With the recent success of Japanese players like Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Roki Sasaki, teams throughout baseball have been clamoring to add stars from Japan to their rosters. The Houston Astros and the Toronto Blue Jays did just that by bringing in Tatsuya Imai and Kazuma Okamoto, with hopes of having similar impacts on their game.
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On this episode of Baseball Bar-B-Cast, Jordan Shusterman is joined by guest host Eric Longenhagen from FanGraphs to talk about the two signings and how their skill sets might be adjusted to the major league level. They then check in on the Scott Boras Scoreboard to try to determine how the super agent did with his deal for Imai.
Later, Jordan is joined by Astros beat writer Chandler Rome from The Athletic as they dig a little deeper into the Imai signing and try to figure out why he chose to go to Houston. They then talk about what the future might hold for the team after this signing and how, positionally, the Astros could be set up for the 2026 season. Jordan and Eric then discuss how recent events in Venezuela could impact baseball and talk about the fall of a top prospect.
Dončić, in his first full season with the Los Angeles Lakers after last year’s shocking trade, has pulled in 2,229,811 votes, and Antetokounmpo, in his 13th season with the Milwaukee Bucks, has 2,092,284 votes to his name.
Fans are responsible for 50% of the vote that selects each conference’s five starters. NBA players (25%) and a media panel (25%) account for the other slices of the vote.
Voting concludes Jan. 14 at 11:59 p.m. ET. That day, as well as Wednesday this week, will mark the final “3-for-1 Days,” on which each fan vote counts three times.
It’s also worth noting that Denver Nuggets star center Nikola Jokić and New York Knicks standout point guard Jalen Brunson are both second among vote-getters in their conferences in the second fan returns. Brunson, who has averaged 31.2 points per game since Dec. 5, has surpassed Philadelphia 76ers’ point guard Tyrese Maxey since the first fan returns. Now Maxey is third, not second, in Eastern Conference fan voting.
Here are the top 10 vote-getters from the second fan returns, regardless of conference:
Owners of MLB’s best regular-season record and a franchise-record 97 wins in 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers crashed out of last year’s postseason in fairly humiliating fashion. It’s one thing to be eliminated by the eventual World Series champions — and it’s no secret that the Los Angeles Dodgers wielded a particularly powerful roster — but the degree to which Milwaukee was outclassed in the NLCS undeniably began the winter on a sobering, sour note that made the rollicking success of the regular season feel like a distant memory. The Brewers were outscored 15-4 over the course of the four-game sweep. Worse, they hit a combined .118/.191/.193, amounting to a paltry .384 OPS that was the second-lowest mark ever by a team in a championship series.
After a summer filled with magical moments and an early-round playoff triumph over the rival Cubs, the Brewers fell short of what would have been just the second World Series appearance in franchise history. At the same time, their enormous sample of winning in the months prior was another reminder of the organization’s unique ability to remain ultra-competitive on a yearly basis, regardless of payroll or roster turnover. Still, Milwaukee repeatedly coming close over the past decade without actually reaching the Fall Classic raises the question of what this organization can do to ensure that final destination is finally reached.
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To that end, the offseason represents an opportunity for contenders to make the necessary roster upgrades to advance further the following season. But the Brewers haven’t acted with any kind of urgency this winter — a sharp contrast to the transactional activity of another team that suffered postseason heartbreak against the Dodgers, the Toronto Blue Jays, who have responded to their World Series loss with multiple major signings. Meanwhile, the Brewers’ activity in free agency has consisted of retaining Brandon Woodruff via the qualifying offer and signing outfielder Akil Baddoo to a split deal that doesn’t guarantee a roster spot. That’s it.
Of course, the difference in market size and spending power must be acknowledged when comparing Milwaukee’s offseason to those of their rivals, but the Brewers’ relative passivity still stands as an interesting organizational response to what occurred in 2025. They aren’t alone in this category, but the Brewers’ outsized regular-season success followed by a particularly unpleasant postseason exit make their timid hot stove strategy worthy of a deeper look.
With pitchers and catchers reporting to Maryvale, Arizona, in a little more than a month, here are four big questions looming over the Brew Crew:
1. Will they trade Freddy Peralta?
Amidst a starting pitching market that hasn’t really gotten moving this offseason, the Brewers have one of the most valuable trade chips in the league in Peralta, who is coming off the best season of his career and slated to make just $8 million in 2026 before reaching free agency. Most players in Peralta’s position and of his caliber would seem like the last player a team would entertain trading, considering his value, but the Brewers have consistently demonstrated a willingness to deal away key players before their contracts expire in an effort to recoup valuable future assets; Peralta’s former rotationmate Corbin Burnes is the most glaring recent example.
