Bitcoin’s Decline Continues: When Will the Drop End?

Popular cryptocurrency market analyst Benjamin Cowen has examined Bitcoin’s (BTC) price movements and historical cycles.

Cowen stated that Bitcoin has fallen below the bear market resistance band, a critical threshold on the daily chart, and faces the risk of remaining below the bull market support band (around $74,000, which is the 20-week moving average) on the weekly close.

Cowen argued that the “midterm election years” following halving cycles in cryptocurrency are always challenging, reminding that these periods are inherently bearish. The analyst stated, “These years are filled with bear market rallies where emotions peak and investors are once again driven into FOMO. However, the market has historically played exactly as it should so far.”

Cowen stated that while there was strong continuity behind the rallies in 2023, the current movement has failed to gain sustained upward momentum, and that the recent rallies before today’s decline were one of the “false breakouts” frequently seen in intervening years.

The renowned analyst also shed light on the question of why Bitcoin lost value while stock markets rose, attributing the situation to macroeconomic factors and the risk curve:

“Bitcoin sits much higher on the risk curve compared to stocks. Renewed inflation concerns have put previously priced-in interest rate cuts on hold. In fact, the market is now starting to price in interest rate increases. This will continue to create a macroeconomic obstacle for Bitcoin over the next few months.”

According to Cowen, a bottom in the market requires investors to psychologically give up (time-focused surrender) rather than focusing on where the price falls. Drawing a roadmap based on historical data, the analyst stated, “Historically, June tends to be a weak month in the interim years. During this period, a local bottom could be seen in the summer months (likely June or July).” According to the analyst, a short-term recovery could occur after this bottom at the end of summer.

According to the analyst, a final wave of decline may occur in September or October. It is highly probable that the main market bottom of the cycle will occur in the last quarter (Q4) of 2026.

Cowen stated that bears are actually “bulls waiting in the wings,” and if lower levels are seen later in the year, this should be seen as an opportunity to take positions, not to mock the bulls.

Referring to his own analysis strategy, Cowen concluded by saying, “I won’t change my mind with every small rally. But you’ll see my tone change significantly as we get to the last quarter of the year (Q4). That’s when I’ll start to be much more optimistic about Bitcoin.”

*This is not investment advice.