Category: Sport

Week 16 — the fantasy football playoffs. It’s win-or-go-home season. Some rookies get smash spots, others run headfirst into brick walls. Here’s this week’s Rookie Report with five prove-it matchups, and a read on what to expect in your playoff matchup.

Ashton Jeanty vs. Texans

This is volume versus reality. Over the last month, Jeanty has owned the Raiders backfield with a 93% rush share, 89% of the rushing touches, 79% of the snaps and 26 targets, yet he’s 30th in half-PPR points per game and sits RB19 in half-PPR on the season. That gap is the whole story.

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Houston’s defense is extremely difficult against the run. They have faced top backs all year and only one runner has cleared 100 yards against them: James Cook, who is second in the NFL in rushing. Look at the rest of the names and results: Kyren Williams, 66 yards; Bucky Irving, 71 and Travis Etienne, 56. Derrick Henry had 33. San Francisco did not get there, Denver did not either and Jacksonville did not in the rematch. This Houston front wins early, rallies late and keeps rush lanes tight.

Add in the Raiders quarterback mess and eight straight losses with a trip to Houston on tap and the game-script risk spikes. If Las Vegas falls behind, Jeanty is not proficient enough as a receiver to offset a quiet day on the ground. You are betting on raw touches, not scoring position.

Start or sit? Sit if you have a true pivot point. If you are stuck, treat him like a low-end RB3 who needs receptions to thrive.

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Week 16 Rookie Outlook: Elite usage meets elite defense. I am not forcing Jeanty into lineups.

Harold Fannin Jr. vs. Bills

Harold Fannin Jr. leads the Browns in targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns and yards per game while sharing snaps with David Njoku. Over the past month, he owns a 28.5% target share and ranks seventh in targets per route run. Since 2000, only three tight ends have more targets through their first 14 career games than Fannin: Brock Bowers, Jeremy Shockey and Evan Engram. Fannin sits fifth among TEs at 667 receiving yards this season.

Buffalo is a brutal draw for tight ends. Per True Media, the Bills allow the fewest receiving yards per game to the position at 8.8. The unit is second-best in opponent passing yards allowed at 169.5 per game. The Bills have kept top tight ends quiet all season, including holding Travis Kelce to 66 yards and other tight ends like Kyle Pitts Sr., Mark Andrews and Hunter Henry to minimal production.

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Add in an inexperienced quarterback in Shedeur Sanders, a shaky offensive line and some disjointedness with the offensive game plan and the path narrows. I don’t think this is a Fannin week. If anything, the rookie you want from this matchup is RB Quinshon Judkins because Buffalo can be had on the ground.

Week 16 Rookie Outlook: If you have a legitimate pivot, go there. If you are stuck, treat Fannin like a volume-dependent TE2 and hope the red zone shows up.

Tyler Warren vs. 49ers

This Colts season slid off the rails. Four straight losses since the Germany win and now San Francisco comes to town on Monday night with Philip Rivers making his second start of the comeback. He is 44 years old, and you can see it in the way the ball travels. He can move the offense in spurts, he can manage a drive but the downfield juice is limited and that matters for a tight end living on timing windows and seams.

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Warren is still involved. He led the room with six targets last week and caught three passes for 19 yards. The bigger trend is what worries me. Over his last seven games, he has one touchdown, only one game over 70 yards and he has been under 50 yards for the last month. This was trending the wrong way before Rivers and the ceiling did not show up in Rivers’ first start.

The matchup is not a pushover either. The 49ers are stout against the run and sit mid-pack in opponent rushing yards per game, but they do give up some passing explosives. If Rivers was going to get there, this spot is friendlier than Seattle, yet I still do not trust it. I do not want to start any Colts outside of Jonathan Taylor. This is less about Warren and more about a quarterback who will live under the sticks and a passing plan that feels out of sync.

Week 16 Rookie Outlook: Treat Warren like low-end TE1. He should still get volume, but the quality of the looks is the problem.

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Tetairoa McMillan vs. Buccaneers

Two 7-7 teams, two meetings in three weeks. This is the kind of stage where Tetairoa McMillan can tilt the division race against a leaky Tampa Bay secondary. Tampa Bay has allowed 247 passing yards per game on the season, third most. Over the last month, that has climbed to 260 per game, fifth-most in the NFL. In that span, it has given up 21 explosive pass plays and a league worst 43.2% of opponent attempts have turned into first downs or touchdowns. Its PPR receiving points allowed to wideouts over the last month sits at 63, which ranks 31st.

McMillan, who missed practice on Wednesday with foot and ankle injuries, leads Carolina in receiving but the recent box scores have been light. He has not topped two catches in three straight games, he has used touchdowns to keep the floor intact and he dropped another score in Week 15. None of that lives in a vacuum. He needs Bryce Young to play better. The ceiling is real with Bryce because he has four 3-TD games this season and he can extend plays, but the volume has been thin. Over the last eight games, he has been asked to throw more than 25 times only twice, which has dragged this passing attack into too many 100-yard days.

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The positive note for McMillan is that the usage is still his. He is the first read most often and he owns the money targets. Jalen Coker has earned some work but McMillan’s role remains secure.

Carolina does not throw the ball a lot. You are hoping Young and McMillan connect early and the efficiency is there, then you are relying on a shot play or a red-zone target to land.

Week 16 Rookie Outlook: McMillan is a WR2 with touchdown upside and WR1 spike potential. But with the potential low volume, if you have a real pivot, go there. If you are stuck, treat him like a high-variance WR2 who can flip a matchup with one play.

Emeka Egbuka vs. Panthers

The Bucs’ WR room is crowded again, and it shows. Mike Evans returned and looked like the best receiver on the field. He made tough contested grabs, extended for throws and battled through injury. He led with 12 targets and the eye test said the offense still runs through him. Egbuka finished second in targets and turned in four for 64 with downfield work while Chris Godwin snagged the touchdown. With Bucky Irving back, the touches get spread around even more.