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Replicating the Burnes gambit now looms as a possibility as multiple teams inquire about Peralta, and there’s an argument that Peralta could fetch even more in a trade than what Burnes yielded from Baltimore (shortstop Joey Ortiz, left-hander DL Hall, and draft pick eventually used on first baseman Blake Burke, who reached Double-A in his first full professional season in 2025). Peralta isn’t quite as accomplished on the whole as Burnes was at the time of his trade, but he’s coming off a better season, and his modest salary is much more attractive than the roughly $16 million Burnes was projected to make in his final year of arbitration.
Assuming super-ace Tarik Skubal isn’t dealt, Peralta is arguably the best pitcher left on the free-agent or trade markets, comparing favorably not only to fellow trade candidates such as MacKenzie Gore and Edward Cabrera but also to the top free-agent arms such as Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez and Zac Gallen. It’s not hard to see why teams would be willing to pay a hefty price to land Peralta, even for just one season, and such offers might prove too enticing for the Brewers to pass up.
That said, trading yet another longtime fan favorite is not a decision to be taken lightly, even if Milwaukee has done this dance before. And executing such a trade while meaningfully improving the roster for 2026 is a delicate balance to strike — if it’s possible at all.
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2. What are the expectations for Jacob Misiorowski in 2026?
Beyond whether Milwaukee can extract enough value in a trade for Peralta, the other key consideration when weighing such a move involves the strength of the rotation with or without him. Keeping Woodruff via the qualifying offer is one crucial piece of that puzzle, though his durability moving forward remains a serious question considering his ailments in recent years, including a lat strain that rendered him unavailable for the postseason. The Brewers have also demonstrated an ability to turn pitchers who failed to flourish with other organizations into impactful arms in Milwaukee, with Quinn Priester and Chad Patrick the latest examples fortifying the club’s rotation depth and Tobias Myers another relevant character in that regard.
However, few pitchers across the entire sport enter 2026 with as much intrigue as Misiorowski. The lanky right-hander, who will turn just 24 years old in April, enjoyed a supersonic ascent to stardom last season, a roller-coaster ride that also featured some notable points of adversity but finished on an encouraging note given how he looked in the postseason, when he struck out 16 batters while allowing just two earned runs in 12 innings across three appearances.
Fresh off his star turn in 2025 — and after a notable jump in workload to a career-high 129⅓ frames across the minors, majors and postseason — what is a realistic outlook for Misiorowski’s sophomore campaign? Will he continue striking out boatloads of batters with his otherworldly stuff, or will he ultimately prove too wild to be a reliable rotation option, validating a concern that has followed him throughout his trajectory as a prospect?
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The degree of confidence that Milwaukee has in Misiorowski to develop into its next frontline arm could play a role in the team’s decision to trade or hold onto Peralta. And Peralta ramifications aside, Misiorowski’s development will be well worth monitoring in 2026.
Outside of Baddoo — an intriguing bounce-back target in the mold of some other reclamation projects who have thrived in Milwaukee but far from a sure bet to contribute — the most prominent addition Milwaukee has made to its offensive unit this offseason is a couple of new hitting coaches ( including former slugger Daniel Vogelbach). In fact, the Brewers have technically subtracted from their offense more than they’ve added, trading Isaac Collins to Kansas City coming off Collins’ unlikely breakout campaign in which he finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting.
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Left-hander Angel Zerpa — the return for Collins in that deal — might well make an important impact on the mound for Milwaukee, but he isn’t going to help the team’s run-production efforts, and that raises questions about whether there will be any offensive upgrades before Opening Day for an offense that ranked 11th in OPS and 22nd in home runs in 2025 and flamed out against the Dodgers in October.
Perhaps reinforcements could come in the return in a Peralta trade (or some other trade), or there are still a good number of free-agent bats available who could help the Brewers and won’t cost a ton, such as Miguel Andujar or Austin Hays. First base — depending how confident Milwaukee is in Andrew Vaughn’s renaissance — and left field are two spots to monitor for upgrades, especially if the Brewers are intent on sticking with Joey Ortiz at shortstop, as has been reported.
