Category: Sport

1-on-1 with Charlie Baker

In just a few short years, sports betting has gone from an occasional Vegas detour to a constant presence in American life. A tap away on your phone. A fixture in every commercial break. A storyline woven into every game.

Advertisement

As betting has surged, so have the ripple effects: social media abuse, integrity concerns, pressure on athletes, and an entirely new culture forming around wins, losses, and prop bets. College sports sits at the center of that storm. So I spoke with NCAA President Charlie Baker (no relation) about what he’s seeing, what worries him and what comes next.

Let’s dive in…

Kendall Baker: Charlie, thanks so much for taking the time. I’d like to begin with some pretty alarming numbers. According to a recent NCAA study, 36% of Division I men’s basketball athletes reported experiencing social media abuse related to sports betting within the last year, while 29% reported having interacted with a student on campus who had placed a bet on their team. What are your immediate thoughts when you hear that?

Charlie Baker:

After my appointment was announced in December 2022, I went out and visited about 1,000 student athletes on campuses, mostly in and around New England, which is where I was living. Basically just to sort of say, “tell me what’s going on.”

Advertisement

So much of those conversations were about sports betting — and especially the abuse and harassment that came with it — that one of the first things we did when I got to the NCAA was a survey of 18 to 22 year olds on sports betting. I wanted to see if what I’d been hearing anecdotally was true; that the peer group of a lot of kids who play college sports were really betting on it in a very significant way.

The answer that came back was that, yeah, a ton of people between the ages of 18 and 22 — never mind the grown ups — were betting on college sports. And these are the kids that student athletes are interacting with, going to class with, eating in the cafeteria with and all the rest.

When I was in college, it would have been a very weird day if we had a game coming up and I didn’t have classmates and friends asking me, “How’s it gonna go tonight?” But that was just chatter. Now, it’s guidance and inside information, and I think that creates a completely different dynamic for athletes, especially those playing at a big-time level.

“The phone changed everything”

KB: Legalized sports betting is an issue you dealt with as the Governor of Massachusetts, and now it’s something you’re navigating as president of the NCAA. So I’m just curious how you, personally, think about sports betting and the cultural impact it’s having?

Advertisement

When I was governor and this issue was first being debated and discussed, which probably goes back to 2018 or so, most people thought this was going to be casino-type stuff. That you would go somewhere and bet on sports. Because everybody had always gone to Vegas to bet on sports.

I don’t think anybody was anticipating that it would be as ubiquitous as it became when DraftKings and FanDuel, in particular, created phone-based opportunities for people to bet on pretty much anything. You think about parlays, that’s something that was really hard to do without technology and almost simultaneous betting opportunities.

So there’s just so many things about the technology that I think we can’t underestimate in the growth and the interest and the access that people have to this stuff. The phone changed everything. People just weren’t thinking at that point [in 2018] about how fast this whole thing was going to end up in the palm of your hand.

And look, how many [sports betting] ads do you see when you watch any sort of sporting event now? I mean, this stuff is everywhere. I do believe that when something is illegal, people think twice about it. So you can’t underestimate the impact all these commercials have had [in making] sports betting socially acceptable.

Advertisement

The problem with prop bets

Prop bets have been at the center of this year’s biggest scandals (see: Jontay Porter and Terry Rozier in the NBA, Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz in MLB), and it’s not hard to see why. Unlike wagers tied to team outcomes, these bets hinge on a single player doing a specific thing, whether that’s scoring fewer than 10 points or throwing a ball instead of a strike. That makes them easier to manipulate and easier to approach athletes about.

KB: Why do prop bets pose such a unique threat? And how much of the betting-related harassment stems from these specific types of wagers?

Advertisement

Well, it’s definitely where most of the really aggressive harassment directed at kids is coming from. And the second thing is the pressure that the underperforming prop bets puts on young people. I don’t think that’s something that’s fully understood.

I mean, if you talk to athletes who play for programs where there are regularly betting lines on a lot of what happens in their games… they’ve got classmates, school employees, friends they had in high school, and all kinds of people putting all this social pressure on them.

They’re saying, “Look, I don’t want you to lose the game, but just don’t score more than 20 points. Miss your first shot. Don’t hit your first free throw. Don’t catch your first pass.” It sounds so easy to the person who’s trying to get the kid to do this, and it’s just relentless the pressure.

It’s like, “Hey, I’m not asking you to do something awful or terrible. I’m not asking you to throw the game,” right? But what you are asking them to do is not play the game the way they would choose to play it if their goal was to be a good teammate and win.

Advertisement

I hate the fact that we’ve caught a whole bunch of young people engaging in this stuff, which just sucks for everybody. But our message has been, ya know, “If you do this, we will catch you.” We run a really big integrity monitoring program, probably the biggest in the world. I’m not sure people appreciate that. Over 2.75 million athletes covered over the last five years.

KB: Do you think we could see a nationwide ban on prop bets? There seems to be some momentum around it at the state level as more people realize the danger prop bets pose to the integrity of the games — and to athletes.

We did manage to get a bunch of states to change their rules on this, which I thought was good. And we’re now to the point where even the sportsbooks themselves have acknowledged that [prop bets] are a problem because they’ve changed their rules around NBA and MLB games.

The big challenge with this is always going to be the fact that, for the most part, it’s regulated at the state level. The Senate had a hearing last year, and a couple of them were like, “Hmm, there is some interstate commerce stuff here that we should probably be paying attention to.” But for the most part, they definitely see this more as a state issue. And frankly, I think a lot of the states probably would rather have it as a state issue.

Advertisement

Protecting college athletes

KB: The NCAA is obviously not the only sports organization navigating the realities of legal sports betting. That said, do you feel a unique responsibility to protect your athletes given how much more vulnerable they are than, say, professional athletes?

