What a way to kick off the fantasy football semifinals. The Seahawks and Rams gave us arguably the best Thursday Night Football game of the season. And, invariably, some of you may be scrambling or rejoicing about your matchup based on the result. If you find yourself in the former category, I’ve got notes on a couple of players from each game over the weekend and Monday that we should all be on the lookout for during Week 16.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
If you had told me Jalen Hurts had completed 75% of his passes, didn’t cause any turnovers and scored three times, my next question would’ve been about his receivers. Because surely, for Hurts to have such a positive performance, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith would benefit from it. But when your QB averages just 6.9 air yards per target on 15 attempts, production may be hard to come by. But let’s assume a clean game gave Hurts the confidence he needs to throw more downfield this week, as the Commanders’ defense has been a boon for opposing pass-catchers over the last month.
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Jacory Croskey-Merritt did all he could to remind OC Kliff Kingsbury why he was a larger part of the rotation earlier in the season. With Chris Rodriguez Jr. inactive, the seventh-round rookie handled 62% of the rushing attempts against the Giants. And he put on a show with those carries. His 33.3% forced missed tackle rate was the highest single-game mark of any Commanders’ RB this year. It was the fourth time he averaged more than four adjusted yards after contact per attempt. The Eagles will likely be without one of their best run defenders, opening things up for a strong Washington rushing attack. And if Kingsbury is as sharp as we think he is, we should be in store for another healthy dose of Croskey-Merritt on Saturday.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
I’m sure Packers’ fans breathed a sigh of relief after reports indicated Christian Watson avoided major injury. But given the on-field reaction, let’s assume Watson is out or limited. His absence forces Jordan Love and the passing game to find a new identity, which could be through attacking the short and intermediate parts of the field with Jayden Reed. The Packers’ slot receiver has been at a 65% and 67% route rate since his return, with targets and rushing attempts already back in his workload. Chicago’s secondary has limited deep shots as of late, which may make Reed the key to success for Love in Week 16.
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I’m still starting Kyle Monangai wherever I have him against the Packers. Yes, D’Andre Swift scored twice, but the Bears’ rookie RB handled all of the goal-line carries and took 100% of the short-yardage snaps. His only problem was that the Browns knew what was coming when they saw No. 25 on the field. Monangai faced eight or more defenders in the box on 72.7% of his attempts. And he still nearly matched Swift in rushing success rate (45.5% to 55.6%). Green Bay just let RJ Harvey drop 65 yards and a score on it. Monangai can plow through its Micah Parsons-less line for a few more on a shorter week.
Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns
The Bills should’ve landed on their identity as a two-TE team a while ago. Admittedly, this is an outsider’s opinion. But the draft capital spent on Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid (albeit years apart) should’ve been drivers to build around those two. Last week, they accounted for over 30% of Josh Allen’s targets and over a third of his first downs through the air. Meanwhile, Keon Coleman’s best contribution was drawing a DPI, and they’ve got Brandin Cooks taking meaningful snaps. Without a true WR1 to draw coverage (or legitimate targets), Knox and Kincaid should be the focus of Buffalo’s passing game.
I still can’t get over Harold Fannin Jr. earning 14 targets last week. Honestly, it should be a bigger deal, but it’s the Browns. There’s always some other story with them. Let me put it this way. There have been 432 instances of a TE earning at least one target in a game this year. Just 24 of those have featured a game with 10 or more pass attempts thrown their way. The number of 14-target contests? Just two. And coincidentally, they both came against the Bears. But with the level of volume and trust from his rookie QB, Fannin should be on every starting roster, even against a tough Bills defense.
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Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins
All eyes will be on Joe Burrow and his expressions and mannerisms throughout the game. Not when he’s on the field, but on the sidelines. How he’s feeling about football and life in general has been the topic gaining national media attention for the last two weeks. I got an idea to make him smile: light up the field with his best friend. Ja’Marr Chase’s 10-catch, 132-yard outing against the Ravens doesn’t tell the full story. The two were off on multiple plays, one of which could’ve kept the Bengals from being shut out. So, if there’s anything that’ll get Burrow back into having fun with the game, it’ll be getting into a rhythm with Chase.
I want to see how the offense operates with Quinn Ewers. Tua Tagovailoa’s calling card was pre-snap reads with a blazing time to throw. Cincinnati doesn’t have much of a pass rush. HC Mike McDaniel could let Ewers do some limit testing. Tagovailoa’s concussion history, rightfully, confined him to the pocket. But now, boot-action concepts and even some rushing could be on the play-calling menu. And the offensive shift wouldn’t be to keep the Bengals guessing, but more to see what things could be like in 2026 for the Dolphins offense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
As I was watching the Buccaneers implode in primetime, something caught my eye. It wasn’t Mike Evans looking like he turned back the clock. It was the backfield. Bucky Irving still led the way with a 76% share of the carries. However, I kept seeing Sean Tucker on the field when Tampa got into the red zone. I thought I was seeing things. But the Bucs’ RB3 has taken 100% of the goal-line carries over the past two weeks. If Tucker has that role and Rachaad White is siphoning away targets, Irving’s status as a top-12 option may be in jeopardy.
