be anywhere near the playoffs without Allen, and everyone knows it.
There isn’t a lot of help around Allen. General manager Brandon Beane has gotten upset at the inference that Allen doesn’t have enough help, particularly at receiver, but it’s a valid criticism. The defense has been up and down the past couple seasons too. Yet, Beane stays on while McDermott got fired. That’s curious.
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Whether we want to blame Allen or the situation around him for the latest loss doesn’t matter that much. What matters is how the Bills get to a Super Bowl in Allen’s prime. It’s hard to imagine Allen doing more than he has through the years, even though he deserves some criticism for the turnovers at Denver. That means Buffalo needs to find ways to upgrade around him. The franchise identified the first area that needed to be fixed, and unfortunately for McDermott it was the head-coaching spot.
Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott was fired after a loss to the Broncos in the divisional round. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Here are the rest of the winners and losers from the divisional round of the NFL playoffs:
WINNERS
Mike Macdonald: The San Francisco 49ers’ offense was nearly unstoppable in December. The Seattle Seahawks held the 49ers to without a single touchdown in eight quarters against them in January.
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For a few years, every NFL team with a head-coaching opening seemed to be looking to hire the hottest offensive mind available. Teams in this cycle might see the light on the assistants having success stopping those offenses. Defensive coordinators like Chris Shula, Jesse Minter and Matt Burke, who are all hot candidates this month, might owe Mike Macdonald a bit of gratitude.
Macdonald, the head coach of the Seahawks, has delivered exactly what Seattle hoped for and far beyond in his second season. He has Seattle one home win from Super Bowl LX, and Macdonald’s defense is leading the way. The Seahawks’ defense ranked 25th in points allowed in 2023, 11th last season when Macdonald arrived and first this season. The Seahawks made those major leaps without having any Defensive Player of the Year candidates. They have very good players but a lot of the success is due to Macdonald’s scheme, which got him on the head-coaching radar when he was the Baltimore Ravens’ defensive coordinator.
Macdonald’s defense tied up 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan, perhaps the NFL’s best offensive play caller. Brock Purdy had just 127 and 140 passing yards in his two most recent matchups against Seattle, a Week 18 loss and the divisional playoff blowout. The Seahawks won 41-6 on Saturday night to move on to the NFC championship game. Seattle wasn’t expected to even win the NFC West this season but has been the best team in the NFL from the start of the regular season through the divisional round. Macdonald has been a massive part of that quick turnaround. He made a smart hire of Klint Kubiak (another hot head-coaching candidate) as his offensive coordinator before this season which took care of that side of the ball. It’s hard to take over after a franchise icon, but Macdonald has reenergized the Seahawks after they started to slip near the end of the Pete Carroll era.
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Macdonald isn’t the only defensive-minded head coach having success. Mike Vrabel has the New England Patriots in the conference championship round too. DeMeco Ryans has lifted the Houston Texans in his three seasons there. McDermott had been a playoff mainstay, though his time is up: The Bills fired him Monday morning after failing to get Buffalo to a Super Bowl in the Josh Allen era.
Even if McDermott couldn’t get Buffalo over the playoff hump despite many wins through the years, Macdonald has shown that not every team needs to be chasing a hot offensive play caller to have success. The tide is turning. Defensive coaches are back in style again.
Jarrett Stidham: Stidham clearly didn’t want to see Bo Nix get hurt. Nobody roots for injuries, particularly to a teammate. Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton said Stidham and Nix are close friends, as well.
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Yet, think of the situation Stidham finds himself in.
Nix’s season-ending injury, suffered late in the Broncos’ thrilling 33-30 overtime win over the Bills, puts Stidham in the starting lineup for the AFC championship game. It will be just the fifth start of his six-year NFL career. Payton said he has full confidence in Stidham, who he said could start for a handful of other teams. All Stidham has to do to go from a little-known backup to an overnight phenomenon is help Denver win two more games. Even winning one game will carve out a place in NFL history. It won’t be easy, but not impossible with a very good defense on his side and also a great coach in Payton.
