Every offseason, I rewatch The Lord of the Rings trilogy. They’re easy to throw on while I’m working, the score is phenomenal but I get sucked into the action every time. Anyway, the sequence that still gets me is Sam and Frodo’s climb up the side of Mount Doom. Shear exhaustion and the urgency to finish their quest limited any planning time. They assessed the situation, reacted accordingly and chaos ensued.
The next seven days of fantasy football will be no different.
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We’ve been on this journey for four months. Remember what your team looked like at the onset of the season? Bet there’ve been some changes since. Or, a couple of ill-timed injuries may have forced you to make some unplanned decisions, too. It happens. But this is the final push. Our last shot at reviewing the landscape to make the best lineup. And after Week 16, there are a few situations worth monitoring to determine our level of trust before we let players decide who’ll take down our fantasy football leagues.
Are We Still Riding the Broncos?
One of the tougher aspects of football analysis is pulling the good aspects of a player’s results from a loss. That’s especially difficult when an ill-timed turnover becomes part of the post-game narrative.
It’d be fair to look at Bo Nix’s Week 16 outing as a letdown relative to what we saw on film from him against the Packers. Well, if you’re only looking at his boxscore. To start, he didn’t complete four touchdown passes. And on top of the interception, there was an odd exchange between him and Jaleel McLaughlin, allowing Jacksonville to pad its lead by three points. But I’ll (try to) address some of Nix’s “no good very bad day” with some context.
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First, let’s look at the pick. Nix sailed the throw. Bad throw with worse timing. Assuming Pat Bryant was running a hitch route, he had the right depth and left enough of a window to move the chains. I’m sure he’d want a mulligan on that one. But with the team already down two scores, I understand the margins were razor-thin. Plus, Jacksonville was after him to close out the game. Of Nix’s seven pressures in obvious passing situations, five of them came in the fourth quarter. And 80% of those came in under Nix’s average time to throw. Of course, handling a pocket is something we’d expect of any passer, but the other aspect of the game that stuck out was how much head coach Sean Payton put on Nix’s plate.
Denver had a +7.0% pass rate over expectation, which ties for the second-highest mark of the season. Even when the Broncos eventually lost to the Colts back in Week 2, Nix only threw the ball 30 times. He had 47 attempts in Week 16! And he was throwing more from inside the 10-yard line. At the top of the fourth quarter, there was a three-play sequence where Nix attempted three passes, completed one, forcing a field goal. Even with RJ Harvey averaging 5.9 adjusted yards after contact, the pass game was the priority. However, even in doing so, there are some positive nuggets worth taking away.
Nix’s sudden ability to diagnose and attack zone coverages was still on display against the Jaguars (until the interception). Per PFF, of his 47 attempts, just three came against man/press concepts. One of which resulted in his TD to Courtland Sutton. In other words, with the game still in control, Nix was the same QB. And the stats back up that idea.
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Air Yards per Target (against zone, in neutral game script): 9.5 (Week 15), 9.5 (Week 16)
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Passing Success Rate: 54.5%, 50.0%
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Completion Percentage: 66.7%, 63.6%
He was just as aggressive a passer while dealing with the third-highest pressure rate all season. Not to mention, both he and the rest of the team were in a situation they hadn’t found themselves in often. Entering Week 16, the Broncos had only run 20 plays in the fourth quarter, trailing by 14 or more points. The league average is 58.6. And given their Week 17 opponent, they shouldn’t be in the same spot.
Trust Meter: Accordingly, the Broncos’ passing game has my full trust for your fantasy championship. The pass volume and efficiency have continued to be there for Nix. And Sutton, at 9.3 targets per game, is a strong WR2 option. The Chiefs’ pass rush put Cam Ward under duress on just 22.6% of his dropbacks (second-lowest of the season), resulting in one of his best statistical outings. With a quick turnaround for both teams, we should expect a similar result for Nix when we need it the most.