For sure. There’s a big difference between being a professional athlete with a lot of structure and a lot of advisors around you, and being a kid who eats in a dining hall. And studies in a library. And goes to class with their classmates. And is so much more gettable with respect to practically anything around this. So yeah, for sure, [we feel an added responsibility].

And let’s also talk about scale here, okay? I mean, there are 32 NFL teams, 30 MLB teams, 30 NBA teams, 32 NHL teams. I mean, that’s not even like a conference in collegiate sports when you think about all the teams. We’ve got football, we’ve got men’s and women’s basketball, volleyball, baseball, ice hockey — we have so many sports that are pretty high visibility.

Advertisement

Prediction markets: The next frontier

Just as sports betting has settled into the mainstream, a new, largely unregulated ecosystem is rising alongside it: prediction markets. They look like betting, act like betting, and operate in similar spaces — but without the rules, transparency, or accountability that states require from sportsbooks. That vacuum worries Baker, who sees prediction markets as the next major flashpoint in the gambling world.

Prediction markets are not regulated at all. And so, ya know, California, which currently doesn’t permit sports betting, the prediction markets could have an absolute ball taking that space over.

Advertisement

You see DraftKings and FanDuel dropping out of the American Gaming Association… I’d be willing to conclude that a big part of their reasoning is they’re going to get into the prediction market space. They can’t afford to let those folks dominate all that green space they can’t currently access.

It just says this whole thing is going to get worse unless somebody does something about it. And solving it at the federal level is going to be really challenging because it’s still new and not fully formed. So, I mean, you’re basically talking about no rules, no oversight, no nothing. And that just feels catastrophic to me. Not just for us, but for everybody.

In late October, when the Philadelphia Eagles were hosting a private meeting with a local program for at-risk youth, general manager Howie Roseman took time to sit down and speak to the gathering. The organization in attendance was Youth Mentoring Partnership, which aims to connect young members of the Pennsylvania community with local mentors who can provide guidance on a wide spectrum of life frontiers, from scholastic and physical fitness to mental health, career tutelage and social engagement.

One of the group’s “pillars” is to create goals. That’s part of what Roseman chose to focus on while speaking to attendees.

Advertisement

“Setting goals gives you a clear picture of where you want to go,” Roseman told the group. “You may not get there in a straight line — everyone makes mistakes — but what matters is how you grow and the lessons you carry forward.”

[Get more Eagles news: Philadelphia team feed]

It’s a message Roseman has shared many times and in many ways while leading the Eagles. That wisdom has been earned in all manner of decisions — from making or refusing to make a coaching change, bringing in challenging players or letting go of key pieces of the team, winning and losing Super Bowls and, perhaps most importantly, surviving the journey through the highs and lows that weave from one decision to the next. Through it all, Roseman often takes a line that is rarely straight.

This is what I think about when it comes to this week’s furor surrounding quarterback Jalen Hurts, which feels like it has reached a crescendo of knee-jerk reactions over the past month, from being vehemently booed by Eagles fans at Lincoln Financial Field, to sports talk radio fodder about benching Hurts for backup Tanner McKee, to national talk show conversations about whether Hurts could even be traded by the franchise this offseason.

Advertisement

Even for a Philadelphia fan base that runs notoriously hot and cold — not to mention a media contingent that can quickly trade pens and pencils for axes and knives — this has gotten off the rails.

Before we get into that end of it, consider that Roseman has been with the Eagles for 26 years. He saw the abyss of quarterbacks that occurred between the height of Donovan McNabb and the positioning of Hurts as the team’s long-term franchise QB. There was a void that included all manner of attempts at finding a Super Bowl-winning star at the position — from trades, to signings, to engineering an aggressive draft maneuver to land Carson Wentz.

Finding a legitimate winning quarterback who can either lead a team or follow it to success consistently is a cruel and anxiety-ridden process. When a resolution proves it’s an answer and not just a stopgap, you stick with it through thick and thin. That’s what Hurts represents to Roseman. He proved it when he lost in the Super Bowl following the 2022 season and then clawed his way back alongside Roseman’s 2024 creation and captured both the Lombardi and the game’s MVP honors.

Advertisement

[Get more Eagles news: Philadelphia team feed]

With all of that in mind, I don’t see Roseman risking going back into a quarterback abyss just because there are problems right now with both Hurts and the Eagles’ offense. If anything, it’s more likely Roseman would work another extension with Hurts that could create some more salary cap space rather than trading him and throwing a grenade into his current cap table.

Here’s where things are at on the field: Yes, Philadelphia’s offense is struggling and Hurts is coming off a turnover-laden loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, the team’s third defeat in a row. And yes, there’s some late-season slippage here that understandably creates white-knuckling in the fan base, with reminders of the catastrophic end to a disappointing 2023 season. But everything that is happening now isn’t simply a function of Hurts’ limitations as a passer. And this isn’t 2023, because the Eagles’ defense and special teams are playing at a level that could win a Super Bowl if each was properly complemented with an offense.

Advertisement

Let’s tick down the list on offense, shall we? First, the line, which has been the bone marrow of everything that has made the Eagles great since Hurts was paired with head coach Nick Sirianni, isn’t right. From right tackle Lane Johnson to right guard Landon Dickerson and center Cam Jurgens, the offensive line’s performance has been undercut by nagging injuries all season. That includes key backup offensive tackle Myles Hinton, who has been on injured reserve since August and is only now nearing return.

The reality of the line being hobbled for much of the season has exasperated issues with running back Saquon Barkley, who came into this season already carrying over a massive spate of usage last season, which topped out at 482 touches in the regular season and playoffs. Be it the line’s performance or sheer fatigue — and it could be both — Barkley’s decline in efficiency and explosives has had an impact on Hurts, too, both in terms of how the scheme has been called and how defenses have approached the Eagles. And inside of all of that, you have offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, who is in his first season of calling plays.