There have been plenty of good but unmemorable quarterbacks through the years. But we remember quarterbacks like Jeff Hostetler, Trent Dilfer and Nick Foles, who took over in adverse situations and were the starting quarterbacks in a Super Bowl win. Foles already made the connection with a funny social media message regarding Stidham on Sunday.
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Stidham didn’t ask for this and presumably if he had his way, his good friend Nix would be starting this weekend. But he has an opportunity that is practically unprecedented. The quarterback with four career starts, who hasn’t thrown a pass in either of the past two regular seasons, can become a legend if Denver wins two more games.
The Patriots wrecked Justin Herbert and the Chargers in the wild-card round, holding Los Angeles to three points. In the divisional round the Texans had just 241 yards and New England forced five turnovers, including a pick 6 by cornerback Marcus Jones. A lot has and will be made about C.J. Stroud melting down and what it might mean going forward, but the Patriots had a lot to do with those mistakes.
New England had a fantastic breakout season, and the defense was a big part of that. It has gotten better in the playoffs. And all the Patriots need to do is beat a team forced into using its backup quarterback to get back to a Super Bowl.
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Caleb Williams: Williams did more to elevate his reputation in the playoffs than any other player, even the ones who are still alive for the conference championship games.
Quarterbacks always get too much attention and that is especially true in the playoffs. What will be remembered from this Chicago Bears playoff run is the dramatic comebacks Williams had, including two highlights that will help start to define his NFL career. His fourth-down pass to Rome Odunze against the Packers was remarkable, and he might have outdone himself with a fourth-down touchdown in the final minute to Cole Kmet to send the divisional round game against the Rams to overtime. That comeback didn’t end up in a Bears win, and Williams’ overtime interception was a big key to the Rams’ win.
It’s not like Williams’ turnover in overtime should be ignored, but the Bears were already playing with house money at the end of a huge season for the franchise. Williams has completed just two NFL seasons. The Bears should feel like something special is coming together.
LOSERS
What’s next for 49ers and Texans: Both teams had good seasons. The 49ers dealt with numerous big injuries and overcame them to win 12 regular-season games and a playoff game. The Texans shook off a slow start to win 10 in a row, including a wild-card round playoff win.
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But the offseasons for each won’t be that easy.
For San Francisco, it’s another year down the line for a core that is aging. And some players like Nick Bosa and George Kittle are coming off major injuries. Christian McCaffrey is coming off a massive 450-touch season and will be 30 years old. We saw Saquon Barkley take a big step back this past season after a 482 touches the season before. It’s worth keeping an eye on. The 49ers will have to keep retooling the roster, especially on defense, and do it around some huge contracts.
The Texans’ issue is a lot different. The postseason was alarming for C.J. Stroud, who had a great rookie season and has not recaptured that in the two seasons since. Stroud was bad in the wild-card round and the Texans overcame it, and he was worse in the divisional round and Houston couldn’t make up for it. They lost to the Patriots with Stroud throwing four interceptions including a bad pick-6.
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The Texans will surely pick up Stroud’s fifth-year option, and they’ll likely work out an extension soon, but the confidence in him has to be waning even if coach DeMeco Ryans backed him after Sunday’s game. They need to figure out how to get Stroud back to his rookie year form, if they can.
Houston and San Francisco have better foundations than many of the teams already into their offseasons. But there are still some big questions awaiting each of them.
Caleb Williams had just thrown a contender for the most miraculous touchdown in NFL history, a beyond-desperate, off-the-back-foot, huck-it-deep 50-plus-yard moon shot that landed in the hands of Cole Kmet with only seconds remaining in their divisional round playoff game. Williams’ Bears were one extra point away from tying the Rams with the most improbable play imaginable, a play that surely stunned all of the millions watching, either on TV or on the field.