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Carolina is not a shutdown unit but it is not a layup either. It allows 225 net passing yards per game, 11th most. Over the last month, it ranks 12th in PPR points allowed to wideouts at 53. It is among the best at limiting explosive passes in that span, which pushes this game toward timing throws, third downs and red-zone execution, rather than free chunk gains.

Baker Mayfield has to play better. He was better against Atlanta but there were still balls sailing over heads and missed windows. In the last five games, he has topped 60% completions only once and he has thrown multiple touchdowns only once, also against Atlanta. Egbuka is talented and can separate; he just needs more precision and more red-zone intent from Mayfield to unlock a ceiling with Evans and Godwin now healthy.

Week 16 Rookie Outlook: Egbuka is a WR3/flex with touchdown upside. If you have a solid pivot, make the move. If you are stuck, treat him like a matchup-driven flex who needs a red-zone look.

The New York Knicks have decided against adding an NBA Cup championship banner to the rafters at Madison Square Garden, according to multiple reports.

The Knicks beat the San Antonio Spurs 124-113 in the NBA Cup final on Tuesday night in Las Vegas. The win was the franchise’s first championship victory since winning its second NBA title in 1973.

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But despite the achievement, it will not be recognized above the playing surface at MSG. No banner will hang as the team is “focused on the bigger picture,” a source told the New York Post’s Stefon Bondy.

The “bigger picture” is a third NBA title after losing in the Finals in 1994 to the Houston Rockets and 1999 to the Spurs.

There are plans to celebrate the NBA Cup title, however, as the Knicks will hold a ceremony prior to their game on Friday against the Philadelphia 76ers.

The Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Lakers, the first two NBA Cup winners, celebrated their victories with banners inside their home arenas.

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MSG already features numerous banners celebrating the accomplishments of previous Knicks and New York Rangers teams, along with retired numbers of former players. There are also banners for musical acts Billy Joel, Harry Styles and Phish.

When asked earlier this week, Knicks players had mixed opinions on whether a banner should be raised.

“Yeah, why not? Obviously it’s a Cup, it’s a title, it’s something that you want to win,” said forward Josh Hart. “So yeah, hang a banner. Obviously, there’s different standards to those, Cups and Finals. But whenever you want to go out there and compete and win a title, that’s what you want to do and celebrate that.”

“Nah, I’m OK. I think you’re searching for something even more than that,” said guard Mikal Bridges.

“Hang something, appreciate us for something,” said center Mitchell Robinson.

Carlos Alcaraz has parted ways with longtime coach Juan Carlos Ferrero after seven years, the men’s No. 1 ranked player announced on Wednesday.

“After more than seven years together, Juanki and I have decided to bring our chapter together as coach and player to an end,” Alcaraz wrote in a statement on X. “Thank you for turning childhood dreams into reality. We started this journey when I was barely a kid, and throughout all this time you’ve accompanied me on an incredible journey, on and off the court. And I’ve enjoyed every step of it so much with you.”

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During his time working with Ferrero, the 22-year-old Alcaraz won six Grand Slam titles and 24 tour events. In 2025, he won a career-high 71 matches and claimed eight tournament victories. He also became the youngest player ever to become No. 1 in the ATP rankings in 2022 at age 19.

Ferrero also put out a statement saying, “Today is a difficult day. One of those when it’s hard to find the right words. Saying goodbye is never easy, especially when there are so many shared experiences behind it. We have worked hard, grown together, and shared unforgettable moments.”

Neither gave a reason for the split.

Alcaraz did not say if he would hire a replacement for Ferrero. Last December he hired Samuel López to work alongside Ferrero, who had worked with Alcaraz since he was 15 years old.

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Earlier this month Ferrero and López won Coach of the Year at the ATP Awards, as voted on by fellow coaches. Ferrero had previously won in 2022.

“We have been an incredible team despite the difficulties, and I am sure you will continue to achieve great success,” Ferrero said. “I wish I could have continued. I am convinced that good memories and good people always find a way to cross paths again. Thank you from the bottom of my heart.”

Football analyst Matt Harmon breaks down the Week 16 outlooks for the somewhat random players who went off in the first round of the fantasy playoffs.

Kyle Pitts Sr. (@ Arizona Cardinals)

The Week 15 version of Kyle Pitts Sr. was the stuff of legends. It wasn’t just, by far, the best game of Pitts’ career; it was one of the best performances we’ve ever seen from a tight end in recent memory.

One narrative that I want to push back on is that this was some random eruption for Pitts; that’s just not true. In fact, Pitts had been building to this moment over the previous three weeks. From Weeks 12 to 14, Pitts led all tight ends with a 29.1% target share. He trailed only the great Trey McBride in targets and receiving yards; he just hadn’t scored any touchdowns. He did so in bulk order in Week 15.

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The question now is about stability. Much of that comes down to the availability of Drake London. It’s no coincidence that Pitts’ ascension has directly overlapped with London’s absence while dealing with a PCL injury. London returned to practice on Wednesday, but head coach Raheem Morris stressed it’s no guarantee London plays in Week 16.

Pitts has taken 44% of his snaps on passing plays from the slot in these last four games and has been targeted on 28% of his routes. He’s averaging 6.9 yards after the catch per reception, up from 3.8 in Weeks 1 to 11. There is a lot of overlap in the ways you want to optimally deploy Pitts and London as big slot options who can rumble after the catch. That’s why it’s been difficult — beyond the fact that Pitts hasn’t always been healthy the last few seasons — for both to go off at once.

If London is out again in Week 16, Pitts is a top-five-ranked tight end. Should London return, I doubt he’ll be 100% off the PCL injury, so that is enough for Pitts to remain a fantasy starter. I just won’t expect anything close to the nuclear-level production we got in Week 15.