Advertisement

That’s a lot of moving parts. And they’re all moving around the quarterback, who is now being pointed at as the crux of the problems.

Mind you, none of this is meant to absolve Hurts’ hand in this. He bares his own percentage of responsibility, from his limitations when it comes to throwing in the middle of the field or anticipating open windows before they develop, to his sometimes-curious rhythms with No. 1 wideout A.J. Brown. But even Brown — who has showcased frustration with the offense multiple times this season — gave Hurts some grace coming out of the loss against the Chargers, a game that saw the quarterback turn the ball over five times, including a forced throw into traffic in overtime that ended the game with an interception.

“I think all of us have a hand in that pocket,” Brown said of Hurts’ turnover spike. “We are trying to get better. Obviously as the quarterback, he’s going to get a lot of stuff for it. But we in this thing together. Like today, that [interception] across the middle, I’m more than capable of making that catch. You can’t put that on him. He was under pressure and it ain’t gonna be perfect.”

That theme hasn’t played well in Philadelphia this week, but Brown is right.

Advertisement

And you can take it a little further too: Hurts is 27 years old and this weekend’s game against the Las Vegas Raiders will be his 100th, including 88 previous starts split between the regular season and playoffs. He is what he is at this point, and his limitations are what they are. Unless the Eagles suddenly have the inclination to turn the clock back to 2022 and make him more of a consistent dual threat quarterback again, the skill set has been cemented. Of course, the Eagles have long recognized that Hurts running the football is both a dangerous and depreciating asset, which is why they paid Barkley to come in be the spine of the rushing attack.

This doesn’t mean the offense can’t improve, of course. Greg Cosell, one of the best game film analysts orbiting the NFL for the 40+ years, said this week on his “Inside the Tape” podcast that what he saw from Hurts against the Chargers was actually encouraging for the Eagles.

Advertisement

“[They had] four strong concepts, they had flood concepts — they had concepts,” Cosell said. “They had concepts that present defined reads and throws for the quarterback. It was the best game of the season in terms of what they did in the pass game from a concepts standpoint.”

If Cosell is right — and I don’t know him to be wrong when it comes to what he’s seeing on tape and measuring against the rest of the league — it signals there are some signs of expansion ahead. Signs that as the game is called, Hurts may be doing more rather than less. Unfortunately that happened in the teeth of a rough loss that triggered the fan base and brought out Hurts’ critics in droves.

Advertisement

Go back to Roseman’s words and focus it in that light. Mistakes will be made. How you grow from them is what matters. The line to success isn’t always straight. That’s the kind of message that has typified Hurts’ entire football career. And when this season draws to a close, it’s likely 2025 won’t be any different.

Nate Tice & Charles McDonald join forces to preview the biggest games of NFL Week 15. After some quick opening thoughts on the 2026 quarterback class, the duo start by getting Lost in the Sauce on their three favorite games. Nate & Charles break down both sides of the ball as they deep dive on Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots, Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams and a hoss fight of a matchup featuring the Green Bay Packers @ the Denver Broncos.

Advertisement

Next, Nate & Charles dive into their Slop Watch picks, including Philip Rivers and the Indianapolis Colts taking on the monster Seattle Seahawks defense and the Miami Dolphins trying to play spoiler against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The two hosts wrap things up with their Hail Mary bold predictions for Week 15, as Nate predicts a big win for the Kansas City Chiefs and Charles forecasts a huge rushing day for the Bills.

(6:50) – Bills @ Patriots

(28:10) – Lions @ Rams

(50:05) – Hoss Fight of the Week: Packers @ Broncos

(1:10:15) – Slop Watch: Colts @ Seahawks

(1:19:00) – Slop Watch: Dolphins @ Steelers

(1:25:50) – Hail Mary bold predictions

🖥️ Watch this full episode on YouTube

Check out the rest of the Yahoo Sports podcast family at https://apple.co/3zEuTQj or at Yahoo Sports Podcasts

University of Michigan president Domenico Grasso said Thursday night that the school’s investigation into Sherrone Moore is still ongoing.

Moore was fired after two seasons as Michigan’s head football coach Wednesday after the school said it had discovered an inappropriate relationship with Moore and a staffer. Not long after Moore was fired, he was detained after police responded to an alleged assault call. Moore’s arraignment is expected Friday.

Advertisement

In a letter to the school, Grasso said Moore was “immediately” terminated after evidence of the relationship was presented.

“When the findings of a university investigation into Coach Moore’s behavior were presented on Wednesday, we immediately terminated his employment,” Grasso wrote.

“There is absolutely no tolerance for this conduct at the University of Michigan. None.

“I have been in close communication with the Board of Regents and we are united in committing to doing what is right.

“This breach of trust by Coach Moore is painful for many in our community, first and foremost, the individuals directly involved in the situation. Yet our swift and decisive action reflects the university’s staunch commitment to a campus culture of respect, integrity and accountability. All of the facts here must be known, so the university’s investigation will continue.”

Grasso then encouraged anyone with information to email a confidential tip line.

Thursday afternoon, NBC reported that Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel told Moore of his firing without anyone else present despite the school having been “alerted prior to Wednesday” that the coach “was dealing with mental health issues.”

Moore was appointed Michigan’s head coach after Jim Harbaugh left to be the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers following the Wolverines’ 2023 national title season. Moore, previously the team’s offensive coordinator, had served as Michigan’s interim coach while Harbaugh was suspended two different times in 2023 and went 17-8 over the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Biff Poggi has been named the team’s interim coach ahead of the Citrus Bowl against Texas.

We now know the players who just missed out on heading to New York City for the Heisman Trophy ceremony.