The Bears hadn’t just risen from the grave, they’d clawed their way out through six feet of dirt. All that remained was that one extra point.
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But why not go for 2? Why not shove the Rams right off the cliff, right then and there?
Let’s start with the dream-big possibilities and work our way down to field level. If Chicago had gone for 2 and won, the Bears would be one game away from a Super Bowl where they would be facing either a second-year quarterback or an injury-replacement one. There are no gimmes in the NFL, but either New England or Denver would have presented a favorable matchup for Chicago. (Yes, the Bears would have needed to get past the Seahawks — who just decimated the same San Francisco team that beat Chicago in Week 17 — but again, we’re dreaming big here.)
Throughout the season, Ben Johnson has been aggressive with his play calling, but with the season on the line, opted to go for overtime in the Bears divisional round game against the Rams. (Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images)
(Brooke Sutton via Getty Images)
Ask Aaron Rodgers or Dan Marino how many bites you get at that Super Bowl apple. They played a combined 38 seasons and each reached the Super Bowl just once … and they’re two of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. Despite what Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes would have you believe, legitimate Super Bowl chances don’t come around often.
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Now, as for this specific game itself — momentum, if you believe in such a concept, would scream to go for 2, to keep the pressure on Los Angeles, to flip that sudden disbelief into heartbreak. It sure seems like the right play, going all-in on your season … especially if it’s not your chips you’re pushing to the middle of the table.
But Ben Johnson is paid a whole lot of money not to think with his heart. You could see it on the replays after the miraculous touchdown; he was as stoic as if he was dropping off a library book. He knew the job wasn’t anywhere near done, even if that touchdown opened up options he didn’t have just a few seconds earlier.
Johnson knew that for all the exuberance of that miracle, you can’t exactly count on miracles to come your way. And he was thinking about what Chicago had done before in similar goal-to-go situations in the previous 59 minutes, 47 seconds, even when the game wasn’t on the line. And he knew, therefore, that an all-or-nothing 2-point conversion wasn’t the way to go.
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“Probably what played a little bit of a factor [in the decision to kick] was our goal-to-go situations hadn’t gone very cleanly, our inside-the-5 plan hadn’t worked out like we hoped,” he said after the game. “I just felt better about taking our chances there in overtime.”
Less than three minutes earlier, Chicago had faced first-and-goal at the Los Angeles 5. Three straight inconsequential runs by De’Andre Swift and a failed fourth-down pass by Williams surely played heavily in Johnson’s decision.
(Also worth noting: the Rams still had 13 seconds and two timeouts left. Two chunk plays, or one and a penalty, and Los Angeles would have been in position for a game-winning field goal.)
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So Chicago opted for the conservative approach, living to fight another few minutes … and then saw their season fall apart on an ugly interception and a defensive breakdown. And thus Williams-to-Kmet joins plays like Kurt Warner’s 62-yard touchdown pass to Larry Fitzgerald in Super Bowl XLIII and Julio Jones’ toe-tap sideline grab in Super Bowl LI as one of the greatest plays that ultimately didn’t make a difference in the outcome.
Where does that leave the Chicago Bears? Firmly in “don’t cry that it’s over, smile that it happened” territory. You can’t build a foundation on miracle plays like Williams-to-Kmet, but you can build a vibe on them. The never-give-up, never-give-in attitude of this Bears team is contagious and necessary for postseason success, and the team can take the lessons it learned from this season forward into the coming years.
Williams will be in only his third season as a pro in 2026. He’s 24 years old. Think about how he could be performing in his 27-, 28-, 29-year seasons. There’s no guarantee he’ll progress at the same rate, or that the Bears will continue thriving in the postseason — see: Rodgers and Marino, above — but this is about as good a situation as Bears fans can hope for in the current NFL.
Years from now, if Chicago’s lucky, Williams-to-Kmet will be the first highlight in a long series of them … and it won’t matter what happened right afterward, because so much better was on the way.
