As of now, it is for bitcoin. The red lines of the long-term bundle are squeezing together and beginning to slope lower. It shows investors are settling on a price and no longer buying aggressively.
With traders and investors now leaning the same way, the bearish signal is stronger.
A similar setup in late May was followed by a sharp crash to below $60,000 in the first week of June. The crossover in late January also paved the way for a drop from roughly $90,000 to around $62,000.
As always, the indicator is not fully reliable on its own, and it has had its share of losses. For instance, the bearish signals in August and September 2025 failed. The bearish confirmation came, but prices quickly turned higher.
That said, the latest bearish development comes alongside sharp ETF outflows and other signs of weakening US demand, as well as demand for downside protection in options. This suggests traders are rushing for the exit or preparing for deeper price losses.
Seasonality, however, is positive, and past data shows bitcoin tends to rally after the midterms.
All in all, the next few days should show which side wins.
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