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Kenneth Gainwell (@ Detroit Lions)

Much like Pitts above, Kenneth Gainwell has been trending towards a big game like the one he had in Week 15 for quite some time. Gainwell owns a massive role in the Steelers’ passing offense.

It’s been clear for some time that Gainwell is clearly in Aaron Rodgers’ circle of trust. He values his presence on the field and is quick to look for him in checkdown situations. He confirmed this with some comments after Week 15:

Gainwell is one of three running backs to lead his team in catches this season, the others being Christian McCaffrey and De’Von Achane. Not bad company for Gainwell. In an upcoming matchup with a Lions team that will push Pittsburgh to increase its pass attempts, Gianwell is once again in a spot where he could catch a ton of passes. This is a situation I wouldn’t mind chasing the Week 15 results one bit.

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Jacory Croskey-Merritt (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

With Chris Rodriguez Jr. sidelined, Bill was back in our lives. The seventh-round rookie who was the talk of August hype circles handled 18 carries in Week 15, the most he’s seen this season. He was able to run all over a Giants rush defense that’s been a problem all year. The Commanders won a game for the first time since Week 5, so game script was also in Bill’s favor.

Bill’s ability to do it again will all come down to the availability of Rodriguez. Even if, for whatever reason, the team elevates the rookie ahead of Rodriquez, who has been the lead back for weeks now, a three-way split between these two and Jeremy McNichols is too problematic. Not to mention, while the Eagles’ run defense — who the Commanders will see in Week 16 — has had its gaffs, they are much better than the Giants’ front.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (vs. Minnesota Vikings)

Tracy was the Giants’ clear lead back coming out of the Week 14 bye and ended up being the fifth-best back in fantasy last week. He led the team with 18 touches and played on 76% of the snaps. However, he did lose goal-line work to Devin Singletary in resounding fashion.

That didn’t matter in Week 15 because Tracy was able to hit big plays against a Commanders defense that’s been hapless all season. The Vikings are a bit more of a tricky matchup to figure out.

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Minnesota allows teams to move the ball down the field in the run game, as it ranks 31st in rushing success rate allowed to running backs since Week 10. Its 4.0 yards per carry allowed is rather middle of the pack and it generally doesn’t give up long gashes. With all that in mind, if Tracy still doesn’t have goal-line work locked down, he’s more of a solid RB2 than an RB1, despite his big Week 15 showing.

Troy Franklin (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

Troy Franklin has had his moments this season, but has been trending down over the last month with rookie Pat Bryant emerging, particularly since the Broncos came back from their Week 12 bye. With Bryant on the shelf last week, Franklin turned in his best game in quite some time, catching all six targets for 85 yards and a score.

Franklin actually ran fewer routes last week than Lil’ Jordan Humphrey, who was signed off the Giants’ practice squad in November. The key for Franklin was getting back into the slot. Bryant had taken over the slot role coming out of the bye because he gives them more size and physicality at that spot. Franklin can play outside but has more ability to rip big plays as a speed slot.

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The Broncos already face a tough matchup in Week 16 against a sneaky good Jaguars defense. If Bryant is back in the mix for Denver, I’d find Franklin quite difficult to trust.

DJ Moore (vs. Green Bay Packers)

DJ Moore saw no noticeable bump in Week 14 when Rome Odunze missed a game with a foot injury he’s been playing through this season. The story was quite different in Week 15, when Odunze was ruled out at the last minute and Moore went on to catch two touchdowns.

Against the Browns, Moore set a season-high with 2.3 yards per route, three end-zone targets and a 37.9% air yard share. However, he was only targeted on 16.7% of his routes, which was his seventh-highest mark of the season. Credit to Moore for converting on his opportunities, especially on the insane Caleb Williams across-the-field throw into the end zone. We just didn’t see a noticeable bump in his involvement.

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It’s felt like a struggle for Moore to get consistently involved in this attack all season. He just doesn’t really fit the offense and has lost opportunities to younger developing guys like Odunze and Luther Burden III in the receiver room. With both of those guys listed as DNP in early practices this week, Moore could see a bump in his workload by default. Even in that scenario, he’d still be just a volatile WR3 in a tough matchup with the Packers in Week 16.

Colby Parkinson (@ Seattle Seahawks)

The Rams’ move to more 13 personnel this season has been a significant talking point in discussions about the team’s success. For good reason! It’s been both interesting and effective.

One of the big winners from the shift to that alignment has been Colby Parkinson. Ever since Tyler Higbee was placed on IR after Week 11, Parkinson has been a mainstay for the Rams because he can both block and catch passes from multiple alignments. Since Week 12, Parkinson leads all tight ends and wide receivers on the team with a 72% snap rate, is third in route participation and has caught four touchdowns.

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With Davante Adams most likely out in Week 16 and Higbee not yet ready to come off IR, Parkinson is once again in line for a big opportunity. Given all the variables, he’s going to be a top-10-ranked player at the position for me.

However, it’s worth noting that Seattle is one of the few teams that have been able to keep the Rams from printing efficient plays out of 13 personnel.

Nevertheless, Parkinson, who did score against this team back in Week 11, is in a solid spot. The Seahawks rank third, first and first in 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers — but 18th against tight ends. We sometimes see this with great defenses, where they are content to cede production to this position, relative to their strengths elsewhere.

Miami Dolphins All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill may be on injured reserve and done for the season, but that won’t stop him from chiming in on social media.

The Dolphins benched quarterback Tua Tagovailoa on Wednesday morning, and not long after the news broke, Hill took to X and posted a cryptic tweet with a peace sign emoji and a gif of two kids, where one throws up a peace sign then vanishes.

Was it meant to be a jab at Tagovailoa getting benched or a sign that Hill is done in Miami? Or was it meant to be a mystery to further confuse fans?

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Hill is known for posting cryptic tweets, even seemingly teasing an early retirement in a tweet he posted last December.

“Love what you do cause it will soon end [heart emoji],” Hill posted on X in December 2024.