4. What is Jackson Chourio’s ceiling?
If Misiorowski represents the most tantalizing and critical pitcher to project for Milwaukee, Chourio is unquestionably the most important bat when assessing the overall strength of the position-player group. After flashing tremendous potential as a 20-year-old rookie, Chourio turned in a sophomore season with eerily similar surface-level totals — seriously, go look at how nearly identical his first two seasons were — but his underlying metrics regressed just enough to make Chourio’s second campaign a modest disappointment, albeit nothing that would dampen his outlook as a future star.
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Now 2026 represents a pivotal opportunity for Chourio to demonstrate that he’s still on track to be a face-of-the-franchise type of player, and he’ll need to prove it on both sides of the ball. He has obvious potential as a power-speed dynamo, but his value to Milwaukee in the long term will be dictated even more by how he progresses as a defender.
Should Chourio prove he can play a capable center field — where he started 91 games in the regular season before exclusively playing corner outfield in the postseason — that would lessen the pressure on his bat to hit at superstar levels while enhancing Milwaukee’s roster flexibility. If he settles into left or right field instead, it will become paramount for Chourio the hitter to elevate his output.
There’s plenty of time for Chourio to make the necessary adjustments to upgrade his game with the bat and the glove — he turns just 22 in March, after all — but how quickly and how dramatically those improvements take place will play a big part in Milwaukee’s plans and ambitions for the foreseeable future.
Nate Tice & Matt Harmon reveal their 2025 All-Football 301 Team: the most underrated players at every position this NFL season (no Pro Bowlers allowed). Nate & Matt start off the show with thoughts on the various coaching changes that took place around the NFL on Black Monday, including reactions to Kliff Kingsbury departing the Washington Commanders, which opening is the most intriguing, where Kevin Stefanski will land and more.
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Next, Nate & Matt reveal the offense for the All-Football 301 Team as they discuss under-appreciated stars this season like WR Parker Washington, QB Mac Jones, TE Brenton Strange and the most under-appreciated guys along the offensive line.
On the defensive side of the ball, the two hosts break down what makes players like Chase Young, Jordyn Brooks, Jalen Pitre and more so underrated for their respective defenses. While only about a dozen players make the final team, the two hosts cover a ton of players that don’t get enough respect around the NFL.
(3:10) – Black Monday reactions
(19:30) – All-Football 301 Team: skill players
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(47:25) – All-Football 301 Team: offensive line
(1:00:05) – All-Football 301 Team: defensive line
(1:13:40) – All-Football 301 Team: defensive back seven
CLEVELAND, OHIO – NOVEMBER 30: Mac Jones #10 of the San Francisco 49ers celebrates a 2-yard touchdown run by Brock Purdy during the third quarter against the Cleveland Browns at Huntington Bank Field on November 30, 2025 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
(Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
Near the end of the third quarter, Murray suffered the latest injury in a string of setbacks that have disrupted his fourth season in the NBA, a season in which his team, collectively, has been ravaged by injuries while posting the third-worst record in the league.
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The 8-28 Kings announced Tuesday that an MRI revealed the 25-year-old Iowa product is dealing with a moderate left ankle sprain, and that he will be reevaluated in three-to-four weeks.
Just before New Year’s, the 2022 No. 4 overall pick returned from a calf injury that cost him a pair of games in late December.
His ankle issue stemmed from a third-quarter drive Sunday. With the Kings trailing the Bucks by 15 points and around four minutes remaining in the frame, Murray attacked the paint.
He was met by Milwaukee center Myles Turner. After being tied up by Turner, Murray tried to dish a mid-air pass to Kings big man Drew Eubanks. It didn’t connect, and Murray took an awkward fall.
Once he landed, he reached for his left ankle. Murray ultimately needed assistance as he limped to the locker room.
Murray, who previously appeared in 233 of a possible 246 games over his first three seasons, is currently averaging 14.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game, however, his 42.9% field-goal percentage and 27.2% 3-point percentage are career lows.
He’s far from the only Kings player bit by the injury bug this season.
Rookie center Maxime Raynaud had an injury scare in the fourth quarter of a 129-102 defeat to the Phoenix Suns on Friday.
Raynaud was back in the lineup Sunday against the Bucks, and so was Zach LaVine. The two-time All-Star guard was coming off a nine-game absence due to a left ankle injury of his own.