Justin Herbert Leads the Charge … rs
I’m in my, and I can’t stress this enough, early (!) 40s, but I think I can still decipher some of the slang out there. No, I don’t understand 6-7, but the phrase “locked-in” was easy to pick up through context clues. But then I saw the embodiment of the expression on Sunday afternoon.
Justin Herbert’s first rep in the above clip is flo-etry. He’s galloping within the pocket as it collapses without almost any wasted movements just to uncork a 50-yard bomb to Quentin Johnston with Malik Hooker in coverage. Coincidentally, his protection unit crumbling around him has been emblematic of the season. The Chargers have had 168 weeks of action lost across the 18 players (12th-most in the league). Against the Cowboys alone, Los Angeles ruled out four starters during the game, one of whom was starting LT Jamaree Salyer, who began the season as the team’s second-string RG.
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But that didn’t matter to Herbert. None of it has.
A broken (non-throwing) hand. A backup RB. Another lineman. All have been inconsequential as Herbert has done his best John Wick impression to drag his team to the playoffs despite all of their injuries.
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Passing Success Rate: 30.3% (Week 14), 51.5% (Week 15), 72.4% (Week 16)
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EPA per Dropback: -0.26, -0.07, 0.69
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Sack Rate: 21.2%, 12.1%, 0.0%
Two things here. First, I left out the part about Herbert’s rushing. The man has a busted wing, but his yardage total as a runner (108) is more than half of his starting RBs (202). Second, even though I interpret the game through numbers, they don’t do his performances justice.
There have been 32 games where a starting QB’s pressure and blitz rates were over 40%. Herbert has two of them. His marks for passing success rate and EPA per dropback top the list. He’s one of five with a completion percentage over 70% in that type of environment. And Herbert is the only passer of that group to reach 300 passing yards. Again, the numbers truly don’t encapsulate what he’s putting on film because, after rewatching parts of his game, I almost forgot who he’s facing on Saturday in Week 17.
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Pressure Rate (last six games): 40.6%, 4th-highest
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Passing Yards per Game Allowed: 183.7, 8th-fewest
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Sack Rate: 9.8%, 7th-highest
The Texans are one of four teams with a pass rush and coverage unit in the top 10. But they’ve slipped up the last couple of weeks. It was one thing when Jacoby Brissett pelted Houston with 40 pass attempts for three scores. But then Geno Smith (whom I always believed in!) put together two scoring drives. I’m throwing up my hands on this one, ladies and gentlemen.
Trust Meter: Things could go either way for Herbert and company in Week 17. On the one hand, I can see him continuing to use read-option sneaks and the long-range accuracy of a sniper to keep the Chargers moving up and down the field. But the bill comes due. Always. At some point, the loss of L.A.’s personnel will become a problem for the Bolts. But maybe they can push that off for at least another week.
The Bucs are Broken
I don’t understand.
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As an analyst (part-time, but still), I’m trying to get more comfortable with that phrase. I mean, we’re trying to project a game played by people. Chaos rules the gridiron. So some of what we see is supposed to be hard to comprehend. But I truly don’t get what happened to the Buccaneers offense.
Watch Mike Evans’ reaction after Lathan Ransom secures the interception. Even he was bewildered. But that’s just one play. If we’re going to give Nix grace for causing a back-breaking turnover during a comeback attempt, Mayfield deserves the same treatment (the gap in experience between the two notwithstanding). However, combined with all of Mayfield’s other plays that got Tampa Bay to this point, we should harbor a fair amount of concern.
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Passing Success Rate (Weeks 15-16): 46.3%, 16th (out of 26 eligible QBs – min. 40 dropbacks)
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Completion Percentage: 61.7%, 19th
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EPA per Dropback: 0.13, 16th
Mayfield’s peripherals from the last two weeks have been with his offensive line (mostly) intact, and his pass-catching corps (again, mostly) healthy. And the output has still been league-average at best. In fact, over the same timeframe, the other three QBs in his division have been better at their jobs with arguably lesser talent at their disposal. Even worse, there isn’t a significant gap in his numbers between now and when everyone was hurt.
