Each Monday, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth will go over 10 important stats that you may have overlooked from this week. Week 14 had plenty of notable stats. What keys to fantasy success do you need to know that your leaguemates may have missed?
23
Touches for RJ Harvey in Week 14. The rookie running back continues to get more and more work, and in a valuable way. In his three games since the J.K. Dobbins injury, Harvey has 17.8 touches per game. More importantly, he’s had great passing-game work (13 targets) and a goal-line carry in each game. His 7.6 red-zone fantasy PPG is the real difference as he’s secured the role in a key area of the field.
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Maybe the most important factor is the receiving game. Back in draft season, one of the reasons Harvey’s upside was so attractive was the Denver passing-game tendencies with RBs. Although it’s been split this season, the Broncos still rank fourth in total RB targets per game thanks to Sean Payton and Bo Nix. And it may not be split any longer. In the first two games without Dobbins, Harvey ran 54% of the Denver RB routes. Sunday, he ran 78%, 25 of the 32. Six targets will shoot you up rankings in PPR leagues as it did in Week 14. He’ll need it in a tough matchup versus the Packers to begin the fantasy playoff stretch.
32.8
Atlanta’s half-PPR receiving fantasy PPG with Kirk Cousins starting, down from 43.8 in 2024. The only team lower this season would be the New York Jets, not the company you want in passing stats. Last season, Drake London was good with Cousins, but amazing with Michael Penix Jr. London stayed great with Penix, but Cousins’ play this year is even worse than last year. In his four starts, the veteran QB has 192 passing yards per game with three total touchdowns. Yes, his numbers would likely be a little bit better with London healthy in each game, but not enough to be confident.
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A number oh so close to 32.8, Cousins’ completion percentage on downfield throws: 32.5%, the worst in the NFL. Penix was far from perfect this season, but he has a clear connection with London downfield. On throws 10+ yards downfield, London has caught 60% from Penix, nearly double Cousins’ average. The Falcons’ schedule in the fantasy playoffs goes from good in Week 15 at Tampa Bay, good in Week 16 versus Arizona, then to poor in championship matchups against the Rams.
15.0
Tee Higgins half-PPR PPG with Joe Burrow and Joe Flacco since 2024. For those keeping track at home, that would be the WR5 in fantasy football. He is not a fantasy WR2 and really shouldn’t be in most teams’ start/sit decisions. With the Bengals’ passing volume, Higgins gets plenty of opportunities to show off his big-play talent downfield. In his 15 games with Burrow since last season, Higgins has 13 receiving touchdowns after scoring multiple on Sunday. The Bengals throw the ball in the red zone constantly, keeping the TD upside high game-to-game.
In the fantasy playoffs last year, Higgins was the overall WR2 with five touchdowns. He has the schedule to pull off something similar going forward if he can stay healthy (knock on wood). It’s been the main struggle point with Higgins in the past. Not as much long-term injuries, but small injuries that force him out of games early. In Week 14, coming off a game he left early with a concussion, Higgins was forced to go through concussion protocol twice before ultimately returning each time. However, we learned on Monday he’s now back in concussion protocol, so keep an eye out for his practice report this week to see if he will be able to play in Week 15.
19/22
Dalton Kincaid’s routes and snaps in his return from injury. Kincaid was limited in his first game back, but not in the passing game. The Bills used him deliberately on Sunday, giving him his normal route share with one snap on run plays, while Jackson Hawes played 34 snaps, with just one being a Josh Allen passing attempt (which happened to be a TD to Hawes). The efficiency is back to being incredible this year for Kincaid after a disconnect last season. He is the TE6 in PPG and will face the Patriots in the first round of the fantasy playoffs, a team he had season highs against in targets, receptions and yards earlier this year (6/6/108).
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22.9
Michael Pittman Jr.’s fantasy points with Riley Leonard on the field, if he weren’t called for OPI. The offensive pass interference that wiped off a TD was, at minimum, soft. After Daniel Jones’ Achilles injury, Leonard took over a struggling Colts offense. He did, however, play great with Pittman specifically. On his 28 routes run with Leonard, the Colts’ star WR was targeted 36% of the time, which does not count the TD reception called back. PPR is key here, as seven of the eight receptions with Leonard came on throws fewer than 10 yards downfield. On the short area targets, Pittman had seven of the 14 total receptions.
