There’s a chicken-or-egg question in play here. Did prediction markets follow polling sentiment or did they — to use the term their name implies — predict where polling sentiment may lead?
I’ve been thinking about prediction markets less as an indicator of polling sentiment itself and more as an indicator of confidence in a given outcome. That doesn’t really answer the above question, but I’ve found it a useful frame for my own reporting purposes. And to be clear, I’ve been following prediction markets for quite a while. I wouldn’t say they’ve replaced polling data or other tools as part of my personal workflow.
So how’d they do this election?
Breaking it down
Prediction markets and polls generally matched across most of the key races that CoinDesk tracked and also generally matched the eventual outcome, with a few exceptions.
In Wisconsin’s First House District, Rep. Bryan Steil lost to Democrat Mitchell Berman. Both polls and prediction markets had that race in a dead heat the Friday before.
In Alabama’s Second House District, Rep. Shomari Figures defeated challenger Rhett Marques. Both polls and prediction markets showed Marques as leading against Figures in the redrawn district.
In the Iowa Senate race, State Rep. Josh Turek defeated Rep. Ashley Hinson, flipping the seat; prediction markets had given Hinson the edge, while polls, when averaged, had a 50/50 response.
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