The players who finished Nos. 5 through 10 in the 2025 Heisman voting were revealed Thursday night ahead of Saturday’s ceremony. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia, Notre Dame RB Jeremiah Love and Ohio State QB Julian Sayin are the four finalists who were invited to the ceremony.

Advertisement

Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez was the top vote-getter among players who missed out. Rodriguez leads a Texas Tech defense that has made a massive leap in 2025 thanks to a lot of help from the transfer portal. Rodriguez, who is in his fourth season at Texas Tech, has 117 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 4 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries and 7 forced fumbles this season. Texas Tech won the Big 12 title for the first time in 2025 and is the No. 4 seed in the College Football Playoff.

Ohio State DB Caleb Downs was the only other defensive player to garner enough votes to finish in the top 10. Downs came in at No. 9.

Downs’ teammate Jeremiah Smith came in at No. 6. Smith followed a stellar freshman season with 80 catches for 1,086 yards and 11 touchdowns through 12 games and he’s also rushed for a score. Ohio State is the No. 2 seed in the College Football Playoff and will play the winner of No. 7 Texas A&M and No. 10 Miami in the Cotton Bowl on Dec. 31.

Advertisement

Mendoza is the overwhelming betting favorite for the award after Indiana won the Big Ten title over Ohio State. Mendoza is currently -1200 at BetMGM ahead of Pavia at +700. The other two players are considerable long shots. Love is 150-1 to win the Heisman and Sayin is 500-1.

Georgia QB Gunner Stockton came in at No. 7 behind Smith and Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss is at No. 8. The final player in the top 10 of the voting is Georgia Tech QB Haynes King. He’s the first Yellow Jacket to receive enough votes to finish in the top 10 since WR Calvin Johnson.

There are a great number of soccer fans who were waiting for Thursday to start buying tickets for World Cup games. And then they found out the price. Now they’re not so excited.

Thursday saw the beginning of FIFA’s first lottery phase since fans actually found out which games would feature which teams thanks to the World Cup draw last week. It also saw FIFA’s latest ticket price hike, with get-in prices rising by hundreds of dollars for some games.

Advertisement

As The Athletic’s Henry Bushnell broke down:

[FIFA] hiked some Category 1 ticket prices from $410 or $445 last month to $700 for games such as England vs. Croatia and Scotland vs. Brazil. In total, the Category 1 price rose for 80 of the 104 matches — in some cases by 71% — while it fell for 11 matches, according to data tracked and compiled by The Athletic.

Those Category 1 games are basically just lower-bowl seats, and even second-deck seats in some stadiums. Seats are divided into four different categories, and FIFA promised tickets priced as low as $60 for some of the Category 4 tickets. Per The Athletic, those tickets appear to be scarce bordering on unattainable, with none available for sale on Thursday.

These are the prices that FIFA will be rolling with through Jan. 13, after which the current lottery phase closes and fans will either receive their tickets while getting charged or receive a rejection notice.

Football Supporters Europe, an organization representing fans’ interests in such matters, released a furious statement calling the prices “extortionate” and “astronomical,” noting they are exorbitant even when compared to the 2022 World Cup, which was held in Qatar in stadiums built at enormous expense:

Based on the information currently available to FSE, if a supporter were to follow their team from the first match to the final through a PMA allocation, it would cost them a minimum of 6900 USD – nearly five times as much as during the FIFA WC 2022 in Qatar.

National team supporters are expected to pay this full amount in early 2026 to have the opportunity to follow their team up to the final.

Adding insult to injury, the lowest price category will not be available to the most dedicated supporters through their National Associations, as FIFA chose to reserve the scarce number of category 4 tickets to the general sales, subject to dynamic ticket pricing. This is a monumental betrayal of the tradition of the World Cup, ignoring the contribution of supporters to the spectacle it is.

What’s different in this World Cup is FIFA’s introduction of variable pricing, which essentially means setting ticket prices based on the expected demand for the seats. That will sound like standard operating procedure, or even quaint, for many American fans used to shelling out for NFL games in the very stadiums that will be hosting some of the World Cup games, but it’s an outrage for some international fans used to different standards of fan treatment.

Advertisement

FIFA defended its decision in a statement to The Athletic:

A FIFA spokesman told The Athletic in a statement this week that “the pricing model … reflects the existing market practice for major entertainment and sporting events within our hosts on a daily basis, soccer included.”

Soccer’s global governing body also frequently points out that, “as a not-for-profit organization, the revenue FIFA generates from the World Cup is reinvested to fuel the growth of the game (men, women, youth) throughout FIFA’s 211 member associations.”

The World Cup is scheduled to begin June 11, with games in the United States, Canada and Mexico.

We know when Lane Kiffin will be back at Vaught Hemingway Stadium.

The SEC revealed its 2026 football schedule Thursday night and the new LSU coach won’t wait too long to visit his former employer. The Tigers are set to visit Ole Miss in Week 3 on Saturday, Sept. 19.

Advertisement

Kiffin dramatically left Ole Miss for LSU at the end of the 2025 regular season even though the Rebels were on the cusp of the College Football Playoff. Ole Miss is the No. 6 seed and will host Tulane on Dec. 20 in the first round of the playoff.

Ole Miss will be coached by former defensive coordinator Pete Golding in that game. Golding was promoted to head coach as Kiffin was in the process of heading to Baton Rouge on Nov. 30. While Kiffin won’t be on the sidelines for the Rebels in the College Football Playoff, many offensive assistants who followed him to Baton Rouge will be, including offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr.

Ole Miss beat LSU 24-19 in 2025. That game was also in Oxford, Mississippi. The SEC is moving to a nine-game conference schedule in 2026 as each team will play a rotating cast of six teams twice over four seasons and three teams every season for the next four years. Ole Miss and LSU are permanent rivals in the current SEC schedule setup, and LSU is making back-to-back trips to accommodate the logistics of the new SEC schedule.

