Detroit’s interior play has been better in this series when Isaiah Stewart plays more minutes.
Orlando finds itself with a rare opportunity heading into Game 5 of its series against Detroit on Wednesday (7 p.m. ET, Prime Video).
Twice previously in NBA playoff history (since the first round went to best-of-seven in 2003), a lower-seeded opponent led 3-1 against a team that won 60 games or more in the regular season. Both of them – the Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks in 2007 and the Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs in 2011 – won those series in six games.
None of that has anything to do with the Magic beyond coincidence, of course. Their 3-1 lead over Detroit has been built on scrappier defense, some timely scoring in what has largely been a rock fight, and the Pistons’ struggles at times to get out of their own way.
Back at home for Game 5, the Pistons are determined not to have their postseason end so abruptly, not after all the work and success they put into the prior seven months. Meanwhile, the Magic will try not to replicate what the Warriors and Grizzlies achieved, because they’d rather not let Detroit even force a Game 6.
Here are three things to watch for as the Pistons fight for playoff survival:
1. More Stewart, less Duren
If this were baseball and Jalen Duren was on the mound for the Pistons, manager J.B. Bickerstaff would have given him the hook several innings ago. Duren, an All-Star and one of the NBA’s most improved players this season, has regressed in this series, offering Detroit far less offensively and defensively than he did during the first 82 games.
Getting him out of harm’s way would help in two ways: first, sparing Duren further trauma before he and his coaches can try to get him back on track, either before their next series or (gulp) during a longer-than-expected summer. And second, minimizing the damage being done while he’s out there.
Bickerstaff, at that point, to continue the analogy, would ball up his fists and raise them to his chin, his signal to the bullpen to send in burly big man Isaiah Stewart. Stewart has been a force inside for Detroit, a factor in Orlando’s dismal shooting (38.7%) in the series.
The Magic missed 62 of 92 shots in Game 4 in part because “Beef Stew” was feasting on a bunch of them – his career-high eight blocks were the most by a defender logging less than 20 minutes since 2004. In one sequence late in the winnable game, he blocked Jalen Suggs and Wendell Carter Jr. in rapid succession and his defensive rating through four games is 87.7.
If the Pistons can’t get the 19.5 ppg Duren brought from October into April, they need to keep the scores down and protect the paint. Stewart’s brawn and intensity bring a little intimidation, too, at a time when Duren – chiseled as he is – is playing small.
Starting Stewart would be an adjustment worth exploring.
2. A more careful Cade
Here’s the good news: Detroit point guard Cade Cunningham, though he hasn’t backed up the reputation yet, is arguably the best player involved in this series. He and Duren, for instance, are the only two likely to end up on All-NBA teams when those honors are announced in the coming days.
And Cunningham has joined some elite company … for a regrettable reason. He has claimed a dubious NBA playoffs record with 24 turnovers in the past three games, the most over three games since the league began tracking turnovers in 1977-78. What’s quirky about it is that most of the players Cunningham surpassed are downright legends: James Harden (who held the mark with 23), Larry Bird, Nikola Jokić, Trae Young, Dwyane Wade, Joel Embiid, LeBron James, Steve Nash and Paul Pierce.
The lesson: You’ve got to be awfully good for your team to want the basketball in your hands even when you’re treating it like it’s a tarantula.
That said, the lost possessions have been a problem. Detroit has 72 turnovers to Orlando’s 53, a game’s worth. Points scored off turnovers have favored the Magic 83-66, with the teams separated by just 10 points overall in the four games.
Cunningham’s status as Detroit’s only real offense creator has enabled Orlando to crowd him and use extra bodies to close lanes to the basket. But he also has been culpable, gifting the Magic via hurried passes or reckless decisions. Short of a tether, Cunningham is going to have to treat the ball much more carefully.
3. History looms for Orlando
There’s a skeleton lurking in Orlando’s postseason closet just waiting to leap out to haunt the team and its fans. Back in 2003, the eighth-seeded Magic were facing the top-seeded Pistons in the first round and grabbed a surprising 3-1 series lead behind Tracy McGrady.
(McGrady says his long-quoted phrase after Game 4 of “for me, a guy who has never experienced playing in the second round, this is great,” is a myth.)
The motivated Pistons fired back with three straight victories, snuffing out Orlando’s potential upset.
Some folks have peeked into the closet already, based on the similarity of the 3-1 series pace. But if the Pistons start to close the gap Wednesday night, Ol’ Bones will be out and rattling loudly while this Magic squad tries to sleep. That’s why coach Jamahl Mosley and most of the players have been meticulous in talking only about “the next game” and the difficulty of winning four times against a team from which they’ve already won three.
No one wants to step in it, and the surest way to avoid that is to end this series now.
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Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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