The Kings have lost five games in a row, all by double digits. They have the worst point differential average (minus-12) in the NBA, and they can’t seem to catch a break health-wise.
The Ravens announced Harbaugh’s dismissal in a statement from team owner Steve Bisciotti, who wrote:
“Following a comprehensive evaluation of the season and the overall direction of our organization, I decided to make a change at head coach. … This was an incredibly difficult decision, given the tremendous 18 years we have spent together and the profound respect I have for John as a coach and, more importantly, as a great man of integrity.”
Harbaugh released a statement of his own that the Ravens shared upon his dismissal.
“Well I was hoping for a different kind of message on my last day here, someday, but that day has come today,” Harbaugh wrote. “It comes with disappointment certainly, but more with gratitude and appreciation.”
Harbaugh’s job may have come down in part to fateful missed field goal
The Ravens got off to a 1-5 start that was exacerbated by multiple injuries to two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson. They rallied to improve to 6-5 to get back into playoff contention and had a chance to make the postseason Sunday night. But they needed to beat the Steelers to clinch that berth, and they didn’t.
The Ravens (8-9) were in a position to win Sunday’s game after driving into field-goal range in the final seconds. But Tyler Loop missed a 44-yard attempt as time expired, and the Steelers held on for a 26-24 win that secured the AFC North and ended the Ravens’ season.
The loss proved to be the final straw for Harbaugh’s tenure in a tumultuous last season with the team. At 18 seasons, Harbaugh was the second-longest tenured head coach in the NFL behind Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin.
Per The Athletic’s Dianna Russini, Harbaugh refused to consider moving on from offensive coordinator Todd Monken in his discussions with team management, and that became a “key pressure point” in his dismissal.
John Harbuagh is out with the Baltimore Ravens after 18 years as head coach.
(Kevin Sabitus via Getty Images)
Losses, reported tension tank Super Bowl hopes
With Jackson and All-Pro running back Derrick Henry anchoring the offense of a team that finished 12-5 in 2024, the Ravens were picked by many as preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl. Those hopes in Baltimore were muted even before injuries began to derail Jackson’s season.
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Baltimore got off to a 1-2 start before Jackson injured his hamstring in a Week 4 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Ravens lost their next two starts with Cooper Rush at quarterback, but surged back into playoff contention in a weak AFC North with a five-game midseason win streak.
But the Ravens couldn’t maintain that momentum as injuries hampered Jackson for the rest of the season and reports of discord between Harbaugh and Jackson surfaced. The Ravens closed with a 2-4 streak and missed the playoffs with an 8-9 record.
As the losses and rumblings of in-house tension mounted, so did the pressure on Harbaugh’s job.
Harbaugh is a franchise stalwart who has coached the Ravens for more than half of their 30-year existence. He led the Ravens to the playoffs in 12 of his 18 seasons and finished with a losing record just three times.
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He coached the Ravens to a Super Bowl championship after the 2012 season, defeating his brother Jim and the San Francisco 49ers in New Orleans. Under Harbaugh, the Ravens were a consistent winner and one of the NFL’s standout franchises.
Disappointment in Jackson-Harbaugh era piled up
But disappointment and early exits in the postseason became the predominant theme of the Jackson era in Baltimore. With a two-time MVP at quarterback, the Ravens have failed to advance to the Super Bowl much less win one in Jackson’s eight seasons with the team.
They’ve won the AFC North four times and posted 10-plus wins in six of Jackson’s eight seasons. But they’ve been to the AFC championship game just once and are 3-6 in the postseason in that span.
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Jackson is 28 and presumably has several years left in his prime. The Ravens ultimately decided they need new leadership to optimize the remainder of Jackson’s tenure after repeatedly failing to meet expectations when the stakes were at their highest.
The Harbaugh era will ultimately be remembered fondly in Baltimore as one predominantly defined by winning. But Monday’s decision was about building the future around Jackson.
Dan Campbell is once again looking for a new offensive coordinator.
The Lions fired offensive coordinator John Morton on Tuesday, the team announced, ending his tenure with the franchise after just one season. The longtime NFL assistant was hired to replace Ben Johnson a year ago after Johnson left for the head job with the Chicago Bears.
The Lions finished the season with just a 9-8 record with Morton leading their offense. They missed the playoffs for the first time since 2022, which was quite the falloff for the team that earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC last season and reached the NFC championship game two years ago.
