Bitcoin’s recent crash below $60,000 have put crypto trader believe the market is still far from its final bottom. Perhaps on-chain trader Winter Soldier says Bitcoin is still searching for a true bottom and could fall below $35,000 if selling pressure continues.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $63,000, keeping investors cautious about a possible further decline.
$50K Won’t Be Bitcoin’s Bottom, More Downside Coming
Nearly 65% of prediction market participants on Polymarket and Kalshi market now expect Bitcoin to fall below $50,000 this year. Meanwhile, 1% of traders expect Bitcoin to fall below $40,000.
Ironically, Winter Soldier, is exactly why he’s skeptical. He compared the current setup to the 2022 bear market, when many traders confidently called $28,000 the bottom. Bitcoin eventually fell to $15,000 before finding support.
“Price rarely moves the way the crowd wants it to.”
In his view, a move below $50,000 remains likely, with the possibility of Bitcoin entering the $35,000 region before a true Bitcoin bottom hits.
At the same time, Winter Soldier says selling pressure is rising as whales moved 14,600 $BTC into exchanges on June 4–6, and deposits jumped from 1,200 to 2,800 $BTC.
At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs saw 4 straight weeks of outflows ($5.4B), with holdings dropping from $106.6B to $75.1B in a month.
Could Bitcoin Really Hit $35K?
Adding to the bearish outlook, crypto analyst Anup Dhungana pointed out that Bitcoin could revisit the $30,000–$35,000 range if it follows the same pattern seen in previous market cycles.
Historically, Bitcoin has experienced drawdowns of nearly 70% from its cycle highs, and a similar decline from the current cycle peak would place $BTC near a major long-term support zone.
However, Dhungana also noted that the market structure has changed over the past few years. Institutional investors, spot ETFs, and broader adoption could reduce the chances of another deep 70% collapse.
$45K Is More Realistic Downside
However, not every trader agrees that Bitcoin is heading toward the low-$30,000 range. Crypto trader Elijah believes the bearish forecasts may be exaggerated, increasing the downside risk.
He said he was surprised that 31% of traders expect Bitcoin to fall below $40,000, arguing that many are focusing on fear rather than market structure.
According to Elijah, Bitcoin has repeatedly survived liquidity shocks, forced liquidations, and periods of extreme panic throughout its history.
Rather than a collapse below $40,000, Elijah believes a more realistic downside scenario would place Bitcoin’s bottom somewhere between $42,000 and $45,000.
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