Trade rumors surrounding Hill were still circulating earlier this season, before he suffered the knee injury that sidelined him. Hill was traded to Kansas City after the 2021 season for a fresh start in South Florida and immediately signed a four-year, $120 million deal with $72 million guaranteed.

Following a contract restructure in summer 2024, Hill is signed with Miami through next season. Knowing this, his cryptic tweet Wednesday might suggest his time with the Dolphins is nearly over. However, it could be Hill attempting to stir up old trade rumors and reignite interest.

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At the very least, it creates social media buzz that clearly entertains Hill. Tagovailoa’s benching wasn’t surprising, given the team’s disappointing season. With head coach Mike McDaniel on the hot seat, some wonder why the benching didn’t happen sooner.

The Dolphins were officially eliminated from playoff contention after Monday night’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Quinn Ewers will replace Tagovailoa and start in Week 16 against the Cincinnati Bengals in Miami.

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Kevin O’Connor breaks down the Knicks’ dominant NBA Cup final win against the Spurs and what it means for the team’s NBA title chances. He reacts to Victor Wembanyama’s tough night and the standout performances from Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby and Dylan Harper.

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Kelly Iko joins to talk Giannis Antetokounmpo’s possible trade destinations, and shares why both the Rockets and Spurs are unlikely to mortgage their future for the superstar. Then, Raheem Palmer dishes on the Clippers’ openness to dealing James Harden & Kawhi Leonard and why the Rockets may be the Thunder’s top challenger for the NBA title.

(0:32) Knicks win 2025 NBA Cup

(14:49) What’s next for Ja Morant & the Grizzlies?

(21:53) Giannis trade destinations

(28:30) Will Nuggets make a trade?

(37:36) Clippers open to trading James Harden & Kawhi Leonard

(43:20) Are Lakers & Warriors too old to contend?

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(51:18) Which teams can challenge OKC?

(56:23) Should there be an NBA team in Vegas?

🖥️ Watch this full episode on YouTube

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In a vacuum, perhaps Ben Johnson’s statement was believable.

The Chicago Bears head coach sought this week to downplay the season-ending ACL tear to edge rusher Micah Parsons ahead of the Packers’ Saturday night visit to Chicago.

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“Just because one player goes down, that doesn’t mean that this is going to change a whole lot for them,” Johnson said Wednesday. “I know everyone wants to make it about the one particular player, but this is a very good defense, regardless of who’s on the field for them.”

No one is arguing Parsons was the only talent on a Packers defense ranked eighth in scoring and sixth overall. But for 14 prior games this season, coaches and players across the league have indeed insisted that Parsons was a game-changer and a force on his own.

“You’ve just got to be hyper-aware of where he is,” Cleveland Browns offensive coordinator Tommy Rees said before the Browns’ Week 3 game against Green Bay.

“All hands on deck,” Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott said in Week 4.

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Arizona Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon warned “you better have a plan for” Parsons, while Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin warned “you better stay out of one-dimensional circumstances.” One need look no further than Parsons’ $46 million-a-year contract to confirm the two-time All-Pro’s ability.

“Most certainly,” Tomlin said, “I think his paycheck indicates so.”

[Get more Packers news: Green Bay team feed]

Even Johnson, two weeks ago, discussed the challenge of keeping tabs on Parsons.

“There’s a number of guys that you play in the league that you have to be aware of on every snap,” added his offensive coordinator,  Declan Doyle, on Dec. 4. “… The biggest thing is that you don’t overlook anything. You don’t ever overlook where he is on the field.”

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Thus despite the expected party line that the Bears can’t overlook the Packers in their post-Parsons section of the season, Green Bay’s opponents will indeed encounter a different calculus the rest of the year.

As the Packers look to steal the NFC North lead from the Bears this week, their arsenal is depleted.

“It’s not going to be one individual that can [fill his shoes],” Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said. “They’re going to have to feed off one another and rally around each other and it’s going to be opportunities for other guys to get in there …

“It’s going to be tough.”

Parsons impacted Packers quickly — and opponents took notice in game planning

The Packers did not acquire Parsons from the Dallas Cowboys until 10 days before their season kicked off. Some players would have struggled to keep pace with a hyper-accelerated onboarding.

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Parsons did not.

In 14 games with his new team, the 2021 first-round draft pick led the league with 83 quarterback pressures, per Next Gen Stats, and ranked second only to the Denver Broncos’ Nik Bonitto with 34 quick pressures (Bonitto has 36).

Parsons’ 12.5 sacks rank third in the league, while his 20.5% pressure rate led all edge rushers entering the last clip. He pressured quarterbacks at that rate despite, per Next Gen Stats, fighting through double teams at the third-highest rate (21.6%) among edge players.

Add in Parsons’ versatility to rush from the right and left edge, the interior defensive line or as an off-ball linebacker, and opponents each week required Parsons-specific game plans to thwart him.

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“Our whole game plan was centered around him,” one assistant, whose team faced Parsons this year, told Yahoo Sports. The assistant spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to disclose their team’s game plan.

“We made sure we ran it a ton to stay in third and manageable and to wear him down defending the run. Now teams might try to air it out more and take their shots downfield. We were mostly going to do short quick passes and run.”

An assistant from another team who faced Parsons agreed: They would have changed their game plan if the Packers couldn’t rely on Parsons to get pressure with just four defensive linemen.

“We had a plan for him on most third downs,” the assistant told Yahoo Sports on condition of anonymity. “It’s going to stress their secondary. They’re going to have to hold up instead of counting on the pressure getting there.

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“It will impact it a ton.”

The uphill battle Packers now face

Rashan Gary struggled to collect himself in the postgame locker room Sunday when asked about his fellow defensive lineman’s injury. Despair hit as Green Bay recognized its margin for error on any playoff run was slipping away quickly.

Starters in tight end Tucker Kraft, center Elgton Jenkins and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt were already lost for the season. The Packers had found some ways to retool — but Parsons felt like an anchor they could not afford to lose.

