Why hasn’t Giannis Antetokounmpo been traded already?

We are beyond the NBA season’s midway point, and the Milwaukee Bucks are 18-27, 12th place in the Eastern Conference, a few games from the final play-in tournament berth.

They have featured Giannis Antetokounmpo for 30 of those games, and the two-time league MVP has been incredible in them, averaging a 28-10-6 on 65/40/66 shooting splits. When he is on the court, they practically profile as a contender, outscoring opponents by 5.4 points per 100 possessions, excluding garbage time, according to Cleaning the Glass.

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How are the Bucks so bad? It’s a long story, actually, one that has stripped them of all other star talent and most of their tradable draft assets. Not gonna lie: It’s a sad story, and one that has had us wondering why in the world Antetokounmpo has not been traded … yet.

For starters, the Bucks are being outscored by 11.2 points per 100 possessions when Antetokounmpo is on the bench, looking more like the league’s worst team. They are 3-11 when Giannis has missed games entirely to a right calf injury and a left adductor strain.

Plus, “We’re not playing hard, not doing the right things,” Antetokounmpo said after last week’s loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. “We’re not playing to win.”

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On Friday, Antetokounmpo suffered another injury to his right calf, which he thinks will keep him sidelined until the “end of February, beginning of March.” Things will get worse in Milwaukee, where Myles Turner and Kyle Kuzma have taken the places of Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton. Damian Lillard was even there in between. I told you it was a sad story.

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And on Wednesday, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that the Bucks — previously resistant to a trade — “are starting to listen” to “aggressive offers” from “several teams” for Antetokounmpo, who is “ready for a new home,” and has been for the past nine months.

Meanwhile, the NBA’s trade deadline will pass on Feb. 5 and, despite reports of recent hope from other teams to the contrary, the likelier outcome may still be Antetokounmpo remaining a Buck throughout the remainder of the season, however gruesome it may get.

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As for beyond this season, well, do not expect Antetokounmpo to stay a Buck any longer.

“No way they run it back,” one league source said.

So, why not trade Antetokounmpo now? One theory floating around NBA circles: “You trade Luka, you’ll never work again.” In other words, look at what has become of Nico Harrison since he dealt Luka Dončić from the Dallas Mavericks to the Los Angeles Lakers.

Absent a trade request — and it is unclear from any reporting whether he indeed made such a demand — does Bucks general manager Jon Horst want to be The Guy Who Dealt Giannis Antetokounmpo, no matter the return? I wouldn’t want to be That Guy, either.

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Not until the last minute, anyway, and this summer essentially yields the last minute, as Antetokounmpo will be entering the final year of his contract in the 2026-27 campaign. He will have far more influence over his next destination the closer the end of his deal comes.

As Charania previously said, “I’ve spoken to about a dozen sources on and off for weeks. The tension that is in the air within that organization and within the front office and in that locker room is at an all-time high. There’s a splintering environment going on there.”

After all, it has been years since Antetokounmpo told The New York Times’ Tania Ganguli, “Winning a championship comes first. I don’t want to be 20 years on the same team and don’t win another championship.” The Bucks have failed to emerge from the first round of the playoffs in each season since, and it appears they could miss the postseason entirely.

It would only make sense that Antetokounmpo wants out. Only, “There will never be a chance, and there will never be a moment that I will come out and say, ‘I want a trade,’” Antetokounmpo recently told The Athletic’s Sam Amick. “That’s not … in … my … nature.”

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Of course, even that he couched with the phrase, “As of today.”

They seemed to have reached a stalemate. Neither Antetokounmpo nor Horst want to alienate the fans in Milwaukee. But we have reached the boiling point. This team is not going to win another championship for the foreseeable future, and therefore the team is not providing Antetokounmpo with what he wants, which is the chance to contend again.

Then came Wednesday’s news: The Bucks are reportedly opening their eyes to a deal.

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None of this helps us solve the mystery of why Antetokounmpo has not already been traded. In fact, it only leads us back to that question. There is, of course, more reason to wait until the offseason for a deal, most of it having to do with the salary cap. The first and second spending aprons make it awfully difficult for rival teams to make maneuvers midseason.

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“Better in the summer,” said one source familiar with Milwaukee’s thinking. “More flexibility.”

Again: Look at what Harrison got for Dončić midway through the season. He obviously did not canvas the league for offers, or else he would have gotten something better than Anthony Davis, Max Christie and a first-round draft pick. Wait until the summer, though, and the whole league would have moved heaven and earth for the opportunity to trade for Dončić.

The same may be true of Antetokounmpo, even at 31 years old. Even another calf injury “does not appear to be dissuading interested parties,” reported Substack’s Marc Stein.

But it is not easy to move heaven and earth midway through the season and still field a championship team around Antetokounmpo. He is, really, a non-shooter who uses more than a third of his team’s possessions. He needs a certain roster around him — mostly shooters everywhere, including the center position — to maximize his relentless attack.

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And he needs to be healthy.

There is an argument to be made that pulling off the Band-Aid now is what is best for the Bucks. Look at how quickly the Houston Rockets have bounced back since trading James Harden for a picks-heavy package in January 2021. Get the rebuild going as fast as you can.

Then again, Milwaukee will have a better idea of exactly what other teams can offer in the 2026 draft when this season is complete. The Atlanta Hawks, for example, own the better pick between the Bucks and the New Orleans Pelicans, and if that lands in the top four at season’s end, it may be the most valuable asset any team can trade for Antetokounmpo.

Whether that means Antetokounmpo will be dealt this season may have more to do with whether Horst wants the responsibility of being the one to trade him. What ever happened to fortune favoring the bold, then? The second apron. That’s what, I guess.