Below is the entire 2026 SEC schedule in full.

Advertisement

2026 SEC schedule

Week 1

• North Alabama at Arkansas

• Baylor vs. Auburn (Atlanta)

• Florida Atlantic at Florida

• Tennessee State at Georgia

• Youngstown State at Kentucky

• Louisville vs. Ole Miss (Nashville)

• Louisiana-Monroe at Mississippi State

• Arkansas Pine-Bluff at Missouri

• Kent State at South Carolina

• Missouri State at Texas A&M

• Austin Peay at Vanderbilt

Week 2

• Mississippi State at Minnesota

• Tennessee at Georgia Tech

• Arizona State at Texas A&M

Week 3

• Mississippi State at South Carolina

• Kennesaw State at Tennessee

Week 4

• South Carolina at Alabama

• South Alabama at Kentucky

• Missouri at Mississippi State

Week 5

• Alabama at Mississippi State

• Kentucky at South Carolina

Week 6

• South Carolina at Florida

• Texas vs. Oklahoma (Dallas)

Week 7

Week 8

• Oklahoma at Mississippi State

• Tennessee at South Carolina

Week 9

• Florida at Georgia (Atlanta)

• South Carolina at Oklahoma

• Mississippi State at Texas

Week 10

• Vanderbilt at Mississippi State

• Texas A&M at South Carolina

Week 11

• South Carolina at Arkansas

• Auburn at Mississippi Stateate

Week 12

• Tennessee Tech at Mississippi State

• Georgia at South Carolina

Week 13

• Mississippi State at Ole Miss

• South Carolina at Clemson

Subscribe to Inside Coverage

What should we make of Joe Burrow’s dejected press conference? Yahoo Sports’ Andrew Siciliano, Jori Epstein and Ben Fawkes break down the possible meanings behind the Cincinnati Bengals QB’s words. Could he want out? They also preview the biggest matchups of Week 15, including a crucial AFC North clash between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs‘ potential playoff elimination game against the Los Angeles Chargers. They’re joined by Khalil Shakir and Justin Jefferson in the process. You don’t want to miss this fun preview show!

Advertisement

(2:17) – Could Joe Burrow be on the move?

(15:06) – Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (ft. Khalil Shakir)

(25:35) – Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams

(35:08) – Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos

(44:45) – Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys (ft. Justin Jefferson)

(56:59) – Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

(1:03:51) – One More Thing

🖥️ Watch this full episode on YouTube

Check out the rest of the Yahoo Sports podcast family at https://apple.co/3zEuTQj or at Yahoo Sports Podcasts

What is old is new again in the AFC. The stalwarts of the NFL at the beginning of the 21st century are now back on top of their respective divisions. The Broncos, Steelers and Patriots are partying like it’s 2014 (or 2004) and the Jaguars are appropriately playing like the Jaguars whose uniforms they’ve started donning again.

While the NFC has the Rams, Seahawks and Packers amongst other competitive teams and units, the AFC feels a little upside down, even if the standings are such a nod to the past that it would make the Duffer Brothers blush.

Advertisement

I looked at the four teams that lead the AFC divisions with four weeks to go in what’s shaping up to be a wide-open conference and playoffs. Each team has two numbers that represent a split between how the teams have played at certain times, with certain players, or against certain opponents, and what that means for these current division leaders as they try to make a run in January.

Let’s dive in.

Denver Broncos

Number to know: 9th, 23rd

Those are, respectively, Bo Nix’s drop-back success rates against man coverage and zone coverage this season out of 29 qualifying quarterbacks. Nix’s splits against man and zone are stark and clear: He’s worse against zone.

Advertisement

The good: Nix is essentially a top-10 quarterback this season against man coverage. He loves to take isolated receivers on the outside, primarily Courtland Sutton (but Pat Bryant is coming along, too). Against man coverage, Nix ranks fifth in EPA per dropback and ninth in explosive play rate, and his 7.1 net yards per attempt is a respectable 12th.

The bad: Against zone coverage, Nix is essentially a bottom-10 quarterback this season. He ranks 14th in EPA per dropback (going from .28, which is around an MVP-level mark, to .04) and his success rate drops from 48.2% to 41.7%, with his explosive plays (from 16.9% to 10.2%, which ranks 26th) and net yards per attempt (5.7, which ranks 20th) dropping as well.

It makes sense! Nix has a big arm and is a great athlete, but his inconsistent footwork and the frantic speed at which he processes make him too antsy to have consistent results when reading out zone coverages. Nix can be spooked by any coverage he doesn’t read out cleanly, like a horse (even a bronco, if you will) bucking at a loud sound. Nix will often choose to leave the pocket altogether rather than hang in there to move onto his second or third reads; 30.9% of Nix’s pass attempts against zone this season have come from outside the pocket, the highest rate in the NFL. He can fire in throws when he’s comfortable with the route and what he’s seeing, but it’s still inconsistent, even when Sean Payton attempts to streamline reads to one side being the man coverage-beating side and other to be the zone-beating side, or to cut the entire field in half on movement throws.

Advertisement

Against man coverage, things are more streamlined for Nix. He can find his man-beating route (like Sutton on an isolated vertical route or slant) and let it rip with no worries about layering a throw over an intermediate defender. To further illustrate, 47.6% of Nix’s targets are to outside receivers against man coverage, which ranks fourth in the NFL; against zone coverage, that outside receiver rate drops to 34.9%, which ranks 20th. And Nix’s legs make him a weapon as a scrambler, especially against man coverage when defenders are paying more attention to receivers and not the quarterback.