For 13 seconds after Gary fielded a question, he was wordless. He released three full-body sighs, his shoulders lowering and his head shaking.

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“It hurt to see,” said Gary, who was enjoying a strong season as opponents shifted their attention to double- and triple-teaming Parsons. “Will be missed on this. You all know his impact, but that gives us guys up front more opportunities when they come to rush, cause havoc.

“With his absence, we have to step up up front.”

The Packers’ defense has ranked 10th in pass-rush win rate (40%), per ESPN’s metrics, this season in large part because of Parsons not only performing but also elevating those around him.

Entering Sunday’s game in which they lost him, the Packers’ sack rate with Parsons on the field (7.5%) nearly doubled their rate with him off the field (4.2%), per Next Gen Stats. The unit was generating pressure within 2.69 seconds on average with Parsons on the field; that extended to 3.05 seconds without him.

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Tight ends and running backs were called into action in order to chip Parsons. Receivers were asked to reach their spots quickly in anticipation that longer-developing routes may not be viable.

Parsons commanded significant attention in meetings and in live-game defensive diagnoses.

So while the Packers’ chance at making the playoffs remains at 89%, per Next Gen Stats, their chance at advancing through the postseason has taken a hit.

That will resonate first on Saturday night, as the Packers travel to face the Bears 13 days after they triumphed over them 28-21 at Lambeau Field.

And it will continue to resonate in the coming weeks when teams need to worry less about obvious passing situations and third downs, feeling more confident in their ability to run a straightforward game plan than Packers opponents did during the first 14 games of their season.

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The Packers’ defensive unraveling against the Broncos likely won’t become standard: Allowing a season-worst four passing touchdowns and 134.7 passer rating to Bo Nix almost certainly reflected the psychological letdown of Parsons’ noncontact injury as much as it did the talent deficit.

Green Bay has time to compose itself now, Gary’s midweek interview already carrying a heightened sense of resolve as the team moves forward.

But the Packers will still need to recognize that their gameplan for Chicago on Saturday must change. Parsons accounted for eight of the 16 pressures on Bears quarterback Caleb Williams two weeks ago. Others must fill in if the Packers want to maintain their image as a playoff contender.

“It’s a big loss for our defense, for our team, but the next guy [has] got to step up so it is what it is,” Packers safety Xavier McKinney said. “I mean, the season ain’t over. We still got work to do.”

When you think about it, depending on which region of NFL fandom you reside in, it’s awkward talking about football this time of year. Statistically speaking, most of your friends are out of the fantasy football playoffs. They probably got “Kyle Pitts’d” or “Trevor Lawrence’d” last week, making fantasy a subject to avoid for a bit.

Meanwhile, you either started or somehow missed the spike weeks that tilted most of Week 15. You got to ride into work with a smile on your face, ready to pull up highlights featuring guys on your roster and discuss start/sits for the semi-finals. Everyone else is upset, and you pull up like the “Get in There and Make It About You” meme. But, hey, heavy is the (soon-to-be-worn) crown, right?

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Sunday featured more chaos than usual, with season-ending injuries and playoff-eliminating losses that have us questioning the teams on the outside of the postseason picture. At the same time, even some of the squads that played well deserve a second look to see if they should be in our circle of trust for Week 16.

Now, to be fair, everybody figured the 49ers would be productive on offense coming out of their bye. They were 12.5-point home favorites. The core of the passing game was healthy (minus a late-week back injury for Christian McCaffrey). Plus, Tennessee had allowed four straight top-12 finishes to the QBs it faced leading up to Sunday. And that list of passers featured Davis Mills and Shedeur Sanders. In any case, Brock Purdy didn’t have me completely sold until about the end of the third quarter.

Purdy’s high kick to go with the TD throw was what pushed me over the edge. I’m kidding, but movements like that — bringing his full weight down on the same foot that sidelined him for over half the season — isn’t nothing. Neither was his return to high-end levels of efficiency as a passer.

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• Success Rate: 62.5% (Week 15), 49.2% (Weeks 4-13)

• EPA per Dropback: 0.53, 0.02

• Adj. Yards per Attempt: 11.8, 6.3

If you’re about to mention the Shanahan scheme as the reason for the improvement, let me stop you right there. Purdy was running play action (30.8%) and getting similar yards after the catch (5.5) as he had over his last four games dealing with the toe injury. At the same time, PFF charted Purdy having the most dropbacks with him moving out of the pocket (13) of the year. Accordingly, it was the first time Purdy connected with one of his pass-catchers for a score on one of those designs since Week 1. But, of course, touchdowns are tough to predict. However, based on his movement in and out of the protection, there is a more fantasy-relevant part of Purdy’s game that we can anticipate seeing moving forward.

• Scramble Rate: 13.5% (Week 15), 2.3% (Weeks 4-13)

• EPA On Scrambles: 1.6, 0.2

• Rushing First Downs per Game: 4, 1.8

I’d never heard of basilisks being called “Jesus Christ Lizards,” nor had I ever seen them compared to mobile QBs. But that’s why George Kittle is one of a kind. Anyway, Purdy’s sneaky rushing ability was on full display. And the point of emphasis shouldn’t be on the results. I mean, we’ll take the extra 4.4 points. But more importantly, Purdy evading pressure, picking up yards on the ground and extending drives has been his calling card since taking over as the starter.

Bottom line: With both aspects of his production back for Purdy, he’s got my full trust as a QB1 to close out the fantasy playoffs. Neither matchup will invite the same upside as the Titans (at Colts, vs. Bears). However, with the passing and running game coming together for the offense, we should consider Purdy a QB1 for the rest of the season.

Sean Payton Knew It All Along

Progress isn’t linear. I mentioned the same phrase when talking about the Broncos during the recap show on Sunday night. More reps don’t necessarily mean more knowledge. That’s especially true for QB play as teams try to adjust the post-snap picture each play every game. And I think most folks would be amenable to the idea that young signal-callers need more than just time on the field (see McCarthy, J.J.). However, big performances become tougher to square.

