Each week, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes through storylines that will define the week. After 15 weeks, how will the trends define semi-final fantasy playoff matchups?
Justin Herbert has chance to be fantasy playoff hero against Cowboys
In Week 11, Geno Smith had 238 passing yards versus the Cowboys and finished as the QB17 in fantasy. It is the lowest a QB has finished against the Cowboys this season, a historically bad fantasy QB defense. Justin Herbert has been struggling to say the least, but Dallas has been a get-right spot all season. The average finish of Smith, J.J. McCarthy, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields when playing Dallas this season is QB9. Against Dallas, 10 of 14 QBs have finished as QB1s on the week, with five of those 10 being the QB1 or QB2 overall.
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Since his three-game run as a top-three fantasy QB, Herbert hasn’t finished inside the top 15 for five consecutive games. It lines up perfectly with Joe Alt going down to injury for a second time. The bad news for Herbert is that, although Dallas has struggled in the secondary, they surprisingly rank eighth in pressure rate this season, with nearly 40% of dropbacks resulting in pressure. It’s been the Achilles heel for Herbert this season as his stock has plummeted without a healthy offensive line. Herbert will have to take advantage of his clean dropbacks to hit his ceiling, but I believe he is overall a much safer play than normal with the Cowboys consistent poor play.
Tua Tagovailoa benching could impact De’Von Achane, Darren Waller
Fun fact: De’Von Achane was the overall RB1 in fantasy PPR leagues last season… with Tua Tagovailoa at QB. In his six games without Tagovailoa, Achane’s PPG dropped from a league-best 22.6 to 8.6. Will things be different this time? Quinn Ewers coming in brings some risk to an otherwise perfect opportunity. The Bengals rank 32nd on the season against RBs on the ground and through the air. With Achane’s dual-threat ability, he can make game-defining plays on each snap. The Bengals rank 31st in yards before contact to pair with a struggling LB core, a disaster combo when trying to contain the Dolphins RB. Ewers needs to be able to move the ball downfield, but I trust Mike McDaniel to utilize Achane in a way to make it easier for his rookie QB.
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The surprise second factor has been the career revival of Darren Waller. Tagovailoa was a bonus for Waller as he targeted his TE in the red zone at the fourth-highest rate per route for the position. The efficiency is nearly impossible to keep consistent, as Waller has six TDs on his seven red-zone targets. However, the Bengals will certainly do their best to keep the streak going. Their 15 TDs allowed to tight ends is five more than any other team to date.
Mike Evans vs. Jaycee Horn in big Bucs-Panthers matchup
Going off of WR volume alone, we’d expect Mike Evans to be the 10th-best WR in fantasy this season. However, the game is not played on paper; the game is played on grass. In his five games, Evans is only WR46 in fantasy points per game. The volume and film suggest his scoring will be much closer to that WR10 rank going forward, as long as his volume sticks as we’d expect. In his first game back, on limited snaps, Evans led the week in air yards as he finished the day with 132 receiving yards. He’s only had one touchdown on his 44 targets compared to having 11 TDs on 110 targets last season.
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In his two games versus Carolina in 2024, Evans combined for over 200 yards to pair with three touchdowns scored. Jaycee Horn missed one of the matchups last season, but he will see Evans about 50% of the time on Sunday. Horn’s 13% target share is one of the lowest allowed in the league to help lead the Panthers top-10 defense against WRs. It may not be the perfect matchup for a ceiling game, but the hope for a bounce back to the mean keeps the hope alive for Mike Evans managers.
Will Jacoby Brissett keep top-12 QB streak going?
For nine consecutive weeks in a row, Jacoby Brissett has been a fantasy QB1. An accomplishment most Hall of Fame talents won’t reach in their career, and Brissett has done it off the bench. Only three quarterbacks this decade have averaged 42+ passing attempts per game: Brissett this season and Tom Brady in 2021 and 2022.