Denver’s defense is full of banshees that are racking up sacks at a historic rate, and it’s mostly good-to-elite in every metric. The Broncos are deep up front, and they have Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss (I swear he’s good outside of getting dunked on every week), and Talanoa Hufanga wants to collect souls like Shang Tsung. They’re top-five against the run and don’t allow explosives.

That said, you can poke at them a bit with run plays with pullers, and they can be susceptible to targets to the slot. They’re 21st in EPA per pass but seventh in passing success rate, and 30th in EPA per pass allowed to slot targets when in zone coverage as well. That’s something to keep an eye on in Week 15 against the Packers and a now-healthy Jayden Reed. But it’s still an elite unit that takes it to offenses on every snap. It’s just their offense, and their quarterback, have to iron out their kinks to not meet a frustrating end to their season.

Advertisement

New England Patriots

Numbers to know: 30th, 16th

Those are, respectively, the Patriot offense’s ranks in EPA per rush and Patriot defense’s rank in EPA per rush allowed this season.

Starting with the offense, the numbers get a little better since TreVeyon Henderson started to take a larger workload after Rhamondre Stevenson suffered a toe injury in Week 9 against the Falcons, with the Pats’ run game bumping up to 23rd in EPA per rush and 24th in rushing success rate. (Their 37.9% is inching toward that 40% threshold, though, which represents a good rushing attack.) Opponent adjustments don’t do the Patriots’ run game any favor, as they rank 31st in DVOA, ahead of only the Raiders’ atrocious ground “attack” (I use the term loosely).

Advertisement

So far, it hasn’t hindered New England too much. Mostly because of a favorable schedule, and also because of the supernova/phenom/future MVP (if not this season, then before this decade wraps up) the Patriots have at quarterback in Drake Maye. There is also the hope that the return of rookie offensive tackle Will Campbell, who had a strong first season before being placed on IR, will help give this run game a further boost. Just a little bit more consistency can go a long way to help their young star signal-caller when defenses get tighter and tighter in the postseason. Especially when teams like the Buccaneers have already showed they are fine dropping eight into coverage (like Todd Bowles did in Week 10, one of the highest rates of his play-calling career), daring Maye to be patient and the Patriots to run the ball consistently. (Which they didn’t do that day. Henderson did have his two huge touchdown runs, which more than made up for it, but relying on home runs is a dangerous bet come postseason.)

The Patriots’ defense confounds me. Like their offensive brethren, they have faced an easy schedule (32nd in DVOA’s schedule rank, with the offense ranking 31st in their respective metric), and they have real strengths but real pickable aspects that will get tested by more competent offenses.

The Patriots play a mix of coverages and overall have a more bend-but-don’t-break style that almost plays, for lack of a better word, stereotypically? When the Patriots play two-high coverages (which they do at a slightly above league average rate, 37.7% of snaps vs. 35.2%), they allow themselves to get peppered underneath and on the ground while limiting big plays. They rank 25th in passing success rate allowed and 26th in rushing success rate when playing Cover 2, 4 or 6 this season. But they rank seventh in EPA per play, 26th in EPA per rush and eighth in EPA per pass allowed in those same coverages. Yielding very few big plays, especially on early downs, forces offenses to be methodical and into repeat conversion attempts on late downs (meaning third and fourth).

Advertisement

And sure enough, the Patriots’ defense has stark splits in this regard. They’re dead last in passing success rate allowed on early downs this season, a blistering 52.9% rate against mostly toothless passing games. But because this is the Patriots’ defense, they sure enough rank first in passing success rate allowed on late downs at a 30% clip, half of the league’s 59.9% average. They’re first in net yards per attempt on late downs and second in sheer EPA per play. (You can, though, run on the Patriots on late downs, because of course you can. They are dead last in rushing success rate allowed on late downs, and out of the 28 runs they’ve faced, this season, the Patriots have allowed 23 to go for successful gains.)

Perhaps Milton Williams’ return will help keep their heads above water and force defenses to late downs. But it is something I’m keeping my eye on as the Patriots’ yards before contact allowed per run jumped from .71 from Weeks 1-8 (which would rank first over the entire season) to 2.36 yards before contact allowed per run since Week 9, which would easily rank dead last.

Eye test-wise and statistically, the Patriots are more consistent when they play single-high (man-to-man) coverages and let their talented cornerback duo of Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis do their thing. And the Patriots play a good amount of man coverage, especially as the downs get later.

Advertisement

So, the TL;DR of the Patriots: They can stop the run when they think the opponent is going to run (when in base defense, on first and second down, etc.) and they can stop the pass when they think the opponent is going to pass (when in nickel or dime personnel, on third and fourth down, etc.). Their run game needs a little more work, and perhaps their bye week will stock up the ammo that this attack needs. And Drake Maye rocks.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Numbers to know: 29th, 5th

Those are Trevor Lawrence’s ranks in drop-back success rate before and after the Jaguars traded for Jakobi Meyers.

Meyers, a well-rounded wide receiver whose skill set fits in any type of scheme or ecosystem, had been withering away in the Las Vegas desert before the Jaguars made a move for him at the trade deadline. But as soon as he stepped on the football field in teal and black, he became a steadying force for the Jaguars’ sometimes explosive but oftentimes frustrating pass game.

Lawrence ranks first in the NFL in completions of 10 or more yards since Week 10 (he was 14th in the first half of the season) and seventh in explosive pass rate. Opportunities over the middle of field are no longer being called “hospital balls” due to Brian Thomas Jr’s lack of fondness for running over the middle. Instead, they’re now highlights featuring long catch-and-runs by Meyers — and that same Brian Thomas Jr. laying key blocks down the field.