First off, salute to Bo Nix for stepping up. Green Bay came to Empower Field with just one enemy passer to cross 200 passing yards on it since October. Its defensive front was top 12 in pressure and sack rate over the last month. But Denver’s offense nixed (I mean, the pun was right there) any concerns about its aerial attack as it cemented its bid for the playoffs. And surprisingly enough, the box score doesn’t tell the entire story.

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• EPA per Dropback (vs Zone Coverage): 0.53 (Week 15), 0.02 (Weeks 1-14)

• Passing Success Rate: 59.3%, 41.6%

• Completion Percentage: 74.1%, 63.3%

The Packers have run a mix of zone and man defensive coverages throughout the year, with DC Jeff Hafley primarily relying on a four-man pass rush. Coincidentally, having more than five defenders drop back in coverage was Nix’s kryptonite. Of the 34 QBs with more than 200 dropbacks, Denver’s QB1 had the third-most interceptions and the ninth-lowest completion percentage once a team moved away from man concepts. But the Packers caught Nix on the right day. He hit season highs throwing the ball, independent of what he saw after the snap. The other surprising part was his aggression.

Now, it’s not to say Nix can’t or won’t throw deep. But things tend to go awry when he strays from the short area of the field. Nix has had seven games this year with a passing aDOT over eight air yards. Of those seven, his passing success rate was over 50.0% in just two: against Dallas, and last Sunday. Only three of those games featured a positive EPA per dropback (against the Chiefs, Cowboys and Packers). It was like there was another player in a No. 10 jersey on Sunday afternoon.

Bottom line: Nix’s outlier peripherals are encouraging, but his output could go either way in Week 16. The Jaguars play a similar mix of coverages in their secondary and can get after the passer. Plus, outside of Courtland Sutton, there isn’t a pass-catcher we’re looking to roster this late in the year. With it being the first time we’ve seen this type of result from Nix, the volatility is too much to trust heading into Week 16.

Sonic Needs to Knuckle Up

Unsurprisingly, I try to apply a “process over results” approach to most things I do. Whether it’s my love for playing poker or being an engineer, being methodical and using as much information as I’ve got at the time to make decisions is something I can lean on even when the outcomes don’t break my way. But there wasn’t much thought when it came to starting Jahmyr Gibbs on Sunday.

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Gibbs’ three-TD game the week before aside, the Lions’ RB1 had taken on 19 or more touches in the four games beforehand. Just from passing alone, Detroit had a top-five offense across most metrics. And for Week 15 specifically, Gibbs was playing in the contest with the highest total. Before kickoff, he was right where fantasy managers would want their RB1, at the intersection of talent and (projected) opportunity.

But then the game started.

To be clear, the fact that David Montgomery is on the field getting carries isn’t an issue. He’s a good rusher (11th amongst all RBs in yards after contact per attempt — min 100 carries), deserves touches and has been effective in a reduced role this season. It’s where and in what context the touches come.

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A lone carry at the start of the second quarter shouldn’t bother anybody. But Montgomery taking short-yardage totes (the above play came on a 3rd and 1) caught my eye. He also took the only goal-line attempt and had the team’s sole rushing TD on the day. The only thing that could make this worse would be if Montgomery were challenging Gibbs on base downs.

• (Early-Down) Rushing Success Rate (since their bye): 47.2% (Montgomery), 42.2% (Gibbs)

• Yards after Contact per Rush: 3.2, 3.9

To be fair, Gibbs isn’t the only perpetrator in this scenario. Beat writers have been speculating about the need for a change along the offensive line since November. There hasn’t been the same push up front as in years past. They went from league average in run block win rate last season to a bottom-10 unit now. Luckily, Gibbs has been able to cover up some of the issues. His explosive plays have counted for 55.1% of his scrimmage yards over his last seven games. And that’s part of why I’m willing to look past this dud performance.

Bottom line: Gibbs has some (not all!) of my trust for Week 16. Yes, Montgomery has been up to a +30% rushing share over the last two games. But without Sam LaPorta, Gibbs has averaged 7.0 targets per game (most among all RBs). In addition, the Lions get to host a Steelers’ run defense that has given up a top-12 finish to an opposing RB in four of their last seven games. And since Detroit is in a must-win situation, it’ll need everything out of its RB1 to keep the team’s playoff hopes alive.

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There’s A New Chief in Kansas City

I have re-watched the end of the Chiefs-Chargers game no less than twenty times.

No, as a Bengals fan, I was not laughing at their downfall. People in glass houses, you know? But I genuinely couldn’t believe it. Sure, their lack of a potent run game and confusing target distribution were constant gripes. But the thought sitting in the back of everyone’s minds was that HC Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes would figure it out. They always have. Now, Gardner Minshew is back in our lives, putting some fantasy managers into something of a tough spot for Week 16. However, I can squint and see things working out.

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• (Weeks 1-12, 2024) Play-Action Rate (on Early Downs): 30.9%, 20th (out of 31 QBs – min. 200 dropbacks)

• Passing Success Rate: 47.0%, 21st

• Completion Percentage: 71.9%, 9th

All we’re looking for from Minshew is to sustain drives and get the ball out to two guys: Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. And former OC Luke Getsy had a similar setup for the journeyman QB in Las Vegas. The overall scheme was different than Reid and OC Matt Nagy’s (Getsy has the Shanahan/LaFleur influence from his time in Green Bay). Still, it pulled all the levers of using play-action concepts and attacking the middle of the field on short and intermediate routes on early downs. Coincidentally, Mahomes’ early-down play-action rate this season was 30.5% (but he was pressing the ball downfield more often). Even better, Minshew’s top targets in Vegas aren’t too dissimilar to who he’ll be looking to this Sunday.

