The Super Bowl LX matchup has been set, and the Seattle Seahawks are favored against the New England Patriots. The game will be played on Sunday, Feb. 8, at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, and it will have an estimated $1.71 billion wagered on it from American bettors at legal U.S. sportsbooks.
One bettor could end up winning nearly $4.5 million if Sam Darnold and the Seahawks win the game, thanks to a $50,000 wager on Seattle to win the Super Bowl at 60-1 odds back in August.
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With an expansive prop bet menu and many more options to wager on than a normal game, Yahoo Sports’ NFL handicappers are here to help you sort through everything to find betting value. Remember that even though it’s the last game of the season, be smart with your bankroll: Nevada sportsbooks have only lost on two Super Bowls since 1991.
Here are our favorite Super Bowl LX wagers — be sure to bookmark this page and check in daily, as we’ll be updating it all the way up to kickoff.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Side and total
Matt Jacob: The Patriots lost their season opener to the Las Vegas Raiders. By a touchdown. At home.
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The Raiders would go on to win two more games the rest of the season and now hold the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft.
Two weeks after falling to Las Vegas, the Patriots lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers. By a touchdown. At home. This was one week after the Steelers — at home — lost to the Seattle Seahawks by two touchdowns.
For the season, New England would play just four games against opponents that qualified for the postseason — Pittsburgh, Carolina and Buffalo (twice). It went 2-2 in those contests.
Think that’s unimpressive? Get a load of this: Of the 14 foes the Patriots played in the regular season …
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• 10 fired their head coaches
• Four were from the putrid NFC South
• Four started rookie quarterbacks (Cleveland’s Dillon Gabriel, Tennessee’s Cam Ward, the Jets’ Brady Cook and Miami’s Quinn Ewers)
• Two started quarterbacks in their 40s (Cincinnati backup Joe Flacco, who subbed for Joe Burrow, and Pittsburgh’s Aaron Rodgers)
• One started Spencer Rattler (New Orleans); one had a journeyman backup quarterback play the majority of the game (Baltimore’s Tyler Huntley); and one a QB who led the NFL in interceptions (Las Vegas’ Geno Smith)
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But wait, there’s more.
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The Patriots played eight games against teams that finished with fewer than seven victories. They played eight games against teams that didn’t have their No. 1 wide receiver (plus one more in the playoffs). And they barely won the AFC Championship Game against an opponent whose quarterback (Jarrett Stidham) entered the contest with four NFL starts under his belt.
Now the luckiest team in recent memory heads to Super Bowl 60 to face a Seahawks squad that has won nine consecutive games (including four by 17-plus points).
It’s a franchise that beat the Rams and 49ers to close the regular season, then did it again in the playoffs.
A franchise that ranked in the top 10 in almost every major statistical category (including No. 1 in scoring defense, and No. 3 in both scoring offense and rushing defense).
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And a franchise that won its only championship in blowout fashion (43-8 over Denver in Super Bowl 48). Expect a similar lopsided result in Super Bowl 60.
Bet: Seahawks -13.5 (+280)
Matt Russell: Well, that’s aggressive, and even if I hate it, damnit do I respect it. Unfortunately, somebody has to take the other side, both against the spread and with less veracity.
The Seahawks also played the four teams of the vaunted NFC South, to go along with Cam Ward’s Titans, the Commanders and the putrid Cardinals twice. Throw in home games against the oldest of all the quarterbacks — Philip Rivers off the street — and rookie-est of all the quarterbacks — Max Brosmer — even if we acknowledge the obvious coziness of the Patriots’ schedule, it’s hard to argue the Seahawks faced some daunting slate.
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The Seahawks are dining out on dominating an exhausted 49ers’ team ravaged by injury, with a week off in-between, and edging the Rams 2-1 in a thrilling, competitive trilogy.
[Get more Patriots news: New England team feed]
A year ahead in their rebuild timeline, Seattle got out faster than New England, with impressive passing offense and defensive run metrics by EPA/Play in the first half of the season. Meanwhile, an entirely new Patriots team and coaching staff lost that first game, a toss-up, before the Raiders lost all hope in the season soon after. Then New England fumbled the Steelers game away by putting the ball on the ground five times despite dominating the boxscore.
The Seahawks’ market rating quickly shot up into the upper echelon of the NFL, as they caught many of their best opponents, like the Jaguars and Texans, at their low point of the season. It created the assumption that the Rams-Seahawks games were titanic battles between teams head and shoulders above the rest, even as the Rams lost to the Falcons, barely beat the Panthers and almost blew it in Chicago. Yet, few seem bothered enough to re-evaluate the rating for the teams atop the NFC West.
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Isn’t it more likely that in a league designed for parity, in a season where the perceived top dogs disappointed, that no team is even close to an all-time great?
That’s what would be required of the Seahawks for a projected line of -3.5 to re-open fairly at -4.5, but because beating the Rams is more impressive than beating the Broncos with Jarret Stidham — and the Patriots are perceived have gotten this far because of their opponents’ poor quarterback play — that’s where we are. However, if you step back, there really isn’t that much difference between these two teams.