Lawrence, who has always been willing to work the upper half of high-lows and push the football (especially when he’s really feeling it), is throwing between the numbers at the highest rate in the NFL since Week 10. He’s pushing it over two yards further on those throws, too, from 6.6 air yards per attempt and a 49.3% success rate on throws between the numbers before Week 10 to 8.8 air yards per attempt and a scorching 60.3% success rate after Week 10, for a tidy .29 EPA per dropback.

Advertisement

Meyers’ all-around game, along with the return of tight end Brenton Strange, has freed Thomas Jr. to do what he’s best at. Namely, vertical and outbreaking routes where he can use his speed and size, while keeping him from too much contact that can happen on in-breaking routes. And sure enough, Thomas Jr. has rediscovered the confidence that made him look like such a star during his rookie year.

Lawrence, too, looks more confident in letting throws rip with Meyers around. So much so the loss of Travis Hunter for the season hasn’t been really felt. Hunter flashed all-world ability as a rookie, but also did look raw as a route runner and just lacked polish overall as a wide receiver. (Hunter looking to the sideline for help from Jaguars coaches whenever Lawrence changed a play became a weekly all-22 highlight for me.) That lack of polish, along with Thomas Jr. spiraling after a slew of early-season drops, led to a lack of trust for Lawrence to push the ball and try some throws. Instead, he tucked the football and scrambled rather than relying on one of his wide receivers to get to the right spot.

The Jaguars’ offense has had brilliant moments of design from Liam Coen and the coaching staff, as well as stretches of explosive execution from players, but it’s all too often felt chaotic. A late break of the huddle here, another illegal shift penalty there. Since their Week 8 bye week, the Jaguars have felt a little more buttoned up, going from a penalty per snap rate of 8.1% from Weeks 1-8 (which would easily rank highest if it were a full-season number) to 5.2% from Week 9 onward (a more respectable 17th).

Advertisement

The offense, Coen and Lawrence included, feels like it’s taken a deep breath since the bye week. And I think Meyers has helped only calm everyone’s nerves. The offensive line is well-coached but lacks high-end talent, but with Lawrence playing like this along with a feisty defense full of players playing the best football of their careers, this Jaguars offense, and team, is suddenly feeling dangerous in a wide-open conference.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Numbers to know: 24th, 6th

Those are the Steelers’ defense’s ranks in EPA per pass allowed before and after Week 9.

Why week 9? That’s when they moved Jalen Ramsey to safety full time. Ramsey, truly one of the best defensive back prospects and players of the past decade-plus, has played at an All-Pro level as both an outside cornerback and as a slot defender in his career. His combination of size, speed, length and football IQ has allowed him to flourish in both spots and in multiple different defensive schemes, and it’s allowed him to transition flawlessly to playing safety (a position Ramsey played during his freshman season at Florida State, and some NFL teams even had him graded there as a prospect).

Advertisement

After playing just 61 total snaps as a safety since 2019 (the furthest TruMedia’s position data goes back), Ramsey has played 354 snaps as a safety this season, with 75.8% of his snaps since Week 9 there. And Ramsey, like Charles Woodson and Rod Woodson before him, has hit the ground running while playing in the deep post.

Against the Ravens, there were snaps of Ramsey flying from depth and corralling Derrick Henry by himself. And then a few players later, there’s Ramsey cutting a crossing wide receiver and devouring them like a hawk taking down a sparrow. The Steelers just feel a little more shored up with Ramsey being there to erase mistakes and whatever the offense is trying. It’s not all perfect, of course, but the Steelers went from being a bottom-eight passing defense to firmly top-eight since Week 9. They’ve lowered the passing success rate allowed by 10% (to 38.7%, which ranks sixth since Week 9), with their net yards per attempt (7 to 5.8) on top of their EPA ranks improving, too.

The Steelers’ offense is death-by-4-yard gains, whether it’s on the ground or through the air. Arthur Smith seems downright giddy deploying Darnell “The Mountain That Rides” Washington, an extra offensive lineman, and multiple blocking wide receivers as Jaylen Warren spins his way for another solid gain. (Also, shoutout to the young, talented Steelers offensive line).

Advertisement

The passing game is go-balls to DK Metcalf and checkdowns and swings to Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. Only eight running backs have a target share above 20% this year in the NFL; Warren and Gainwell are two of them. Aaron Rodgers’ 5.9 air yards per attempt ranks 449th among 452 qualifying quarterback seasons since 2013. His -3.2 average air yards to sticks (how close a quarterback throws the ball relative to the first-down marker) ranks 451st, only above Alex Smith in 2020 with Washington.

So, that’s the Steelers for you. A veteran defense with a veteran safety at the top of the pyramid and an offense that looks like Pigpen from Peanuts.

In the heat of the 2023 NFL season, an AFC team with a chance at the playoffs faced a dilemma. The club’s starting quarterback was out for the year with a fractured shoulder. The remaining quarterback room was shallow and soon to get shallower.

But the Cleveland Browns’ defense ranked first overall that season. And at 7-3, the Browns were just half a game out of the division lead.

Advertisement

So on Nov. 20, 2023, the Browns signed a 38-year-old Joe Flacco off the couch. He’d been throwing two to three times a week with his brother while without an NFL roster spot all season and running some to keep his fitness up.

“I definitely believe,” Flacco said two days after the signing, “I can still play.”

Four 300-yard passing games in five starts, a Browns playoff berth and a still-now-revived NFL tenure suggest Flacco was right that he could.

Philip Rivers’ unretirement this week to join the Indianapolis Colts is far from a clean parallel. And yet, the recent memory of Flacco tempts coaches, executives and players around the NFL to wonder: What if?

Advertisement

[Get more Colts news: Indianapolis team feed]

To be clear, Rivers is 44 years old, six more senior than Flacco at that signing. Rivers’ last NFL action came 59 months ago, a far cry from Flacco’s 11-month layoff. And Rivers’ omission of any clear throwing routine he’s recently followed suggests that his recent readiness probably don’t resemble that of 2023 Flacco.