• Jakobi Meyers: 24.1% (Target Rate), 8.3 (Targets per Game), 33.0% (Air Yard Share)

• Brock Bowers: 24.1%, 8.3, 20.1%

Travis Kelce doesn’t have the juice that Bowers displayed in his rookie season, but the same traits are there. And while it’s easy to see the commonalities between Rashee Rice and Meyers, there’s no question about who can attack zone coverages better. That’s why, even on short notice, I wasn’t shocked to see these two garner all of Minshew’s attempts with their season on the line.

Bottom line: I’ll be honest. I’ve got Rashee Rice on a playoff roster, and I’m starting him this weekend, if he’s cleared from surprise concussion protocol. But the results could go either way. Seven of the last eight QBs to face the Titans have thrown for two TDs or more. Tennessee has just three interceptions since October. But it’s also fourth in pressure rate since its bye, and Minshew isn’t known for his ability to work out of structure. Rice and Kelce’s projectable volume is the only supporting data point to keep them in your starting lineup. But if the Chiefs’ offensive line injuries continue to pile up, Minshew’s downfall may be yours, too.

Along the west side of the Walk of Champions that leads to Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa stand five massive statues honoring the head coaches who have won national championships at Alabama. They have victory in common, and they have something else, too: None of them took very long to claim their titles. Wallace Wade, Gene Stallings and Nick Saban won championships in their third seasons, Bear Bryant and Frank Thomas in their fourth.

Kalen DeBoer, in his second season as Alabama head coach, might just beat them all in the next few weeks … or he might be on a white-hot seat in 72 hours. Such are the peaks and valleys that await every Alabama head coach.

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After missing the inaugural 12-team playoff a year ago, DeBoer and Alabama limped into this year’s bracket and face Oklahoma in the CFP’s first game on Friday night. DeBoer hasn’t even been at Alabama for two full seasons, and he’s already developed a blood nemesis in Oklahoma, which has beaten the Tide twice in a row as an underdog. A third loss to Oklahoma — which would mean a fourth loss in a season for a second year in a row — and DeBoer’s tenure in Tuscaloosa will become one of the offseason’s most fascinating topics.

To understand what DeBoer is up against, it’s necessary to understand the absurdly high measuring stick for coaches at Alabama. Put it this way: If you were to make a Mount Rushmore of college football head coaches, you’d start with two from Alabama before you even began considering any other two. That is the standard in Tuscaloosa.

Historically, when the stars and the polls align, the Alabama head coaching job is both the pinnacle and endpoint of a career. If you win a national title at Alabama — and, again, that’s the baseline expectation — you tend to finish your coaching days there, too.

Four of those five statue-worthy Alabama coaches ended their careers at the school. Thomas and Stallings retired. Bryant died just weeks after his last game, and Saban now spends Saturdays sitting next to Pat McAfee. Only Wade — the first national championship-winning coach at Alabama, the man who led Alabama to its legacy-defining Rose Bowl win in 1926 — coached at another institution after leaving Tuscaloosa. And his story is the most interesting in this current context.

See if this sounds familiar: Wade, who won national championships in the 1925 and 1926 seasons, left Tuscaloosa disgusted with the absurd expectations of Alabama boosters in the years after those wins. His crime? Posting back-to-back 6-3 seasons. (Wade tendered his resignation before the 1930 season, then authored one of the great kiss-offs in college football history, going 10-0 in 1930, winning a third national championship, then immediately bolting for Duke.) A full century later at Alabama, and the story doesn’t change, only the guy holding the whistle (or headset) does.

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Alabama fan expectations induced Bryant into flirting with the Miami Dolphins after three seasons passed without a title. The calls for Stallings’ head came after just three games. Saban very nearly left for Texas in the early 2010s. (Saban’s wife Terry fired a memorable shot across the bow of Alabama boosters in a November 2013 Wall Street Journal interview: “You come to a crossroads and the expectations get so great, people get spoiled by success, and there starts to be a lack of appreciation,” she said. “We’re kind of there now.”)

And those coaches were icons, legends, national championship winners. What chance does Kalen DeBoer — does anyone, really — have against that kind of standard?

The most comparable past Alabama coaches to DeBoer’s situation don’t have statues. Look to the Dark Times — post-Bear, pre-Saban, 24 years with “only” one title — and amid names like Ray Perkins and the Mikes (DuBose, Price and Shula) are Bill Curry and Dennis Franchione. Both came to Alabama with no previous Tide ties. Both won seven games in their first season at Alabama, and 10 games in their final ones. But both went a combined 1-4 against Auburn … and both bolted for other jobs — Curry to Kentucky after three years, Franchione to Texas A&M after two.

It’s not like the Alabama coach meat grinder is any secret. There’s a reason DeBoer’s name has surfaced in connection with both the Penn State and Michigan jobs — and probably a few others under the national radar, too. Every Power Four head coaching job is incredibly difficult … but not every one has championship-or-you’re-gone expectations.

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So yes, while DeBoer has the support of AD Greg Byrne and the university establishment, his seven losses — including four to unranked opponents — have already exhausted the patience of Alabama’s vocal fringes. A third loss to Oklahoma, an early playoff exit, another uninspired performance in a big game, another four-loss season … and the fringe will become the mainstream. That’s what happens at a program where the standard is a statue.

Christmas is a week away, and the Boston Red Sox have yet to sign a free agent to an MLB deal. Only one other club, the Colorado Rockies (and their brand-spanking-new front office), has been similarly passive on the open market. But even though chief baseball officer Craig Breslow hasn’t handed out any contracts, he has still been quite a busy man.

The Sox have conducted six trades, bringing 11 new players into the organization. Not all the transactions have been of the blockbuster variety, but Boston has boosted its pitching corps with two big NL Central swaps, acquiring hurlers Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo.

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But have the Red Sox actually gotten any better? Is the 2026 club positioned to win more games and journey deeper into October than the 2025 version?