In games without starting QB Anthony Richardson Sr. last year, Pittman averaged 13.8 PPG in fantasy. He would be my clear favorite of the Colts receivers versus a tough Seattle defense next week. With Leonard, Indy had a called pass on 63% of plays, potentially adding needed volume for Pittman if Indianapolis is playing from behind again next week.
13.8
Dalton Schultz fantasy points if the Texans didn’t have an illegal shift. Maybe the most unlucky factor in all of fantasy football, a penalty that has no impact on the play, completely wipes it. In this case, a 16-yard TD. Schultz has been the quietest TE1 in the league since the Texans’ bye week. After the Week 6 bye, Schultz has ranked third in targets per game behind only the top-two fantasy TEs — Trey McBride and Brock Bowers.
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If the TD were to have counted, he’d have double-digit fantasy points in six of his last eight games. The Cardinals defense has been abysmal as of late, giving Schultz a good bounce-back opportunity for those streaming TEs in Week 15. Arizona has allowed 40+ points in three of its last five games, ranking last in scoring defense since Week 9.
27.8%
Harold Fannin Jr.’s target share in Shedeur Sanders’ three starts. One game is random, two can be a coincidence, three is a trend. I’ve loved Fannin in dynasty leagues, but didn’t think his new situation would result in the emergence we’ve seen the last couple of weeks. The rookie is third among TEs in targets per route on the year, trailing only Kincaid and McBride. Fannin leads the position in missed tackles and has been a better actual TE than fantasy TE. That can start to change at the most important time of the season. With David Njoku running three routes before injuring his knee on Sunday, Fannin’s role grew even greater.
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I’d expect Fannin to continue being a low-to-mid level fantasy TE1. For what it’s worth, Sanders at least has experience in the cold. His final outdoor college game was at Colorado in 30 degree weather. It didn’t stop him from posting his (college) usual of 438 yards and five touchdowns. Fannin and the Browns will travel to Chicago next Sunday afternoon.
19.3
Touches per game for Travis Etienne Jr. since the Week 8 bye. With Bhayshul Tuten’s play decreasing, dealing with injuries and fumbling on Sunday, Etienne has become a true bellcow in the second half of the season. His 19.3 touches are tied Chase Brown for the eighth-best mark among RBs in the second half of the season. It hasn’t all been perfect, but he has shown to have multiple weeks as a game-changer, especially in positive matchups.
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The Jets defense will be Etienne’s first matchup in the fantasy playoffs. Since losing Quinnen Williams, New York is last in the NFL in rushing fantasy PPG allowed, with Etienne scoring as the RB7 in rushing fantasy points since the bye week. Largely due to the rookie Tuten’s fumble, the Jaguars gave a season-high 91% of the RB carries to Etienne in Week 14. If that continues, Etienne can capitalize in a big way to start the fantasy playoffs.
30.8
PPR PPG for Michael Wilson in his three games without Marvin Harrison Jr. Potential league-winner? To start the playoffs, the Cardinals wideout will have one of the most difficult matchups with Texans CB Derek Stingley Jr., and I still can’t imagine sitting him. In the three weeks Harrison has sat, Wilson has 15 more targets than any other player. Other than the matchup, there aren’t many reasons it would change, at least to a point where you aren’t happily starting Wilson each week with Harrison out. Jacoby Brissett has an unprecedented five consecutive games with 40+ passing attempts. It’s made Wilson’s automatic 10 receptions and 100 yards much easier with the lack of a rushing game and deflated defense.
28
Touches for Woody Marks, the most of Week 14. That brings him up to 84 over the last month as he’s had 17 or more touches in each of his last four games. With Nick Chubb going down to injury, Marks handled 93% of the RB touches versus a tough Kansas City defense. True bellcows are rare, especially this late in the season, giving Marks league-winning upside if the Texans offense were to get hot. Nobody would be surprised if they have a boom week versus the Cardinals in Week 15.
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As mentioned earlier, Arizona’s defense has allowed the most points since Week 9 and 40+ in three of the last five games. Purely in terms of rushing fantasy PPG allowed, the Cardinals rank 28th in the second half of the season. If he carries fantasy managers to victory, Marks will be set up well again with Las Vegas in Week 16.