When healthy with all three of Christian Barmore, Milton Williams, Khyiris Tonga, the Patriots run defense has allowed -0.12 EPA/Play, which would be third to the Seahawks’ -0.187 rating against run in the regular season. With neither team able to run in this game, now we’re looking at quarterbacks required to carry the day, both of whom are equally capable of a rash of turnovers.
The difference this season for Darnold has been Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but he hasn’t faced the focus of a cornerback of the caliber of Christian Gonzalez, who has led the Patriots to the best EPA/Play against the pass since he first played a full complement of snaps in Week 5 (he missed the Raiders and Steelers games).
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While that could all be undermined by re-referencing the Patriots’ schedule, it’s no different than the Hawks’ unit allowing 581 and 479 to the Rams’ offense at home, in two of the few games they’ve played against a capable team at full strength.
I’m not calling for the upset, but there’s far less between the two teams than the betting market perceives because of recent results and the standard schedule-centric talking points. Getting 4.5 points with a coaching staff with extensive experience on handling the unusual elements of the Super Bowl, the Patriots are the valuable side.
Bet: Patriots +4.5
Prop bets
Russell: If it feels like we haven’t lost one of these in a while, it’s because THE WINDOW’s player prop submission into these selections has hit six straight from the divisional round through the conference championships.
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This game is going to be a grind. While the Texans, Broncos, and others have a more spectacular pass rush than New England and Seattle, no teams are more solidly schemed with their ability to confuse coverage and hold up against the run.
The offense is either going to be punting frequently, when Maye and Darnold aren’t turning the ball over, or creating the occasional short fields, which probably translate into field goals. Mix in the possibility that the Patriots — a franchise that’s focused on making teams play left-handed since Mike Vrabel was a player in these games — do everything they can to take away Darnold’s favorite target, and it’s hard to picture this being a game where he’s throwing the Seahawks up and down the field.
If Seattle’s defense can convert Maye turnovers into points, they’ll win, but the worst case seems to be that a close game doesn’t compel Darnold to be throwing the ball all over Levi’s Stadium.
Bet: Sam Darnold under 227.5 passing yards
Russell: As for the Patriots, let’s assume that Josh McDaniels spends two weeks coming up with a better plan than running Rhamondre Stevenson straight into the best run defense this season. It’s time to empty the bag of tricks, and that should mean a little more TreVeyon Henderson, using Maye’s legs, and pushing the ball down the field against a Seahawks’ defense that has been vulnerable to long passes from the few good quarterbacks they have faced this season. Plus, if Matt Jacob is right, and this is a blowout, there’s no way Stevenson gets to 15 totes.
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Bet: Rhamondre Stevenson under 14.5 rush attempts
Jacob: Slightly more than three field goals per game. That’s what the last five opponents have averaged against New England’s defense.
The raw numbers: 46 total points and four touchdowns allowed in 300 minutes of action.
Now let’s review the five quarterbacks the Patriots suffocated during this dominant defensive run:
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Brady Cook (Jets rookie making his fourth NFL start)
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Quinn Ewers (Dolphins rookie making his third NFL start)
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Justin Herbert (Chargers starter)
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C.J. Stroud (Texans starter)
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Jarrett Stidham (Broncos backup making his fifth NFL start)
A quick word about Herbert and Stroud: The former played behind a makeshift offensive line for most of the season, while the latter treated the football like a hot potato in two playoff games (five interceptions, five fumbles). Oh, and Herbert is now 0-for-3 in the playoffs (all on the road), while Stroud is 1-for-4 as a visitor in the postseason.
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So forgive me for being reluctant to compare the 2026 Patriots’ defense with the 1985 Chicago Bears defense.
No, I’m not dropping an F-bomb (“fraud”) on New England’s stop unit. I am, however, saying the recent numbers need to be taken in context. After all, immediately prior to this five-game stretch, the Patriots’ defense was carved up by the Ravens (24 points in Week 15) and Bills (35 points in Week 16). The starting QBs in those games: Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
I get it — there’s a large faction of NFL fans (and bettors) still waiting for the “real” Sam Darnold to show up. But here’s reality: Seattle scored 72 points in playoff wins over the 49ers and Rams after averaging 28.4 points per game in the regular season.
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The Seahawks scored at least 26 PPG in 13 of 18 games (including 10 of the last 13); they’ve hit the 30-point plateau 10 times; and they’ve topped 40 points on three occasions.
Has Darnold done it all by himself? Absolutely not. In fact, the defense and special teams have had a massive impact on Seattle’s scoring output. It has been a total team effort — and I’m betting we see it again in Super Bowl 60 with the Seahawks lighting up the scoreboard one last time.
Bet: Seahawks team total over 25.5 points (-120)
Jacob: The fact that Drake Maye can move is not exactly breaking news. Opposing defenses have known for quite some time that the Patriots’ 6-foot-4, 225-pound quarterback is willing to abandon the pocket and — more importantly — able to pick up chunks of real estate with his legs.
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Doing something about it? That’s a different story.
