The first time the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks met in the regular season, Seattle had a 61-yard field-goal attempt for the win on the final play. The kick went wide right, and the Rams held on for the win.
The second meeting might have been the NFL’s game of the season. The Seahawks had a historic comeback in the fourth quarter and beat the Rams in overtime on a 2-point conversion.
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If the third meeting is anywhere near as dramatic as the first two, we’re in for a great NFC championship game.
The Rams have already had two thrilling playoff wins. They won a wild-card game against the Panthers on a touchdown in the final minute, then beat the Bears last week in overtime. The Seahawks didn’t have that much excitement, as they blew out the 49ers 41-6 in the divisional round.
The Seahawks and Rams looked like the two best teams in the NFL for much of the season. The winner of the rubber match this season will go to Super Bowl LX.
Previous meetings this season
The first meeting, a 21-19 win by the Rams, featured four interceptions by Sam Darnold. Seattle still almost won that game. The Rams outplayed the Seahawks for most of the rematch, but a Rashid Shaheed punt return in the fourth quarter started a comeback. Seattle went from trailing 30-14 with a little more than eight minutes remaining to sending the game to overtime, then winning it on a touchdown and 2-point conversion after the Rams scored first in the extra period. They were fittingly close games between two fantastic teams.
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Health update
The Seahawks suffered a big injury in the divisional round when running back Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL. He and Kenneth Walker III split carries almost evenly in the regular season, and Charbonnet led the Seahawks with 12 rushing touchdowns. Also, quarterback Sam Darnold is still playing through an oblique injury that was a big story last week. The Rams have had two high-stress games to start the playoffs, but their injury report is relatively clean going into the NFC championship game.
The head coaches
Sean McVay is the more proven commodity in the NFC championship game, but Mike Macdonald showed in his second season as a head coach that he’s a rising star too. McVay, who turns 40 years old Saturday, has already put together the type of résumé that most coaches dream of. He has won 61.7% of his games in the regular season and has 10 playoff wins, including a Super Bowl win and another NFC championship. Macdonald, who is a year younger than McVay, is considered a defensive genius and that shined through this season as Seattle had the No. 1 defense in the NFL via DVOA. It looks like we’re in for a long rivalry between these two coaching stars.
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Key player for the Rams
The Seahawks gave up more than 265 passing yards twice in a game this season. One was against the Rams, when Matthew Stafford had 457 yards in Week 16. That was an outlier performance by Seattle’s defense but not for Stafford, who is likely to win NFL MVP in a couple weeks. In the first meeting, however, Stafford struggled with just 130 yards, which was 51 fewer yards than his second-lowest output of the season. Stafford is the key player in every game for the Rams, but given how well Seattle’s defense is playing, whether he is closer to throwing for 130 yards or 457 yards in this third meeting will probably determine whether the Rams move on to Super Bowl LX.
[Get more Rams news: Los Angeles team feed]
Key player for the Seahawks
Kenneth Walker III is coming off a huge divisional round performance, and he’ll need to be the workhorse this weekend with Zach Charbonnet done for the season. No Seahawks running back other than Walker and Charbonnet had more than 22 carries all season. George Holani could return from a hamstring injury to back up Walker, but he hasn’t played since Nov. 23. The Seahawks are thin behind Walker, who carved up the 49ers last weekend with 116 yards and three touchdowns on 19 carries. He will likely get more than 20 carries vs. the Rams, something that has not happened yet this season.
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[Get more Seahawks news: Seattle team feed]
Betting market watch
After a dominating performance against the 49ers, the Seahawks opened as 2.5-point home favorites against the Rams and that’s pretty much where the line has stayed. Any Rams +3s have been quickly bet early in the week, but the public is on the Seahawks. The Rams have been oddsmakers’ top power-rated team the second half of the season, but have escaped with two wins (and non-covers) in the postseason. Will Sam Darnold do enough to get Seattle to (gulp) a Super Bowl? He may not need to do much with how well the Seahawks’ defense is playing. — Ben Fawkes
Check out more of Ben’s work at the Yahoo Sports betting hub.
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Prediction
This game could turn on how Sam Darnold plays. Dating back to last season’s wild-card game against the Rams, when Darnold was starting for the Vikings, he had struggled badly against Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula. In 11.5 quarters from that game through the midpoint of the fourth quarter of Week 16, Darnold had thrown one touchdown with seven interceptions and was sacked 11 times against the Rams. Darnold was on his way to a third straight loss against the Rams before coming alive in Seattle’s epic comeback win. The Seahawks are more than Darnold, but they also need Darnold to play like he did late in that game, not like he did for the nearly three full games against Shula’s defense before that.
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Seattle has been a fantastic team all season, going 15-3 including the playoffs with their three losses by a combined nine points. The Seahawks will make adjustments on defense to make sure Matthew Stafford doesn’t go off again. We’ve seen these teams play two incredibly close games, and this one seems like a 50-50 proposition too. Seattle has had extra rest lately and a great home-field advantage, and that gives the Seahawks a very slight edge in what should be a great third meeting.
Seahawks 24, Rams 23
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