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The Lions entered Sunday’s game against the Bears having lost five of their past seven games, which dropped them well out of the NFC North race.
“It’s hard to believe that this is it,” Campbell said. “It’s going to be a hard pill to swallow watching these teams in the playoffs. But I think you’ve got to watch them. You’ve got to force yourself to do it because that’s a drive to want to be there, be a part of it.”
Morton has been an offensive assistant in the NFL for more than two decades, and has held stints with the Oakland and Las Vegas Raiders, New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets and Denver Broncos. He was also USC’s offensive coordinator for two seasons from 2009-2010. His job with the Lions marked just his second season as an offensive coordinator in the NFL. He spent one season as the Jets’ offensive coordinator in 2017.
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Though they missed the playoffs, the Lions offense wasn’t horrible under Morton’s watch — at least on paper. They averaged 373.2 yards per game, which was the fifth-highest output in the league, and trailed only the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams in passing yards per game. They averaged more than 28 points per game, too, which was tied for the fourth-highest output in the league. Campbell did take over play-calling duties from Morton in early November, however, and the team rolled to a 22-point win the following week.
With the Lions not turning those yards into nearly enough wins, Campbell and the Lions decided it was time to move on offensively.
It isn’t just current Michigan State players who have to live in fear of a Tom Izzo tongue lashing or withering glare.
On Monday night, Izzo unloaded on a former player who last suited up for the Spartans nearly two decades ago. Less than 24 hours later, that player was issuing a public apology.
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With just over six minutes left in Michigan State’s 80-51 rout of USC, Spartans forward Jaxon Kohler chased down Jerry Easter II from behind to prevent a transition layup, only to be assessed a foul on the play. Among the many Michigan State supporters who voiced their disagreement with the call was former center Paul Davis, who played for the Spartans from 2002-06 and averaged 17.5 points and 9.1 rebounds as a senior.
Video footage from the Fox Sports telecast captured Davis standing up and shouting something at referee Jeffrey Anderson from his courtside seat across the floor from the Michigan State bench. Anderson responded by immediately blowing his whistle, stopping play and pointing directly at Davis.
After Anderson approached Izzo and appeared to explain what happened, the Michigan State legend did not look pleased. Arms outstretched, Izzo shouted across the court in the direction of Davis, “What the f*** are you doing?” Moments later, when Davis was slow to leave his seat after someone came to escort him out, Izzo gestured at him once more and screamed, “Get outta here!”
“What he said, he should never say anywhere in the world,” Izzo told reporters. “That ticked me off. So just because it’s 25 — 20 years later, I’m going to have to call him tomorrow and tell him what I thought of it. And you know what he’ll say? I screwed up, coach. I’m sorry.”
Without prompting, Izzo later clarified, “It wasn’t something racial. It wasn’t something sexual.”
“It was just the wrong thing to say and I’ll leave it at that,” Izzo added.
Davis met with reporters on Tuesday and issued an apology to the officials, Izzo, the Michigan State program, the USC program, the fans and any parents with fans in attendance. He also said he had a “short,” but “amazing” conversation with Anderson in the morning.
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“I’m not up here to make any excuses. I’m up here to take accountability, to own it,” Davis said. It was a mistake that will never happen again. It was a mistake that’s not me, but unfortunately last night it was.
A McDonald’s All-American and Michigan Mr. Basketball in 2002, Davis arrived at Michigan State with considerable hype. He spent four years playing for the Spartans, helping guide them to a Final Four as a junior and to 22 wins as a senior.
During his postgame news conference, Izzo described Davis as one of his “favorite guys” and praised how often the former center comes back to support the Spartans.
“I need Paul Davis here,” Izzo concluded. “Paul Davis is a very important part of this program.”
In late October, it was abundantly apparent that the wheels were coming off the Las Vegas Raiders.
The team had entered its bye week 2-5 following a gutting 31-0 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, and word had begun to travel through NFL coaching and front-office circles that head coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly were at odds. Kelly’s scheme and play-calling were not fitting with veteran quarterback Geno Smith and many of the roster’s surrounding pieces. Philosophical differences were festering inside the coaching staff. The offensive line — coached by Carroll’s son Brennan — was a disarray of injuries and failing positional experiments. And eight weeks into the season, league sources with ties to both Pete Carroll and Kelly were predicting a speedy breakup after the season. If not sooner.
