It will be hard for the NFL to top the drama we saw in wild-card weekend.
There were great games and exciting finishes, but the divisional round often delivers fantastic football as well. We have the top seed in each conference added to the fun, and the six teams that were good enough to survive a tense first round.
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Here is a first look at the divisional round matchups (the fourth matchup will be added after the Texans-Steelers game on Monday night):
NFC
(6) San Francisco 49ers at (1) Seattle Seahawks (Saturday, Jan. 17)
Why the 49ers can win
Head coach Kyle Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh have had phenomenal seasons. It makes no sense how the 49ers have gotten as far as they have given all the injuries to star players, but they keep winning. They won in Philadelphia on wild-card weekend after losing George Kittle to a torn Achilles tendon. It’s hard to see how the 49ers will produce that much offense without Kittle, considering they struggled mightily against Seattle’s defense in Week 18, but Shanahan gives San Francisco a chance. If Saleh’s defense can create some big turnovers from Sam Darnold, maybe they’ll pull off another surprise.
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Why the Seahawks can win
Seattle’s success in the regular season was no fluke. The Seahawks went 14-3 and the three losses were by nine combined points. A defense that led the NFL in points allowed is the foundation. Seattle’s defensive performance in Week 18, holding the 49ers to three points and just 173 yards, was magnificent. The 49ers will adjust for the rematch, but it will be hard to find a solution for a complex defense. Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald is a defensive guru and the team clicked with his scheme this season. Seattle’s offense isn’t bad, either, finishing third in points scored and eighth in yards gained. As long as quarterback Sam Darnold doesn’t make mistakes — that will be a key storyline all postseason — the Seahawks will be tough to beat.
Who has the juice going in
The George Kittle loss might be deflating for most teams, but this 49ers team is used to dealing with adversity. Still, losing a player as important as Kittle will hurt. The Seahawks’ Week 18 stonewalling of the 49ers has to give Seattle confidence, but it allows the 49ers to learn from it and make changes. Seattle has a great home-field advantage with a loud crowd, and that will factor in. The 49ers will be ready, but it will be a daunting task to win at Seattle.
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(5) Los Angeles Rams at (2) Chicago Bears (Sunday, Jan. 18)
Why the Rams can win
Is it possible Matthew Stafford will win MVP and isn’t unquestionably the best player on his team? Puka Nacua has been on a great run whenever he has been healthy this season, and that continued in the wild-card round with 111 yards against the Panthers. The combination of Stafford and Nacua is probably the best still remaining in the playoffs. And the Rams have plenty more around them, whether it’s Davante Adams, Kyren Williams leading the run game, productive tight ends or a defense that gets a lot of disruption from the front seven. They’re also very well coached by Sean McVay. The Rams are the rare wild-card team that is clearly a viable Super Bowl contender.
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Why the Bears can win
The Bears are one of those teams that finds different, and usually dramatic, ways to win. They certainly know how to win close games. They had eight wins in one-score games, including a wild comeback to beat the Packers in the wild-card round. Caleb Williams continues to make incredible highlight throws and often does it in critical situations. The offense as a whole has continued to improve under Ben Johnson’s watch, and continued improvements from a pair of rookies, tight end Colston Loveland and receiver Luther Burden III, have been big factors. Chicago can get big plays against the Rams’ secondary, which is their most obvious weakness. The Bears don’t blow many teams out, but 12 times this season they’ve come up with a win.
Caleb Williams celebrates after the Bears knocked off the Packers in a wild-card playoff game. (Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)
(Todd Rosenberg via Getty Images)
Who has the juice going in
The Rams might be the better team, but the Bears have to feel like they are a team of destiny after that Packers victory. They trailed by 18 at halftime and somehow came back to beat their biggest rival. The Rams came back, too, but barely beating a Carolina team that went 8-9 in the regular season wasn’t impressive. The Rams had a bit of a slump late in the season and nearly losing to the Panthers shouldn’t convince anyone they’ve snapped out of it.
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AFC
(6) Buffalo Bills at (1) Denver Broncos (Saturday, Jan. 17)
Why the Bills can win
Pretty simple: They have Josh Allen. Allen covers up a lot of the Bills’ issues, and we saw that happen again in a dramatic comeback win over the Jaguars in the wild-card round. Allen put together a game-winning drive after the Jaguars took a lead with a little more than four minutes remaining. His flat-footed throw downfield to Brandin Cooks for a 36-yard gain, with the Jaguars’ rush about to sack him, was a key play on Buffalo’s winning drive and not one that many quarterbacks can make. If you believe in the idea that having the best quarterback is a major edge in any playoff game, you have to like Buffalo’s chances.
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Why the Broncos can win
The Broncos aren’t the first team to be a playoff threat with an uneven offense and a fierce defense. The defense, and the pass rush in particular, carried the Broncos. Denver had a league-best 68 sacks, 11 more than any other team. The offense has its moments too, but it often waits until late in games to start making plays. Bo Nix has been fine after a strong rookie season, but he has been inconsistent. The Broncos have a fantastic coach in Sean Payton and that helps in the many close games they find themselves in. And those reps in close games will help in the postseason.
Who has the juice going in
You’d think a 14-3 team coming in off the bye would be feeling great, but it’s hard to be comfortable given how the offense has disappeared for long stretches. That includes a poor performance in Week 18 when the offense didn’t score a touchdown in a 19-3 win over a Chargers team that was resting starters. The Bills got a reminder of what they are in wild-card weekend: a flawed team that has a superstar quarterback that can dig it out of plenty of jams. Josh Allen is a special player, and that gives the Bills all the juice they need most weeks.
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(5) Houston Texans at (2) New England Patriots (Sunday, Jan. 17)
Why the Texans can win
Well, it’s not their offense. The Texans defense is either the best in the NFL or on a very short list. In the wild-card round the defense scored two touchdowns against the Steelers while giving up none. Houston’s pass rush is intense and they are strong in coverage and against the run too. There’s no real weakness. If you beat the Texans, who have now won an NFL-best 10 games in a row, it will be because you’ve shut down their middling offense and squeezed out a few points on their defense. And Houston’s offense got a nice boost against the Steelers when rookie running back Woody Marks had 112 yards. The Texans don’t produce much on offense but thanks to the defense, they don’t need many points to win.
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Why the Patriots can win
Drake Maye has looked like one of two realistic choices for NFL MVP all season. This week is a big chance to make yet another statement in his breakout season, against a Texans defense that gave up the fewest yards in the NFL this season. Great quarterbacks can make a massive difference in the playoffs, and Maye has been one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks all season. It will be a fascinating matchup between Maye and the Texans’ defense. The Patriots defense was great against the Chargers in the wild-card round and has an easier matchup against a Texans offense that hasn’t been very good all season and might be without receiver Nico Collins, who left Monday night’s game after he was evaluated for a concussion.
Who has the juice going in
It’s hard to say it’s not the team that has won 10 games in a row. The Texans defense has been fantastic all season. Their pass rush sets the tone, but they play well at all levels. They present a matchup nightmare. But it’s not like the Patriots are limping in. They’ve won 14 of 15 games including last week’s decisive win over the Chargers. Both teams will feel confident. The Texans feel great about their defense against anyone and the Patriots have full trust in Maye. Let’s call this a push for what should be a fantastic matchup.
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