Bitcoin Price Prediction Breaks Out As Treasury Doubles Bond Buyback Program

The $BTC price prediction turns constructive after price broke decisively out of a months-long consolidation pattern, touching levels not seen since early June. The move triggered the largest wave of forced short covering in crypto’s history, even bigger than the shorts wiped out during last October’s record crash.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Will Bitcoin Price Go Up After Breaking the Bear Market Resistance Band?

$BTC has spent since late May consolidating inside a symmetric triangle, bouncing between roughly $58,000 and $67,000 as the range steadily narrowed. Price broke sharply above that triangle’s upper boundary this week, surging from Wednesday’s low near $64,100 to touch nearly $69,900, a move of more than $5,700 in a single session.

The Parabolic SAR flipped bullish at $62,819.37, confirming the shift in short term trend. All four EMAs now sit below current price for the first time in months, with the 20-day at $64,919.13 marking the nearest support, followed by the 50-day at $64,720.72 and the 100-day at $66,446.68. The 200-day EMA at $71,479.33 sits just overhead and is the next real hurdle.

Why Cowen Says Bitcoin Faces a Real Test Here?

Analyst Benjamin Cowen framed the move as Bitcoin rallying back into what he calls the bear market resistance band, a zone that has capped every recovery attempt this cycle.

Cowen noted Bitcoin has closed above its 200-day moving average, historically a mixed signal, sometimes preceding a real trend change and sometimes a false start followed by another leg down, as seen in parts of 2014, 2019, and 2022.

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He said the real test is whether Bitcoin can push through this band and hold it as support on a retest, rather than simply topping out here again.

$BTC Support and Resistance Levels, August 20, 2026

Bitcoin News: Shorts Lose $2.74 Billion in Largest Squeeze on Record

Traders betting against Bitcoin lost nearly $2.74 billion in 24 hours as price surged toward $70,000, the largest wave of forced short closures in records going back to 2021, according to CoinGlass data. Total liquidations across all crypto reached almost $3 billion across more than 172,000 traders, with shorts accounting for roughly 92% of that total against just $257 million on the long side, a ratio of more than ten to one.

The comparison that gives the figure its weight is October 2025, when Bitcoin crashed days after hitting a record above $126,000, producing $19 billion in liquidations in a single day, still the largest deleveraging event in crypto history. Shorts made up $2.47 billion of that crash. Wednesday’s short liquidations were larger than that entire figure, without any comparable damage on the long side.

The squeeze was fast and concentrated. More than $1 billion in Bitcoin shorts closed in roughly an hour, totaling $1.42 billion for the full day. Ether shorts accounted for $1.13 billion and Solana $104.67 million. The single largest position wiped out was a $48.8 million Bitcoin trade on Hyperliquid.

Bitcoin News: Treasury Doubles Bond Buybacks, Trump Pushes Clarity Act

Analyst Joe Consorti pointed to a Treasury announcement as the direct trigger for Bitcoin’s move, noting the Treasury will buy back $4 billion of long-term government debt to boost liquidity, double its prior $2 billion pace for bonds maturing in 10 to 30 years. Traders read the move as inflationary and bullish for hard assets like Bitcoin, sending bond yields lower and the dollar index down 0.8%.

Separately, President Trump called on Congress to pass the Clarity Act, describing the crypto market structure legislation as powerful and necessary to keep the U.S. ahead of China and other countries in space.

Bitcoin Derivatives: Watch Whether $69,000 Holds

With the bulk of short positioning now cleared out, the key question is whether Bitcoin can hold above $69,000 through the coming sessions.

A squeeze this large removes the very positioning that fueled the rally, and moves built heavily on forced buying rather than fresh organic demand have historically given back some of their gains once the squeeze pressure fades.

$BTC Price Prediction: Upside and Downside Targets

Bullish Case, Target: $71,479.33 (200-day EMA)

$BTC holds above $69,000 through the Asian and European sessions, confirming the breakout wasn’t just a short squeeze fading out. Treasury liquidity support and progress on the Clarity Act add fundamental tailwinds, while a daily close that holds the bear market resistance band as support, the scenario Cowen flagged as the key signal, would strengthen the case for continuation. Clearing this zone opens the path toward the 200-day EMA at $71,479.33.

Bearish Case, Risk Level: $64,720.72 (50-day EMA)

Bitcoin gets rejected at the bear market resistance band once again, consistent with the pattern Cowen highlighted from 2018 and 2022, where similar sized rallies into August ultimately failed and gave way to lower prices later in the year. With short covering fuel now spent, the rally loses momentum without fresh buying to replace it, and $BTC falls back through the 20-day EMA at $64,919.13 toward the 50-day EMA at $64,720.72.

Conclusion

This rally has two distinct engines, a Treasury liquidity move that gave bulls a real fundamental reason to buy, and a short squeeze that then amplified the move mechanically once price

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