And yet, as the Colts took snaps in individual drills Thursday, reporters saw Rivers leading the charge among quarterbacks.

His chance to start against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday is very real. The energy Rivers is bringing the Colts after Daniel Jones joined fellow quarterback Anthony Richardson Sr. on injured reserve is, too.

Will the admittedly not-mobile-in-his-prime-and-certainly-not-now Rivers be able to step back into form against the league’s No. 2’s defense well enough to produce and stay healthy?

Advertisement

Head coach Shane Steichen said the club will take its decision day by day, as the Colts also assess sixth-round rookie Riley Leonard’s knee injury recovery. But the tone from Rivers, Steichen and teammates did not suggest Rivers was leaving his family and risking his 2026 Pro Football Hall of Fame semifinalist status (for at least five years) to ride the bench as a mentor.

What’s optimal may not be what unfolds next.

“In an ideal world, Philip would have this week just to get his sea legs back,” one high-ranking AFC executive told Yahoo Sports. “I just don’t know that Indianapolis has that luxury.”

For Flacco, NFL return was ‘like riding a bike.’ Will older, longer-layoff Rivers agree?

When the Browns approached Flacco in 2023, there were boxes to check.

Advertisement

Did Flacco want to still play? Was he in shape? Flacco’s arm strength, they realized, was on track to be above average well into his senior citizen days. His muscle mass, too, remained more than sufficient to protect himself from hits.

It was helpful that Flacco, like Rivers now, would need to withstand the wear and tear on his body for about just two months in an ideal world and closer to one if the playoff berth didn’t materialize. Neither club was asking an aging player to hold up through the training camp grind and 17-plus games of a live pass rush. And while the Browns offered Flacco the chance to play with the league’s top defense, the Colts currently rank fifth in scoring and sixth in total offense.

Running back Jonathan Taylor anchors the league’s top ground scoring attack, while the Colts’ offensive line offers the fifth-best run block win rate, per ESPN metrics (protection is a bit shakier, with the 25th-ranked pass block win rate).

Schematically, Rivers enters with more of a playbook advantage than Flacco given he returns to a system he’s played in, teaming up with a coaching staff and terminology with which he’s already familiar.

Advertisement

Two years ago, then-Browns offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt lauded Flacco’s ability to play on time, work through progressions and take checkdowns. Even as Flacco hadn’t needed to play in rhythm throughout that season, his muscle memory activated when he returned to the field.

“I made sure to keep my arm in good enough shape,” Flacco said after his first start, two weeks into his Browns stint. “There’s definitely an element to it that’s like riding a bike. Just get back out there and start doing it.”

The Colts hope Rivers will experience the same.

Rivers returns to the NFL five years after initially ending his 17-season, eight-Pro Bowl career featuring 134 wins in 240 career regular-season games. Rivers completed 64.9% of passes for 63,440 yards during that stretch; he threw for 421 touchdowns and 209 interceptions.

Advertisement

Some coaches and talent evaluators around the league wonder how quickly the reactions will return, and they wonder whether Rivers’ body will be able to keep pace with his mind as the pattern recognition returns. Practices won’t represent live hits. But they will indicate his ability to get in sync with his weapons and protection.

“If it’s like, he’s kind of missing throws or he’s a click late and things where you’re like, ‘Ah, that would’ve been a sack,’ I’d want to give him another [week],” the high-ranking AFC executive said. “Or if he feels like he got hit by a Mack truck after going through his first week of NFL practice, I’d wait a week.”

If Rivers’ body can hold up, league execs believe in his mind

Van Pelt championed an unusual trait when Flacco returned.

Advertisement

Sure, Flacco’s coordinator described his arm strength “on a scale of one to five, I’d say it’s a five.” But beyond ball velocity, Flacco also tapped into a quick release.

“Really self-aware of who he is as a player,” Van Pelt said. “His decision-making and the ability to get the ball out of his hands will help.”

The Colts hope Rivers can similarly understand how well his body can execute the signals his brain sends.

Rivers will benefit from experience with the Colts’ current offensive philosophies during nine overlapping seasons with Steichen at the Chargers. And the high-ranking AFC executive did not worry about Rivers’ ability to diagnose Seahawks head coach Mike MacDonald’s defense. Sure, MacDonald’s schemes warranted at least one former colleague’s description as the “defensive Sean McVay.” But how likely is it that Rivers has faced a similar game plan before?

Advertisement

“Defensive football really is cyclical and there are only so many coverages that you truly see,” the executive said. “I’d be less concerned about that.”

The Colts’ schedule won’t lighten: After facing the No. 2 scoring defense in Seattle, the Colts will face the eighth, 11th and then first-place scoring defenses in the 49ers, Jaguars and Texans.

Rivers said he’ll push to start as soon as possible — even if the Seahawks held 36-year-old Kirk Cousins to a 50% completion rate, two interceptions and no scores less than a week ago.

“I’m going to prepare and push,” he said. “I know how good that stinking team is and how well they’re playing right now. So me at 30 years old, me at 44 years old, going to Seattle and winning in 2025 and Week 14 or whatever it is, it’s going to be tough.”

Advertisement

Coaches and executives alike are marveling at the experiment, ready to embrace a great story if the wacky experiment somehow works. Some fear Rivers will become the latest injured Colts quarterback. Rivers argues in return that he has plenty of time to rehabilitate. There is upside, even if the floor is low.

“Let’s face it,” one NFC assistant said, “the Colts can use a shot in the arm and pick-me-up.”

An AFC talent evaluator agreed and then reiterated the disbelief.

“I can’t believe this is happening lol,” the evaluator texted. “It’s like a simulation/dream.

“Pretty unbelievable.”