Game 1 turned when Jalen Brunson began attacking James Harden on almost every single Knicks possession.
NEW YORK — When the New York Knicks lost last year’s Eastern Conference Finals in six games, one had to wonder if things would have been different if the Indiana Pacers didn’t pull off a miraculous comeback in the fourth quarter of Game 1. The Knicks led by 17 with a little more than six minutes left, but then saw Aaron Nesmith go 6-for-6 from 3-point range in the final five minutes and Tyrese Haliburton make a game-tying shot that bounced 20 feet in the air before dropping through the net.
The Knicks themselves pulled of a similarly miraculous comeback in the fourth quarter of Game 1 of this year’s Eastern Conference Finals, coming back from 22 points down with a little less than eight minutes left and beating the Cleveland Cavaliers in overtime. And one has to wonder if those eight minutes will be what, ultimately, determines which one of these teams go to the Finals.
The Cavs certainly hope not, and they won their last series after losing the first two games on the road. But winning four of the next six games against the Knicks, who’ve now won eight straight, will be the Cavs’ toughest task of the season.
Here are three things to watch in Game 2 on Thursday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN):
1. Brunson vs. Harden
Game 1 turned when Jalen Brunson began attacking James Harden on almost every single Knicks possession. The Knick who Harden was guarding would set a screen for Brunson, the Cavs would give them the switch they wanted, and Brunson would go to work.
According to tracking data, Harden was the screener’s defender on 24 ball-screens for Brunson on Tuesday, with 20 of them coming in the final eight minutes of the fourth quarter plus overtime. The Knicks scored an efficient 1.39 points per chance (32/23) when that happened, including an amazing 29 on 18 (1.61 per) when the ball-screen action led directly to a shot, turnover or trip to the line.
Switching those screens can flatten out the Knicks’ offense and suppress their ball movement, while taking some time of the clock. And it’s long been Harden’s preferred coverage, as he’s not one for hedging and recovering, which is what Brunson is usually doing when he’s targeted on the other end of the floor.
But Brunson is one of the best isolation scorers in the league, and he clearly likes the matchup with Harden, even if not all of those possessions were blow-bys. There were some tough shots in that comeback …
The Cavs’ adjustment (after eight straight scores from the Knicks) was to have Brunson’s defender (Sam Merrill) “ice” the screen to keep Brunson from using it. Harden dropped back to slow Brunson’s drive and allow Merrill to get back in front of his man. But Brunson made the right play, Harden had a long distance to recover, and OG Anunoby was able to drive by him and draw a foul …
Defending one-on-one didn’t work, and putting two on the ball created open shots and driving lanes for the other four Knicks.
There is no easy answer for the Cavs. The best answer may be for Harden to do a better job of staying in front of Brunson or be quicker to recover out of a double-team situation. Neither of those options may be possible, however.
2. Shamet vs. Hart
The Knicks’ entire comeback came with Landry Shamet on the floor instead of Josh Hart.
Hart is an important player for the Knicks, a tough defender, a terrific rebounder, and a guy that fuels their transition game. He’s also been a much improved shooter this season, but Shamet makes the Knicks harder to defend, especially with how the Cavs want to match up.
When all 10 starters were on the floor, Dean Wade defended Brunson and Evan Mobley was on Karl-Anthony Towns. That allowed the Cavs to switch the Brunson-Towns pick-and-roll, because Mobley is mobile enough to stay with Brunson, while Wade is big enough to defend Towns.
Hart was defended by Jarrett Allen, who mostly left Hart alone on the perimeter. Hart shot 41% from 3-point range in the regular season, but he is 12-for-45 (27%) in the playoffs after shooting 1-for-5 on Tuesday. The Cavs will likely leave him alone (at least) until he makes a few in a row.
They can’t leave Shamet alone. He actually shot a little worse from 3-point range than Hart did in the regular season, but he is now 13-for-26 (50%) in the playoffs after making all three of his attempts in Game 1. With Shamet on the floor instead of Hart, the Cavs’ bigs aren’t able to just hang around the paint and protect the rim, because the Knicks have five guys who must be respected on the perimeter.
In Game 1 …
- The Knicks scored just 28 points on 35 offensive possessions (0.80 per) with all five starters on the floor.
- They scored 44 points on 25 offensive possessions (1.76 per) with Shamet on the floor with the other four starters.
Those are small sample sizes and the latter number was mostly about the Brunson-Harden matchup, but we could certainly see extended minutes for Shamet in Game 2.
3. The Knicks’ defense will bend …
The final 13 minutes were one-sided, but over the entirety of Game 1, the Cavs got better shots than the Knicks:
- Cleveland had an expected effective field-goal percentage of 54.9%, but it had an actual effective field-goal percentage of just 48.9%.
- New York had an expected effective field-goal percentage of 50.8% (their worst mark of the playoffs), but it had an actual effective field-goal percentage of 53.4%.
The Knicks had more shots in the restricted area, but after dunks and layups, the best shots on the floor are corner 3s. And the Cavs had 16 attempts from the corners, their high in these playoffs.
While Harden was the Knicks’ favorite target with ball screens for Brunson, Towns and Brunson were the Cavs’ favorite targets with ball screens for Harden and Donovan Mitchell. Unlike the Cavs, the Knicks were usually not willing to give up those switches. Instead, they temporarily put two on the ball.
That allowed the Cavs to find open 3s on the weak side of the floor …
After the game, Cavs coach Kenny Atkinson lamented that his team’s offense “got a little stagnant” as the Knicks made their comeback. One issue may have been a lack of spacing. While the Cavs are willing to ignore Hart on the perimeter, the Knicks are (mostly) willing to do the same with Mobley.
Only six of Mobley’s 16 field-goal attempts in Game 1 came in the paint, and he had just two free-throw attempts. The Cavs need him to play bigger offensively, but they should continue to get good shots if the Knicks are willing to put two on the ball.
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John Schuhmann has covered the NBA for more than 20 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Bluesky.
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