Over his past seven games, Maye has popped at least one run of more than 13 yards five times. The only exceptions: He had long rushes of 11 yards against the Jets in Week 17 and 8 yards against Houston in the divisional round.
In Super Bowl 60, Maye will be facing an aggressive Seahawks pass rush that I expect to dominate a Patriots offensive line that has given up five sacks in each of its three playoff wins.
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Translation: Maye will be given the green light to take off whenever he feels the heat, and I’m banking on him turning at least one of his scampers into a sizable gain — just like Brock Purdy did in the divisional round (18-yard run) and old-man Matthew Stafford did in the NFC championship game (13-yard run).
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Among the quarterbacks who had big runs against Seattle in the regular season: Kyler Murray (29 yards), Jacoby Brissett (15 yards), C.J. Stroud (15 yards) and Cam Ward (14 yards).
Bet: Drake Maye longest rush over 13.5 yards (-115)
Jacob: A big reason why the Patriots’ defense had so much success this season: It didn’t face many top-tier pass-catchers. To that point:
Mike Evans didn’t play when the Buccaneers hosted New England in Week 10. Ja’Marr Chase was suspended when the Patriots played in Cincinnati in Week 12 (and Joe Flacco was the Bengals’ quarterback). Garrett Wilson was hurt for both of the Jets’ games against the Pats. Malik Nabers was in street clothes when the Giants went to New England in Week 13. And Tyreek Hill was long gone by the time the Dolphins played in Foxborough in Week 18.
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Hill, however, was on the field when Miami hosted the Patriots in Week 2, and he racked up 109 receiving yards.
The only other notable tight ends and wideouts who suited up against New England this year: the Raiders’ Brock Bowers (103 yards); the Bills’ Dalton Kincaid (108 yards in the first meeting, 34 yards in the second meeting); Chris Olave (98 yards); Drake London (118 yards), Emeka Egbuka (115 yards); DK Metcalf (32 yards); and Courtland Sutton (17 yards).
[Get more Seahawks news: Seattle team feed]
Sutton, of course, had Jarrett Stidham as his quarterback. So the only elite pass catchers the Patriots contained were Kincaid (once) and Metcalf.
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Which brings me to Seahawks wide receiver (and Metcalf’s former teammate) Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
The third-year pro had an NFL-high 1,793 receiving yards in the regular season. He racked up more than 90 receiving yards in 12 of Seattle’s first 14 games. And he’s topped 100 yards 10 times (including 153 yards against the Rams in the NFC championship game).
This is why Smith-Njigba will be the Patriots’ top defensive priority on Super Bowl Sunday. Will it matter? Nope.
Bet: Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 93.5 receiving yards (-130)
Ed Feng: My interception model depends on the rate at which a quarterback throws the football into dangerous situations. The play-by-play data tracks these plays as both interceptions and passes defended, or plays in which the defense gets a hand on the ball.
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Once a quarterback throws the football into a dangerous situation, he has no control over whether it ends up as an interception. Seattle QB Sam Darnold has had 24.6% of his dangerous passes end up as interceptions this season. Since the NFL average is 18.2%, Darnold has gotten unlucky with interceptions this season, and we expect strong regression to the mean.
There is some idea out there that Darnold chokes in big games. People think about his collapse last season against the Lions and the Rams in his final two games with the Minnesota Vikings. NFL quarterbacks have bad games. Darnold has been brilliant this season (and unlucky with interceptions). Can we put this Darnold collapse narrative to rest?
My interception model gives a 53.1% chance Darnold that doesn’t throw a pick in the Super Bowl. The price at BetMGM is quite a bit off market.
Bet: Sam Darnold under 0.5 interceptions (+110)
Ed Feng: This market for Henry is low because of his lack of production in the last two games (17 receiving yards on three catches and six targets against excellent Denver and Houston defenses). Based on season-long numbers, Henry should have a 20% target share (projection of 4.4 receptions).
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In addition, Seattle’s excellent defense allows a 25% target share to tight ends, 10th-highest in the NFL. Dalton Schultz (nine catches, 98 yards) and Kyle Pitts (six catches, 90 yards) had big games against the Seattle defense.
Henry should return to his role as Maye’s outlet, and while Henry hasn’t been practicing this week it’s not due to injury. He should have a little extra rest as a 31-year old-veteran.
Bet: Hunter Henry over 3.5 receptions (-140)
Corbie Craig: Levi’s Stadium quietly flipped from a kicker’s nightmare to a mild edge.
On paper, Santa Clara sets up perfectly for Super Bowl football — clear skies, roughly 65 degrees and no weather chaos after a brutal winter storm swept across much of the country. But historically, Levi’s Stadium played smaller than it looked. Open end-zone corners created swirling drafts and crosswinds that consistently knocked it below league-average kicking efficiency. That changed this season.
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As part of a major offseason renovation — including a $200M jumbotron upgrade — wind flow inside the stadium stabilized. The result: field-goal conditions improved to roughly 3.5% better than league average, with visiting kickers converting 88% of attempts this year.
With a game script that leads me to believe endzone shots will be tough, these two will take the points when they can.
Bet: Over 3.5 field goals made (-103)