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It was a fascinating development to some in the NFL who were watching from afar and wondering how the Raiders were going to function with the added influence of new minority owner Tom Brady. After all, it was Kelly who pointed directly to Brady as being influential in his decision to join the Raiders, even when the union was seen as an oddity for those who knew Carroll. Not only did Kelly and Carroll lack a prior working relationship, they also historically leaned into different offensive styles and had very different personalities. They were suddenly melded together after the Raiders and Brady failed to land Ben Johnson as their next head coach.
Only two months in, it wasn’t working. And in the middle of it, the Raiders made a relatively innocuous move that ended up being a harbinger of a more fundamental problem: They signed Tyler Lockett, a 33-year old wideout who had been released by the Tennessee Titans, signaling a disjointed vision of what Las Vegas was trying to be.
It was all smiles and optimism in April when general manager John Spytek, quarterback Geno Smith and head coach Pete Carroll each charted a promising course for the 2025 season. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
(Ethan Miller via Getty Images)
On one hand, it was an addition that fit Carroll’s win-now mindset. On the other, it ran contrary to a wider vantage of general manager John Spytek, who had espoused beliefs of building, developing and actually playing the young talent that would grow into a long-term core.
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To the outside world, the Raiders were 2-5 and sinking with problems inside their coaching staff. And now a 74-year-old Carroll was being placated with the addition of another familiar aging face from his Seattle Seahawks era.
It begged the questions: What exactly was the Raiders’ mission? Who precisely was spearheading it?
As one longtime league executive familiar with Davis, Carroll and Brady framed it: The three fundamental people in the organization appeared to be on their own separate pages.
“Very different visions,” the source said. “I would imagine it’s going to be the same [Raiders] s***.”
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By Jan. 5, it was.
Carroll was fired. And those mixed visions delivered the Raiders to a familiar — and potentially deeper — phase of rebooting the franchise. One that may include the trade of defensive end Maxx Crosby and some other veterans before the offseason construction dust settles. And one that will almost certainly include drafting a quarterback with the No. 1 pick in April’s draft.
Tom Brady’s involvement with the Raiders vs. GM John Spytek’s day-to-day approach
What it won’t resolve is what some across the league believe is a flawed design: Brady’s operational involvement from afar, rather than as a daily presence inside the building alongside Spytek and Davis. Instead, the franchise is selling change as a “close collaboration” between Spytek and Brady when it comes to the Las Vegas football operations and finding the team’s next head coach. That still won’t draw Brady into the traditional boots-on-the-ground presence of most other high-ranking NFL decision makers.
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That statement from the Raiders does publicly draw Brady more into the team’s fold when it comes to bearing responsibility for decisions that come next. The Carroll failure? That won’t be pinned to Brady. Nor will the Kelly failure, despite Kelly himself pointing to Brady as the ownership element that drew him toward the Raiders. But the fate of this next hire will go on Brady’s résumé as an owner-executive. It will also amplify the accountability on Spytek and Brady. More than ever, they’re a tandem.
Yet only Spytek will be around every day, observing the rhythms of the building, overseeing the minute-to-minute grind, absorbing the granular details of what can be the difference between success and failure. That reality should force a recalibration of who is really being tapped to lead the Raiders to a revival. For a while, we’ve speculated that Brady would be that difference maker. The belief existed because Davis alluded to his addition as having that kind of gravity.
But there’s an argument to be made that Spytek will be the most important piece in all of this, especially once he begins working side-by-side with the head coach whom he and Brady have been charged with finding. Once that coach is in place, Spytek is the one who will have the most consistent contact with him. Not to mention working with Davis on a day-to-day basis. All while Brady’s bandwidth continues to be divided between his analyst job with Fox Sports and his family on the other side of the country in Miami.
Tom Brady’s involvement with the Raiders as a minority owner is a subject of fascination and scrutiny in the league. (L.E. Baskow/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
(Las Vegas Review-Journal via Getty Images)
Aside from the head coach, that will continue to make Spytek the public-facing executive in this rebuilding endeavor. As it did Monday when he held his season-ending news conference and addressed the firing of Carroll. His meeting with reporters produced some interesting moments, starting with Spytek putting the 3-14 season on his shoulders: “The accountability should start and stop with me. That needs to be said.”
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Asked if Brady would be more of an on-site fixture in the building, Spytek sidestepped the question in a way that suggested that Brady won’t. But what was most interesting was hearing how Spytek described their relationship.