That’s a big question, one impossible to answer until we can assess the roster on Opening Day. Instead, here are five other questions that will define the remainder of Boston’s winter.

1. Alex Bregman?

No, that’s not technically a question, grammatically speaking, but you catch my drift. Come Opening Day, Boston’s entire offseason will be defined by whether or not Bregman is back in the fold. In one season with the Sox, the three-time All-Star became that important to the entire operation.

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He missed two months due to a quad injury but otherwise delivered a Bregman-esque statline. The man rarely chases or whiffs, and pulls the ball with authority often enough to produce sufficient power. Off the field, the 31-year-old continued to reinforce his reputation as one of the sport’s most influential clubhouse characters. It was, for both parties, a perfect match.

But Bregman earned the opt-out in his contract, and now 29 other clubs have a shot. That includes the Detroit Tigers, who made a serious play for the third baseman last winter, and the Arizona Diamondbacks, who were recently linked to Bregman.

In the end, though, Bregman ending up back in Boston makes too much sense. The Sox have the budget, the need and a core that, if properly supplemented, could make a real playoff push. How many years and how much dough it will take become the key questions. Fellow Scott Boras client Pete Alonso just parlayed a one-year opt-out into that evasive long-term deal. Bregman is surely hoping for something similar, and the Red Sox can’t afford to miss out.

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2. If they don’t get Bregman, then what?

The only infielder on the open market with a comparable offensive pedigree to Bregman’s is former (and future?) Jays shortstop Bo Bichette. But the suave-swinging 27-year-old is four years younger than Bregman and likely to necessitate a bigger commitment as a result. That’s not a clean fit for a Sox franchise penny-pinching its way through life. Past Bichette, it’s a pair of third basemen in veteran slugger Eugenio Suárez and Japanese import Kazuma Okamoto before things drop off into the gulp Isiah Kiner-Falefa realm.

It’s reasonable to expect youngster Marcelo Mayer to be the Sox’s Opening Day option at either second or third. His flexibility gives Breslow some of his own, but Boston has to make an external infield upgrade of some sort — and if not through free agency, then through trade. The Sox have been rumored around D-backs All-Star Ketel Marte, and Cards second baseman Brendan Donovan would also make sense. But entering the year with Marcelo at third and Ceddanne Rafaela at second (more on him momentarily) would send a message that the Sox are an unserious outfit. This is why it feels like all roads lead back to Bregman.

[Get more Boston news: Red Sox team feed] 

3. How do they simplify the outfield mix?

Boston’s outfield group has firmly entered too-many-cooks territory. Between the grass and the DH spot, the Sox have Rafaela, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony and Masataka Yoshida. All but Rafaela are left-handed swingers. Yoshida can’t really play defense. Abreu and Duran struggled mightily against lefties last year. Anthony, one of the game’s most talented young hitters, has to be playing every day. And Rafaela — one of the best outfield gloves in the sport who, because of Boston’s roster realities, spent far too much time at second base last year — has to be the regular center fielder. Forcing him to the keystone is like putting Jimi Hendrix on bass guitar.

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That means somebody has to go, probably Duran or Abreu. Duran is a tricky figure because rival teams are valuing him much lower than the Sox do. Boston sees him as the 8.7 bWAR/132 OPS+ player he was in 2024; everyone else is treating him according to the 4.7bWAR/114 OPS+ season he just posted. That means either somebody will blink on Duran, the Sox will deal Abreu instead, or Boston will enter 2026 with a bunch of puzzle pieces that don’t really fit together.

Yoshida, meanwhile, is moving toward albatross territory. He’s under contract for two more seasons, doesn’t really hit for power and has the defensive chops of someone stumbling out of the bar at last call. Boston probably gives him one last shot, but there’s a strong argument to cut bait if a better option shows up.

4. Have they done enough to solidify the rotation?

At the offseason’s outset, Breslow was forthcoming about his intention to acquire a viable No. 2 starter behind über-ace Garrett Crochet. That proclamation sent fans into a frenzy, soul-deep into the Paul Skenes fake-trade abyss. Back in the real world, Breslow swung a deal to acquire veteran righty Sonny Gray from the St Louis Cardinals.

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Gray, 36, is still a good pitcher, but he’s far from a surefire, frontline force at this point in his career. Perhaps going from an old-school pitching apparatus in STL to a very progressive one in Boston unlocks something for Gray. Even if that happens, he looks less like a co-ace and more like Crochet’s soft-tossing sidekick.

The other major deal of Boston’s winter, a five-player swap that sent 27-year-old righty Johan Oviedo to Fenway, has much more upside but also much less certainty. Oviedo flashes tantalizing stuff but has had a start-and-stop career.

Those upgrades might be enough, particularly if talented southpaw Payton Tolle delivers on the immense promise he flashed during his 2025 debut. The depth is pretty good, too, with names such as Brayan Bello, Connelly Early, Patrick Sandoval and Kutter Crawford rounding out the rotation. Barring a trade that sends arms elsewhere, it’s hard to see there being room for another pitcher, which means Breslow and Co. are probably rolling into Opening Day with this group.

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5. How much are they willing to spend?

Recent history suggests the Sox are comfortable surpassing the first luxury-tax threshold ($244 million for 2026) but not by much. Last season, according to Spotrac’s very detailed accounting, Boston went less than $1 million into the tax. There’s little reason to expect that to change, based on how the Sox have conducted business over the past half-decade. At this point, despite their mammoth brand recognition and real estate clout, this organization clearly prefers to run a payroll that is firmly in MLB’s third tier (behind Dodgers and Mets in tier 1 and Yankees, Jays and Phillies in tier 2).

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Does that mean they’d balk if Bregman’s asking price gets too high? What if they sign Bregman and have the window for a Ketel Marte deal? Is ownership willing to push the envelope if the right opportunity comes along? Or is there a cement financial ceiling? The answers to those questions could dictate how this winter plays out and, in turn, the immediate future of Red Sox baseball.