The sweet spot of the start of the holiday season, the turn of the new year and the fast lane to the All-Star break is one of my favorite parts of the NBA regular season. This is a stretch that truly tests a team’s identity. The league knows who they are, and they have to find ways to consistently produce.
For rookies, around this time of year you start to feel the impact of what they’re bringing to their team every single night. And you start to see the pattern of what happens to their teams when they aren’t able to hit that same production level. Also lurking around the corner is that rookie wall, the schedule preparing to knock at your door on any given night.
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As much as it’s about the rookies needing to make adjustments, it’s about trusting the skill sets that earned them their roles in the first place. Let’s take a look at how the top rookies are performing at the start of the new year.
1. Cooper Flagg, Mavericks
Flagg leads the Mavericks in total points, rebounds, assists and steals, and he is the only rookie to be in the the top 3 in those same categories. His game continues to grow, but what stands out most is his consistent confidence in his ability to attack night in and night out.
With every hang dribble or hesitation, Flagg is showcasing a stronger feel on how to get to his spots. It’s not just the vision to read the space defenses are giving him, it’s the confidence to set them up for either a pull-up or drive. A dribble handoff might result in a catch, a hold, a quick glance and an attack while the defense is off-balance. The league hasn’t quite caught up to the strength of his left-hand drive, and he excels getting to it in high pick-and-roll. There’s a reason why the Mavs have handed the wheels over.
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2. Kon Knueppel, Hornets
There are only three players in the NBA who have made 130 or more 3s so far. Donovan Mitchell (133), Stephen Curry (132) and Knueppel (130). Speaking of Curry, Knueppel has already broken Curry’s rookie record for the most games with 20-plus points on 50/40/90 shooting splits (12).
Make no mistake about it, these 3s are not all of the catch-and-shoot variety. Knueppel understands how to create space for himself, will leverage a shot-fake to get to a side-step, or may just pull up regardless of what the defense is doing. Throw in his consistent willingness to drive, and it starts to sink in how he keeps defenses off-balance — and why he’s put together such a strong rookie campaign.
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3. VJ Edgecombe, 76ers
Impact is something that doesn’t always get appreciated when it comes to rookie campaigns. Despite the highs and lows, there is little to doubt with how Edgecombe has helped the Sixers this season. His production was key as the team dealt with injuries, and we’ve arrived at a point where the Sixers are not just dancing with an outright playoff berth but doing so because of what Edgecombe delivers on a nightly basis.
Philadelphia is 8-2 this season when Edgecombe scores 20 or more points and 7-1 when both Edgecombe and Tyrese Maxey score 20 or more. His shotmaking returning has helped, but he’s also shown increased comfort and connection with Joel Embiid and Paul George as they have returned to form. Keep an eye on Edgecombe’s growth in pick-and-rolls with Embiid and how the Sixers will use him as a screener for Maxey to open up even more space to attack.
4. Cedric Coward, Grizzlies
Sometimes in life it comes down to finding a way to contribute and be effective even when you’re not fully at your best. The 3-point shooting dipped once again, going from 30.7% in November (23 of 75) to 27.7% in December (13 of 47). Would you believe me if I told you he shot 50.8% from the field even with that 3-point shooting? (Spoiler alert: He did.)
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His adjustment was to attack in transition, find gaps when spaced on the perimeter and drive the basketball in the half-court. The result was shooting 70% from within eight feet (42 of 60). While you’d love to see the full package, problem-solving and self-awareness generally serve young players well in the long run.
5. Derik Queen, Pelicans
The passing from Queen, who leads all rookies in assists with 153, continues to set the table for his strong campaign. He has been a bright spot for the Pelicans as they navigate this season. But the one thing that continues to stick out to me is Queen’s driving ability.
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The Pelicans have mixed in more inverted pick-and-roll, having a guard screen for Queen as he brings the ball up. It’s not so much the speed that you feel on his drives, but the craft: the ball-handling to navigate tight quarters, the ability to take space if there is a gap, the nifty and nimble footwork that serves as a prelude to a shoulder in your chest or a spin move to get you off-balance. Defensively, his primary effort tends to be OK, but it’s the second effort that leaves an area for opportunity.
6. Dylan Harper, Spurs
The drives from Harper remain a constant; according to the NBA’s tracking data, he was up to 10.5 drives per game in the month of December while delivering on the Spurs’ three-guard attack. The production around those drives is what has taken a hit as 40 of his 58 made field goals in December came in the restricted area, while he shot 18 of 73 from all other zones.
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The mentality, mindset and skill remain the same, so this could be a case of needing to see the ball go through the basket. You do want to avoid a world where defenses are helping off you when you’re spaced, daring you to shoot and staying at home on your drives.
7. Jeremiah Fears, Pelicans
The hallmark of Fears’ rookie campaign had been a (somewhat) surprising string of consistency, but a 21-game streak of scoring 10-plus points has turned into single-digit scoring in seven of his last 15 games. It’s nothing new for a rookie as teams work to adjust, but it can feel different optically when scoring is what brings you to the dance.
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The lack of fear has not changed, but teams have been more willing to put size and length against him; mix in unders and switches in pick-and-roll to disrupt his rhythm; show help to take away driving lanes; and work to contest. Fears’ shotmaking hasn’t been there to loosen things up. The good thing about the confidence Fears plays with is it’s safe to assume the microwave will heat back up.
8. Egor Dёmin, Nets
Dёmin has the second-most made 3-pointers (72) by a rookie this season, and the most through 30 games in Nets franchise history. He is shooting 41.1% from 3 over his past 15 games and has made three or more 3s in five of his last seven games. That has added more confidence to his offensive attack. Teams will still look to pressure him and be physical, but there is not a ton of hesitation to let it fly when given space.
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His assist volume hasn’t been high, but the placement and timing of his passing ability has popped on film. The work to improve as a weakside defender within Brooklyn’s context has also stood out to me.
9. Maxime Raynaud, Kings
In the month of December, Raynaud averaged 15.5 points (fourth-best among rookies), made 80 field goals (tied for second) and averaged 9.3 rebounds per game (first among rookies) with three offensive rebounds per game (first among rookies).
He does a nice job of working around the dunker spot, trying to flash into open areas when defenders help but, more importantly, putting him in a great position to attack the glass. He’s at his best in pick-and-roll when he works to get set, make solid contact and stay in the ball-handler’s vision for a pocket pass.
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10. Caleb Love, Trail Blazers
The shot-making from Love has been elevated during this stretch of basketball. The Blazers guard has knocked down two or more 3-pointers in nine straight games and three or more 3s in six of his last nine. But more important for Portland has been his impact on both ends of the floor.
Love provides energy and effort, always ready to pressure the ball full court and willing to fly around defensively. There’s also a poise and composure in the way he works to change speeds with the ball in is hands. The Blazers are 9-4 when Love plays more than 25 minutes this season.
Honorable mentions: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Hornets; Tre Johnson, Wizards; Collin Murray-Boyles, Raptors; Ryan Nembhard, Mavericks; Hugo González, Celtics