“I think people sometimes misunderstand mine and Tom’s relationship,” Spytek said. “We played together one year at Michigan and then we didn’t talk for 20 years. Then he came to [play in] Tampa [where Spytek was a personnel executive]. … We see football similar. We don’t see it the same. We have plenty of discussions and disagreements and I’m not afraid to tell him that. I think that’s kind of why he likes me. But I do believe that we see things similar and we’ve both had a lot of success seeing it that way.”
“I talk to him a lot,” Spytek added. “He’s aware of what we’re doing. I don’t bore him with the mundane transactions or all that. But any big decision I’ve talked to him about [it]. Any vision, I’ve talked to him about [it]. He’s a great resource for me. He’s a great partner in this for me. I would be not doing a good job and be a fool if I didn’t talk to him. He’s been supportive of me. He can’t be here every day right now, but I promise you I talk to him a lot and he and I are on the same page.”
Intended or not, that sounds more like Brady is still being used as a resource rather than sitting at the controls every day. It’s hard to know until we see where this goes now that the team has moved on from Carroll. Prior to that decision, Spytek and his role was overshadowed by a Hall of Fame coach and a future Hall of Fame quarterback being portrayed as the franchise’s bellwethers. Now Spytek has his opportunity to take control of that narrative. And he’s going to have to do it by showing what he learned from the first-year failure that cascaded over much of the roster.
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Interestingly, he reiterated his previous notions of building and sustaining a team — which, again, seemed to be the goal when Brady and the Raiders targeted Ben Johnson before taking a left turn into Carroll’s “win now” mindset. And the next coach?
“We’re looking for someone to build this the right way and not think that we’ve got to produce 10 wins or whatever next [season],” Spytek said.
That would be something he learned in his first year as general manager — although it should be noted that Spytek wasn’t part of the Carroll decision. Spytek was hired only days before Carroll, who was ultimately the choice of Davis and Brady. Another thing Spytek appears to have learned from watching the Kelly situation go sideways? He wants the next head coach to name his staff.
“I want to turn that over to the coach,” Spytek said. “We’re going to have a lot of great conversations about who, why, where — there’s going to be a lot of great football conversations. But my belief has always been you give a lot of the responsibility to the head coach to hire the staff that he wants to hire.”
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By design, this all sounds different than what happened one year ago. It also sounds more conventional and realistic when it comes to where the Raiders are sitting. They’re holding the No. 1 pick in the draft for a reason. This isn’t going to be a snap-your-fingers worst-to-first scenario like the New England Patriots or Chicago Bears this season. Instead, it looks more like an offseason of roster-churning that will move a lot of veterans out and seek to add more young pieces to lay the foundation.
The first real test of that is how Spytek handles the Crosby situation after putting the star defensive end on injured reserve (to Crosby’s highly-publicized dismay) to end the season. That played a part in the Raiders securing the No. 1 overall pick and opened the door to aligning the next head coach with the quarterback of their choice. It also preserved Crosby’s trade value by not exposing him to late-season injury risk. If the Raiders move on from Crosby, it will be a showcase of what Spytek can engineer when it comes to a sizable trade — which further elevates his importance when it comes to parsing out his role versus Brady’s.
At one point Monday, Spytek described the Raiders’ rookies needing to show their biggest jump forward after Year 1, calling the next several months the most important offseason of their careers. And framed success through a very distinct belief.
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“Winning is fun,” Spytek said. “But it comes at a price. And it is required every day.”
The same is true for Spytek and Brady. One of them will be in the building paying that price every day. And that’s who people should start focusing on.
The NFL playoffs are here. As always, I will aim to give some betting advice and picks for this coming week that gain closing line value between now and kickoff.
But I also like to start with a bit of advice: Just because the game matters more to the teams and players, it does not matter more to your bankroll. In fact, I almost prefer to go the opposite direction and bet smaller in the playoffs. Now that we have reached the postseason, a lot of the uncertainty the regular-season market tries to price – and smart bettors are capable of exploiting – no longer exists. We have 17-game sample-size data to accurately forecast a sharp spread and total. Injury news has less of an unknown factor throughout the week. There are less lines to price for sportsbooks. This of course applies to main markets like spreads and totals, but also extends to all the derivative player props that can be bet. With more certainty within each game and fewer lines to price, the lines are much sharper.