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Jalen Coker can’t keep doing this, right? He’s found the end zone twice and scored double-digit PPR points on either side of the Panthers’ bye. However, despite Coker generating at least one explosive play per week, his utility to the offense should put him in line for another viable outing. Out of his eight catches since Week 13, seven of them have gone for either a first down or a score. And Young continues to look for his slot man in either obvious passing situations or when he’s under duress. With the Bucs’ pass rush continuing to be a menace to enemy QBs, Coker is a potential FLEX for Week 16.
New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints
First, we categorized Adonai Mitchell as “a flash in the pan” after his trade to the Jets. He was averaging 17.8 and 26.4 air yards per target, respectively, and coming down with a few. Then, Mitchell was the Jets’ WR1 after finishing as the WR5 with Tyrod Taylor under center. Now, this will be his third game with Brady Cook. He’s had no less than six targets in each of those games. And if Mitchell can do well against the Saints’ secondary, we’ll have a new descriptor for the young WR: QB-proof.
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The Saints have found their QB (for now). Over his last four games, Tyler Shough sits at a 69.9% completion rate, getting his primary pass-catchers involved on a weekly basis. Plus, the dude can boogie in the open field! He’s averaged seven touches per game for 31.7 yards on the ground. With the Jets still opting to use man coverage, Shough’s mobility will keep the Saints offense on the move in Week 16.
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants
All right. I’m back in on J.J. McCarthy. Well, more like I have hope HC Kevin O’Connell can put together a development plan for his young QB. McCarthy has two straight weeks with his passing success rate over 50%. He’s mostly stayed in the short and intermediate part of the field (6.7 and 10.4 air yards per attempt), lowering his volatility on a down-to-down basis. Now, with the Giants’ secondary on deck, McCarthy should be able to stack another win for the Vikings.
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I have a feeling that Jaxson Dart’s play style and long-term health are going to be topics of conversation during this game. Designed runs were back for Dart against the Commanders. And, naturally, the mobility exposed him to more hits (7). But let’s assume the Giants’ interim coaches take those away. And they beg him not to scramble. DC Brian Flores will still try to get Dart on the ground. Flores’ defense blitzed the last seven QBs on 50.2% of their dropbacks and racked up 16 sacks. Without a concerted shift to the offense, we’ll be having the same discussions by the end of Week 16.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys
I know the MVP award is more about sustained success. But we need a short-term accolade to recognize players like Justin Herbert, who force their teams to win by sheer force of will. Herbert, with one and a half hands, has 11 carries and 11 sacks over the last two weeks. It hasn’t mattered that the Chargers are playing musical linemen, and Herbert has seen double-digit pressures in both games. Lack of help from his receivers? No problem. Herbert has channeled his inner John Wick and gotten the job done himself. But against the Cowboys’ secondary, we should see the downfield passing game start to click again.
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On the bright side, there weren’t any questions about George Pickens’ effort after Week 15. I didn’t see any reports of Dak Prescott getting after his WR2. Essentially, the drama from the week prior is over. But the questions about his involvement remain. Pickens’ opportunity share has been on a multi-week slide from a 33% target rate in Week 13 to 13% last Sunday. Plus, as the Chargers haven’t given up a receiving TD to WRs since Week 11, he’ll have his work cut out for him.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans
No Patrick Mahomes. No playoff hopes. The Chiefs likely have their eyes on 2026 and beyond. But Travis Kelce still has some motivation to close the year out strong. The future Hall of Famer needs just 52 receiving yards to reach 13,000 career yards and 99 to get to second all-time at the position, passing Jason Witten. Rashee Rice’s concussion may keep the receiver off the field, and the Titans have been a pass-funnel defense over their last six games. Assuming Minshew Mania keeps the Chiefs offense afloat, Kelce should be the beneficiary.
So, Tony Pollard just decided he could run through defenses almost four months into the season, eh? I don’t think we’ve talked about it enough. Pollard has put up 265 rushing yards over the last two weeks. That number on its own is why he’s been in the top 12 in back-to-back games. But his track record makes the total all the harder to square. You’d need to add up his yardage totals from the eight games prior to match what he did in Weeks 14 and 15. And with the Chiefs’ defense also on the mend, Pollard could do it again to help his fantasy managers in the consolation bracket.
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Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals
I get that his best performance came against the Bucs, but salute to Kirk Cousins. Defenses have pressed him on over a third of his dropbacks since Michael Penix Jr.’s season-ending injury. And, yes, he faceplanted against the Seahawks. But he’s thrown for at least one passing score in the three other games with enough volume to keep fantasy managers of either Bijan Robinson or Kyle Pitts Sr. happy. It’d be great to see Drake London back out on the field, but Cousins has nonetheless shown he can elevate his teammates to fantasy-viable results.
