The NFL Draft is a notorious gamble, but one tenet holds true: If you have the No. 1 pick, you’re probably going to end up with a decent player. From 2001 to 2021, just three No. 1 picks — David Carr (2002), JaMarcus Russell (2007) and Sam Bradford (2010) failed to make a Pro Bowl in their careers.
Most teams select a quarterback with that top pick — 19 of 25 since 2000 — and virtually every team must exhibit a couple seasons of patience before that quarterback truly rises to the demands of the role. (The last quarterback to lead his team to a playoff berth in his first season: Andrew Luck, 2012.)
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There’s a certain indefinable moment when you can tell that a quarterback has made the leap to the next level — a combination of poise, confidence, accuracy and leadership that signals they’re ready not just to bark plays, but to truly lead their team. This season, several former No. 1 picks are in the process of making that leap, and the result could reshape the entire NFL playoffs.
Has Trevor Lawrence finally arrived?
Start with the obvious: 2021 No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence, who’s led the Jaguars to a playoff berth and 11 wins and counting. This is already Jacksonville’s most successful season by the numbers in Lawrence’s career; the Jaguars haven’t won 11 games in a season since 2007. Lawrence did lead the Jaguars to a miraculous 27-point comeback in the 2022-season playoffs, but aside from that, his career has been one long stretch of waiting for a breakthrough.
That moment may have arrived. The Jaguars have won six straight games, a sequence in which Lawrence has thrown 16 touchdowns and rushed for three more. He hasn’t thrown an interception in his last four games. He also unleashed, per NFL Next Gen Stats, the 14th most improbable play of the season, this weave-and-dodge sling to Travis Hunter in double coverage:
Lawrence is a key reason why the Jaguars have an 80% chance of a home playoff game and — incredibly — still have an 11% chance of the No. 1 seed in the AFC. With games remaining against Indianapolis and Houston, Jacksonville controls its own divisional destiny, and with Lawrence under center, Duval can start dreaming a little bigger than just “please, Jaguars, don’t embarrass us.”
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Have the Bears finally found a franchise QB?
And speaking of embarrassment: thanks to another No. 1 pick, another NFL franchise is no longer holding its head in shame. The Chicago Bears and 2024 No. 1 Caleb Williams, despite whatever backstage drama consumed them before the draft and in Williams’ rookie year, have found a measure of harmony that has the Bears atop the NFC North.
Sure, you can point to Williams’ anemic completion rate (57.8 percent) or the fact that most of his other stats have him outside the league’s elite QBs. Or you could simply look at one play that ended last week’s divisional showdown against Green Bay:
Williams is taking far fewer sacks than last year, and his interception total of 6 is well below most starters. He’s clearly still learning the nuances of Ben Johnson’s offense, but more importantly, he’s shown the capability to execute at the highest possible level, with the highest stakes he’s faced. That’s the kind of trend line that suggests the best days of Williams, and this current version of the Bears, are still ahead.
Bryce Young is still making his case
For the Carolina Panthers, the best days might still lie ahead … or they might be a decade behind them. With 2023 No. 1 pick Bryce Young at the helm, literally everything is possible. Forget Young’s paltry 192.2 yards per game passing average this season, and don’t put too much stock in Carolina’s division-leading 8-6 record. The only number that matters for Young is 6 — as in, the league-leading number of game-winning drives he’s executed this season.
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Young’s future with the Panthers still remains very much a question mark, given the fact that over the course of the last three seasons he’s already been benched for ineffectiveness and hasn’t exactly led the Panthers to the promised land. (Carolina has already won more games this season than Young’s first two combined.) But in the JV division that is the NFC South, Young is (potentially) good enough to keep Carolina in the hunt for a first-round playoff game. The season finale at Tampa Bay looms as the most important for Carolina since Super Bowl 50 … and the Panthers have to hope Young performs a bit better than their previous No. 1-selected quarterback did in that one.
The pressure on NFL quarterbacks is immense, and the No. 1 selection only multiplies that effect. Williams and Young are still new at this, and Lawrence hasn’t had much around him to work with. But the possibilities are wide open for all three, and at the Christmas point of the NFL season, that’s all you can ask for any team. The idea of a Jacksonville-Chicago Super Bowl would have gotten you laughed out of any sports bar as recently as August, but … here we are.
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As for the most recent No. 1 pick? Well, Cam Ward threw two touchdowns last week as his Titans defeated the Chiefs, who have been to the past seven AFC championship games. If you ignore all other context, that’s pretty impressive! We’ll check back with Cam in a couple years and see if the trend continues.
