Amid expectations of a more hawkish Fed after the last meeting and growing concerns about Strategy’s $BTC sale, Bitcoin is currently stuck in a narrow range.
While these factors negatively impact $BTC’s rise, there is also the risk of a bearish flag formation.
According to one analyst, $BTC is forming a bearish flag pattern and could fall to $54,000.
According to CoinDesk, crypto analyst Dr. Profit, using a pseudonym, argues that Bitcoin is forming a bearish flag pattern on its daily chart.
According to the analyst, the bearish flag formation in $BTC could initially lead to a drop to the $54,000-$56,000 range. The analyst believes that the decline initiated by the bearish flag could continue down to $40,000, and the price could ultimately bottom out between $40,000 and $50,000.
The analyst notes that the forecast is based on the drop from the May peak of $82,000 to below $60,000 in June, and then the subsequent rebound to $68,000.
“Bitcoin is currently forming a large bearish flag pattern on the daily timeframe. My prediction is a drop to the $54-56,000 level first, followed by sideways movement, then another drop, with the bottom near the $40,000-$50,000 level.”
The analyst attracted attention by correctly predicting that the peak of the $BTC bull market would be at $126,000, followed by a wave of selling.
A similar prediction came from on-chain analyst Axel Adler. According to the analyst, Bitcoin has not yet reached its true bottom.
Axel Adler analyzed that Bitcoin’s supply structure resembles past cycle lows, but fundamental indicators have not yet confirmed a definitive bottom formation.
Adler explained that the supply held by long-term investors has increased to approximately 12.17 million $BTC, which has eased selling pressure in the market. However, Adler noted that this amount is still below the 15 million to 19.7 million $BTC held by long-term investors at previous bear market lows. The supply held by long-term investors rose to approximately 15 million $BTC at the 2015 low, approximately 16 million $BTC at the 2018-2019 low, and approximately 19.7 million $BTC at the 2022-2023 low.
Adler believes the market is currently in a phase of redistribution and consolidation rather than a completed bottom formation.
He added that to confirm $BTC’s bottom, the supply of long-term investors would need to exceed 15 million $BTC.
*This is not investment advice.
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