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After starting the season as one of the best passing defenses in the league, the Falcons’ banged-up secondary has fallen to 31st against passing fantasy points (adjusted to their schedule) over the last five weeks. In his four better-than-average matchups this season, Brissett has averaged a ridiculous 333 passing yards per game. When you pair a weekly 40+ passing attempts with a good passing matchup, the fantasy floor rises to the top.
Dan Campbell and Jameson Williams a fantasy match made in heaven
Since Dan Campbell took over calling plays in Week 10, Jameson Williams had a zero-point outing and five WR1 outings. The Lions’ rising star has seven receptions in three straight games after previously having a career high of six receptions through 44 games. The floor is what’s new. Sure, he had a zero-point game, but he’s had 9+ targets in three straight games since.
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The Steelers’ matchup is an intriguing one. The once vulnerable Pittsburgh secondary, which ranks 26th against WRs on the season, has improved to eighth-best in the last five matchups. The key factor to make up for Williams’ matchup is location. The benefit of Jared Goff playing at home, indoors, cannot be overstated. Trusting Jamo has been a trap in the past, but Campbell taking over seems to have truly changed his role.
Gardner Minshew takes over Chiefs offense for Patrick Mahomes
With Patrick Mahomes out for the year, Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce managers will have to count on Gardner Minshew for up to two more games. Minshew may not be an MVP, but he’s a better backup than most teams have. In 2024, Davante Adams averaged 15 PPR PPG in his short three-game stint with Minshew, while Jakobi Meyers still had shining moments as the solo WR1 in Las Vegas. In comparison, Rice’s 0.53 fantasy points per route ranked sixth-best while Adams was down at 0.40 with Minshew at QB. Still good enough to start in fantasy, but not as close to a WR1.
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One thing we should learn this year, however, is that new situations for quarterbacks change everything. If we went purely off of Jacoby Brissett’s starting QB numbers at his last stop with New England, Trey McBride would have been an immediate panic sell. New teams offer completely new outcomes. Two things go in favor of Minshew and his skill players in Week 16. The Chiefs offense under Andy Reid and the Titans failing pass defense. I’d much rather trust Minshew supporting this offense than 2024 Minshew supporting the Raiders (which wasn’t a complete fantasy dumpster fire). The Titans this season haven’t needed to face too much passing volume, but they rank 28th per dropback in terms of EPA.
Can Kyle Pitts Sr. build consistency coming off career performance?
Life comes at you fast. Last week, Kyle Pitts Sr. wasn’t a top-12 TE overall in fantasy. This week, he’s the TE3 overall. A major part of the (still) young TEs success was due to Drake London being out with an injury. After a two-catch game in London’s first absence, Pitts had 30 targets over the next three games with over 80 receiving yards in each. He’s become a must-start in fantasy football if London is out of the lineup. With London potentially back this week, how does it look?
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You need to average around 11 PPR points in fantasy to rank as a TE1. Pitts wasn’t that far off to begin with at 9.1 with London healthy. With Pitts having an elite-level 28% target share while QB Kirk Cousins is under center, I don’t believe it’ll fall off a cliff. Keep in mind, London may not be a full-go. With Arizona’s defense being the worst in the NFL as of late, I’m perfectly fine with firing up Pitts once again.
Is a 3-TD performance imminent for Jahmyr Gibbs?
Odd-number games on the season for Jahmyr Gibbs have been kind to his fantasy managers. Game No. 15 for the Lions comes on Sunday as Gibbs hopes to have his bi-weekly rebound in the end zone. In an “odd” number game (Game 1, 3, 5, etc) this year, Gibbs has scored 14 TDs. In “even” games, he’s scored two. Gibbs has exactly three touchdowns every other game since Week 10. The Steelers are exactly average versus RB (adding +0.0 PPG compared to a RBs average) but have yet to allow a single RB to score multiple times in a game, let alone three. Hopefully, Gibbs plays his odd-game average this week and changes that.