The 12-team College Football Playoff began on Friday, with Alabama traveling to Oklahoma and beating the Sooners 34-24 as a small underdog.
Despite losing 13-10 to Indiana in the Big Ten championship game, Ohio State is still the +225 favorite to win the CFP at sportsbooks, followed by Indiana (+275) and Georgia (+500). All three teams have a first-round bye in the CFP, along with Texas Tech (+900).
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Our college football handicapping trio of Corbie Craig, Ed Feng, Matt Russell provide a best bet on Saturday’s three CFP games below.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Saturday, Dec. 20
Feng: Notre Dame fans will be watching in droves to see which one of these two teams that beat them this season will advance in the CFP.
Texas A&M had an undefeated season until a home loss to Texas in the regular season finale. That surprising loss kept the Aggies out of the SEC championship game.
Texas A&M is solid on both sides of the ball, ranking eighth on offense and fifth on defense in my adjusted success rate. If there is any weakness, the Aggies do allow explosive run plays on defense (69th in my adjusted yards per carry metric). This might have been a disaster against Notre Dame and Jeremiah Love, but they get Miami instead.
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Miami stumbled in the middle of the season with ACC losses to Louisville and SMU. However, the losses came by a total of nine points, and then the Hurricanes dominated in their last four games.
Just like Texas A&M, Miami excels on both sides of the football, ranking seventh on offense and 10th on defense in my adjusted success rate. RB Mark Fletcher missed a few games this season before returning for the last two games but with limited carries. Fletcher is an excellent back who might be able to generate explosive plays against the Aggies.
All of my metrics rate these two teams about the same. A market that favors Texas A&M by the home field parameter I use is fair. However, my model predicts 55.7 points, and the only potential significant injury is Miami CB Keionte Scott.
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Bet: Over 51.5
Craig: Ole Miss entered the postseason expecting stability, only to watch head coach Lane Kiffin exit before the finish line. Defensive coordinator Pete Golding now takes over the headset, bringing real credibility but a real challenge. We’ve already seen two midseason DC promotions this year — Auburn with D.J. Durkin and Colorado State with Tyson Summers — and both units slipped. Golding’s situation is more controlled, but it still forces him to split focus during the most scheme-heavy stretch of the year.
Offensively, the Rebels lose one of the best play-callers in the sport, but they kept enough staff and skill talent to stay explosive. And if there’s ever a moment to make a statement, this is it. Don’t be surprised if Golding pushes the throttle — a big postseason performance would send a loud message that Ole Miss isn’t dependent on Kiffin to compete at the highest level.
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Bet: Tulane-Ole Miss over 56.5 (-110)
Feng: It’s a shame that the committee sent James Madison to Oregon.
Head coach Bob Chesney took over from Curt Cignetti and has compiled a 21-5 record in two seasons at JMU. This team has an elite defense that ranks 10th in my yards-per-play numbers even after adjustments for their Sun Belt conference schedule. Freshman Sahir West has starred with seven sacks this season.
The James Madison offense has been explosive in the run game, as it ranks eighth in my adjusted yards per carry. RB Wayne Knight has rushed for 6.7 yards per carry, and QB Alonza Barnett III also contributes to the ground game.
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However, Oregon is an elite team with a real chance to win the national championship (13.1% by my numbers). They were so loaded at running back that high-profile transfer Makhi Hughes decided to redshirt after four games because he was behind holdover Noah Whittingham and also two freshmen.
In addition, Oregon has an excellent defense, which ranks third in my adjusted yards per play. Coach Dan Lanning comes from a defensive background, and he will have a plan and the talent to eliminate the Dukes’ explosive runs.
The CFP would hit the next level with an upset from an 11 or 12 seed. James Madison at Ole Miss would have been an excellent matchup for the underdog, as my numbers would have made Ole Miss about a six-point favorite. It is doubly frustrating because all of my metrics have 12-seed James Madison way ahead of No. 11 Tulane, the team that actually plays at Ole Miss.
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Instead, James Madison faces one of the favorites, and my numbers have Oregon by 16.3 points. Oregon might struggle a little bit without star freshman WR Dakorien Moore, and the Dukes’ defense should keep them in the game. However, Oregon should cruise comfortably to meet Texas Tech.
Bet: Lean James Madison +21.5
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