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His completion percentage over the first three and a half months of the season? Almost identical (61.6%). Yardage totals on a per-week basis were nearly the same, too (209.4 vs 211). But again, that was when Evans was out, and Chris Godwin Jr.’s return was a myth. They’re back on the field together again, but even their presence adds to the confusion.
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Mike Evans: 74% (Route Rate), 36% (Target Share)
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Chris Godwin Jr.: 91%, 19%
I did not have the Bucs’ first-round WR fighting with Jalen McMillan for routes in two pivotal matchups. But Egbuka’s up-and-down rookie season has been the topic of discussion all season. His rapport with Mayfield and on-field deployment (sometimes as the X-iso receiver) has slowed his development. And now, with Bucky Irving getting “Sean Tucker’d,” there’s no one outside of Evans for fantasy managers to trust.
Trust Meter: So, if you’re relying on a Tampa Bay skill player to complete your championship run, you’re cooked. As I mentioned on the recap show Sunday night, I’m expecting a report in the spring about the severity of the ailments plaguing the team. Outside of the explosives, the same rhythm from 2024 or consistency in the touch distribution is there this season. And even against the Dolphins, identifying the right player to start may be a tough task on its own.
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The Wild Wide Receivers of Week 16
We see big performances from WRs each week. But a few from the semifinals warranted a closer look. Well, actually, I just wanted to rewatch some highlights.
If you catch the second angle of DJ Moore’s walk-off TD, you can see Caleb Williams stick his mitts in the hand warmer right after he lets it fly. What a finish. However, it’s taken either an extra quarter or late-game heroics for the veteran receiver to show out from a fantasy standpoint.
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Targets: 5 (Week 15), 7 (Week 16)
Sure, having Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III sidelined with injuries would give fantasy managers the confidence to start Moore. But their absence didn’t shrink Williams’ target tree. Seven pass-catchers recorded a target in Weeks 15 and 16. And Moore barely had the lead through regulation against the Packers. But with the Bears’ run game continuing to keep the offense in manageable passing situations (6.3 yards to the sticks, 6th-fewest), Williams’ efficiency when passing to Moore will be all that matters.
Now, let’s reframe how we think about George Pickens’ usage.
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I think we can all agree that passes closer to the LOS are easier to catch than deeper passes. It’s also not a stretch to believe in slot receivers seeing (relatively) simpler coverage. Or, at the very least, QBs delivering higher-quality passes to WRs in those situations. With that said, let’s check in on how No. 3 got back into the good graces of his fantasy managers.
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Air Yards per Target: 13.2
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Slot Snap Rate, Targets: 6.0%, 0
That’s the life of an X-receiver. Through his slump over the last month, Pickens’ receiving aDOT has been over 10 air yards in half of them. He’s run just 5% of his routes from the slot. Having an aggressive passer like Dak Prescott (fourth in tight-window-throw rate) helps, but the inherent volatility will give you peaks and valleys in results.
Honestly, it’s just good to see Chris Olave healthy, while still maintaining the high-end efficiency we’ve seen from him throughout his career. But this year has been different. HC Kellen Moore has moved Olave into the slot more (career-high 42.0% snap rate from the inside), and we’ve seen Olave on more concepts across the middle of the field. But, more importantly, the Saints have found their QB for the next few years.
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Target Rate (since Shough took over): 28%, 12th among all WRs
Without Devaughn Vele (5.8 targets per game since Week 12) and Devin Neal (2.1), Olave’s workload soared to Tyler Shough looking his way 16 times on Sunday. Meanwhile, Shough has continued to impress after being the first Saints’ QB to throw for 300 yards since Week 16 of 2023. With a game against the pass-funnel Titans’ defense on tap, both should be hot options for Sunday afternoon.
Trust Meter: All three deserve some of our trust for our championship games. The workloads for Pickens and Moore can fluctuate, but their offensive environments (at WAS, at SF) are worth attacking. And with Olave, he has the floor and ceiling with Shough to be a fringe top-12 option for Week 17.