As betting edges decrease, ideally so should bet size. Our betting “Super Bowl” can be a random Week 7 game. It does not literally need to be the actual Super Bowl. Here are two best bets for the NFL wild-card round:
Is it finally Josh Allen’s time in the playoffs?
(Timothy T Ludwig via Getty Images)
Buffalo Bills (-1.5, 52.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Josh Allen gets an AFC playoff run without Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow standing in his way. The difficulty is facing a Jaguars team playing lights out on both sides of the ball. The Jaguars have won eight straight games and secured the AFC South with a 13-4 record.
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The starting place for my handicap is always using NFL market ratings. For the playoffs, I am more reliant on post-Week 17 data than I am post-Week 18 information. Market ratings are created via an unbiased formula to compare closing lines across the league, while weighting more recent games heavier. While there are flaws in this approach worth being aware of, market ratings provide a great starting point to understand spread pricing for NFL games. The reason to avoid using Week 18 data is because so many key players around the league sat (including on the Bills) and therefore the data is muddied. It is important to save an updated copy of market ratings each week to go back and reference. Using this approach, Buffalo is 1.2 points better than Jacksonville. But we need to account for the Jags’ home-field advantage, which is typically worth 1.5 points, bringing us to basically a pick ’em spread.
The next handicapping factor is matchup specific. Market ratings allow us to price any two teams, but negate on-field intricacies that create diversions from blanket numbers. In this case, I think the matchup clearly favors Buffalo. The Bills strength is a strong dual-threat run game. The Bills play a lot of multi-TE sets, but have tight ends who are capable blockers and downfield pass catchers, creating another dual-threat look. They can generate explosive plays on long runs and play-action passes, and have a very smart QB in Josh Allen to identify weaknesses.
On the other end, Jacksonville has been very impressive in the pass game. Since acquiring WR Jakobi Meyers via midseason trade and getting TE Brenton Strange back from injured reserve, the Jags’ offense has taken off. The Jaguars have averaged 32.9 points per game since Meyers’ arrival, up from 20.4 earlier in the season. In the final six games, Trevor Lawrence threw for nearly 1,600 yards with a 15:1 TD-to-INT ratio. He was playing at an MVP level. Passing against Buffalo is where things get difficult for Jacksonville. The Bills allow the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL at 156.9 yards per game. In 10 of the Bills’ 17 games, opposing net passing yards were fewer than 100. In nine of the games, the opposing QB rating was below 72.
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Consistent disruptions, tight coverage and pressure from a strong Bills secondary is where Jacksonville really loses its recent edge.
Therefore, I am looking to back the Buffalo Bills here — and the early market signals agree. Right now the consensus line is -1.5 (-110), but the ML at -120 represents the best value bet at MGM, since the move onto and off the 1 is about 6-7 cents in NFL betting, and therefore the ML should be around -123. This opened at -115-ish and has seen slight action on the Bills side. I am also reminded of a recent matchup against New England where the Bills took clear gameday late sharp action, so I think it may come here as well.
Bet: Buffalo Bills ML (-120), up to 1 unit
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 45)
Wondering where the sharp action has been thus far in early playoff betting? Look no further than this matchup. There have been two very clear moves here: toward the Eagles and toward the under. The Eagles opened at 2.5- or 3-point favorites as a consensus price that is now out to Eagles -4.5. Considering the move off the 3, this is a humongous value shift.
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The total is down from 46.5 to 45, with 44.5s emerging in the market, too. I am not going to steam chase and bet the Eagles here, after missing the value. It’s a basic principle for me to just stay away at that point. However, the total dropping from 46.5 to 45 is a move I will process as a data point, showing the sharp side is the under.
For NFL totals, understanding key numbers is critical. The opening line through the 46 is not too significant, as 46 is the 17th-most common NFL scoring outcome over the last four seasons. Forty-five is also the 15th-most common scoring outcome, however 44 and 43 are both top five. Seeing signals that this could get down to 44.5 means I definitely want to get in before any 44’s shows up.
The reason to bet the under here is because these are two run-heavy offenses. Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley are two household names, and both are offensive focal points. Since the 49ers lost key players on defense like Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, teams have been exploiting their front seven and focusing on the rushing attack, while the 49ers have been putting together slow and methodical drives on offense. The Eagles also have the sixth-best defense based on DVOA and allow the fifth-fewest points.