My shoulder hurts just looking at Jacoby Brissett’s passing marks. Since taking over for Kyler Murray in Week 6, Brissett has averaged 42.8 attempts per game. Without question, that’s first amongst all starters. In fact, the gap between how often Brissett throws the ball and the next starter (Bo Nix – 36.4) is the same delta between the second-place QB and the 16th. He has just two games with fewer than 40 attempts. Of course, Michael Wilson and Trey McBride continue to shine if they’re the focal points of the passing game. But as often as their signal-caller throws the ball, volume should never be a problem.
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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos
I wasn’t surprised to see Jakobi Meyers earn an in-season extension with the Jaguars. He’s brought the best out of Trevor Lawrence. Since the Week 10 trade from the Raiders, Lawrence has hit positive marks in EPA per dropback and multi-touchdown results in four of six games. Last Sunday, he reset his career-highs in efficiency as a passer. And having a WR who can work inside and out and across the middle of the field gets him to that point. And against Denver, known for its ability to shut down perimeter receivers, Meyers’ presence puts Lawrence in a position to keep control of the AFC South.
Bo Nix played out of his mind against the Packers. He hit season-highs in EPA per dropback while still showing off his mobility. Nearly a third of his rushing attempts resulted in a first down. But the biggest improvement was his ability to connect with his receivers against zone defensive concepts. Prior to Week 15, his efficiency plummeted when more than five defenders dropped into coverage. It wasn’t the case last Sunday as he dropped four TDs on the Packers. And as the Jaguars play a similar style of defense, Nix has a chance to repeat the performance on Sunday.
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Las Vegas Raiders @ Houston Texans
So, here’s a two-leg parlay for you: you have at least one player from the Raiders on your roster, you’re still in the playoffs. In reality, Brock Bowers is the only guy anyone would consider starting. And I’d understand the logic. He’s earned +30% of the looks in four games this season, one of which was last week. However, you couldn’t plan for a worse defense for him to face. The Texans’ defensive front has harassed every opposing QB, and their secondary has kept (almost) every TE in check. Just four have scored more than 10 PPR points. You likely don’t have any better options than Bowers, but his outlook might warrant a look.
Nico Collins continues to dominate the Texans’ passing game. He scored 27.0 PPR points last week. Collins had four targets. His ability to win primarily as a perimeter receiver is what makes him stand out from his peers. And with C.J. Stroud back under center, the willingness to throw downfield is back in the Texans’ passing game. The Raiders defense can be as susceptible to the run as they are to the pass, but if Stroud lets the ball go, it’ll be in Collins’ direction.
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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
At the start of the season, Jaylen Warren had a fringe-RB1 workload. However, Kenneth Gainwell has turned things in his favor over the last month. He’s only been at a 32% rushing share since Week 12. But Gainwell has mixed in on short-yardage and goal-line attempts. More importantly, he’s turned into Aaron Rodgers’ safety valve in the passing game. His 20% target rate makes him a high-end RB3 in PPR leagues.
Not that they play the same position, but Sam LaPorta’s absence has given Jameson Williams space to ascend into the top-12 ranks. Since Week 11, Williams has just one finish as a WR2 or worse. The mix between vertical routes and crossing patterns for long gains has kick-started what most hoped would be a season-long occurrence. But we’ll take a run of 20.4 PPR PPG during the playoffs.
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New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens
TreVeyon Henderson will be an interesting offseason case study. On the one hand, folks could look at his usage over the course of his rookie season and HC Mike Vrabel’s continual reliance on Rhamondre Stevenson as a detriment. But you could also say that Henderson’s ability to maintain the majority of carries over the last few weeks (57% rushing share), along with a role in the passing game, is the right development path. Plus, as he’s a constant threat for an explosive play, everyone should be watching out for Henderson.
I could look at Zay Flowers’ opportunity profile and see a top-24 receiver in how often Lamar Jackson looks his way. Coupled with his healthy 33% air yard share, the Ravens’ WR1 should be your WR2 most weeks. But it’s the red-zone attempts, or lack thereof, that drag down his ceiling. However, that shifted last week with Flowers taking all of Jackson’s end-zone targets. If the trend continues in a must-win matchup, Flowers has a strong case to remain in our starting lineups for Week 17.
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San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts
Brock Purdy looked like he was over the toe injury that had him sidelined for most of the season. From a jump touchdown to multiple scrambles, the 49ers’ QB1 was looking like his old self against the Titans. And it was a timeline performance given Christian McCaffrey’s last-minute back injury. So now, with the Colts scrambling in a different sense to salvage their season, Purdy, operating at full capacity with a shot at the division title, should be locked into starting rosters.
You’d have to think that the Colts’ game plan will revolve around Jonathan Taylor. Yes, he had 25 carries against the Seahawks. And he was mildly effective on early downs (41.7% rushing success rate). The main problem was the lack of explosives. His longest carry was 11 yards. San Francisco plays a similar style in coverage, relying on zone concepts to keep receivers in front of them. Accordingly, it reduces the number of defenders at or close to the line of scrimmage. With a few more carries this week, Taylor can be the one to set the tone of the game with some chunk gains.
