Category: Business

An account on the prediction market Polymarket that appears to bear the name and birth year of British financier and Nigel Farage confidant George Cottrell lost more than $550,000 on bets about whether the U.S. would bomb Iran.

The “GCottrell93” account wagered roughly $550,000 on the outcome “No” to the question “US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?” according to Polymarket data first cited by UK newspaper The Daily Telegraph. The position was wiped out after the United States struck Iran on February 28. Prior to this, the account won multiple bets against the strikes before other dates in February.

The same account also appears to have lost around $125,000 on a bet that Prime Minister Keir Starmer would be out of office by February 28. It has garnered almost $3.5 million in profits, the bulk of that coming from a bet on Trump winning the 2024 election.

Blockchain investigator ZachXBT has previously expressed “high confidence” that the account belongs to Cottrell, a longtime associate of Reform UK leader Farage who has helped raise millions of pounds for his political movements, including Ukip and the Brexit Party. In 2025 his mother, aristocrat Fiona Cottrell, emerged as one of Reform UK’s largest donors.

Cottrell has a long history with high‑stakes betting and finance. Court filings in the UK previously named him as part of a professional betting syndicate linked to Brighton and Hove Albion owner Tony Bloom. The syndicate, tied to the analytics firm Starlizard, reportedly generated hundreds of millions of dollars in winnings, with Cottrell said to have earned substantial sums by copying its bets.

Cottrell was arrested in 2016 while attending the Republican National Convention in Chicago alongside Farage. U.S. prosecutors charged him with conspiracy to commit money laundering, wire fraud, blackmail and extortion after meetings with undercover federal agents in Las Vegas. Following a plea agreement, he pleaded guilty to a single count of wire fraud and served eight months in prison.

Last month, he published a book entitled “How To Launder Money: A guide for law enforcement, prosecutors and policymakers,” whose launch was attended by Farage and senior Reform UK figures.

In a statement emailed to Decrypt, a Reform UK spokesperson said that “George Cottrell is not employed by the party so you are best approaching him for comment.” Decrypt has attempted to contact Cottrell via his company, Geostrategy. 

Reform UK and crypto

Reform UK has taken an explicitly pro‑cryptocurrency stance and became the first major British political party to accept crypto donations in June 2025. The policy has drawn criticism from lawmakers and transparency campaigners who warn that cryptocurrency donations could enable money laundering or foreign interference in British elections.

This week former Labour minister Rushanara Ali called for a ban on crypto political donations, describing them as a potential vector for “foreign interference in our democracy.” Seven parliamentary committee chairs also wrote to the prime minister earlier this year urging an explicit prohibition on cryptocurrency donations.

Campaign groups have raised similar concerns. The UK Anti‑Corruption Coalition and Spotlight on Corruption argue that the Electoral Commission lacks the powers necessary to properly monitor the origin of crypto donations.

Despite publicly saying it accepts it, donating online to Reform UK using crypto doesn’t seem to work. Decrypt tried to access the party’s crypto donations page online on multiple browsers and was directed to a blank page each time.

Prediction markets under scrutiny

Cottrell’s bets also come at a time of increased scrutiny of prediction markets. Polymarket is not licensed to operate in the UK and limits services to UK-based users. The Gambling Commission told Decrypt it “does not comment on individual businesses” but pointed to its register of licensed operators, which does not include Polymarket.

In guidance published last month, the regulator said prediction market platforms would likely fall under the legal definition of a “betting intermediary” in the UK, similar to a betting exchange, and would require the appropriate gambling licence to operate legally.

Despite arguments by some platforms that prediction markets are distinct from gambling, regulators around the world have taken an increasingly hard line. Companies in the sector face legal or regulatory challenges in numerous jurisdictions including  France, Germany, Italy, Australia, Singapore, Portugal, Hungary, Thailand and the Netherlands.

Kazakhstan’s central bank has earmarked $350 million for investments in the crypto, with plans to deploy capital as early as next month, Reuters reported on Friday.

“This includes not only cryptocurrency itself,” National Bank of Kazakhstan Governor Governor Timur Suleimenov reportedly said, while taking questions on the central bank’s latest interest rate decision. “We are currently developing ​a list of instruments in which we ⁠will invest.”

Derived from the Central Asian country’s gold and foreign exchange reserves, which totaled nearly $70 billion as of Feb. 1, the initiative marks an effort to diversify away from traditional stores as value using a relatively small amount of capital.

The investments will span “shares of high-tech ​companies related to cryptocurrencies and digital financial assets, index funds, and other instruments that exhibit similar ​dynamics to crypto assets,” suggesting that the central bank may not hold digital assets in their native form.

Decrypt has reached out to the National Bank of Kazakhstan for comment.

Kazakhstan’s national fund, established decades ago to manage oil-sale revenue, was valued at $65.23 billion at the start of last month. And the central bank’s investments in crypto could begin as late as May, per Reuters, which cited Deputy Governor Aliya Moldabekova.

“We are currently selecting companies that deal with digital ​assets. For ​example, those ⁠involved in cryptocurrency infrastructure,” she said. “We are currently in the process ​of selecting such companies.”

The measure resembles a relatively distinct approach to capitalizing on digital assets compared to the strategic Bitcoin reserve established by the Trump administration last year, set to be seeded using Bitcoin seized from U.S. criminal or civil proceedings via executive order. The reserve represented a key campaign promise from President Donald Trump in 2024.

Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev floated a strategic crypto reserve himself in September, describing such assets as foundational to “the new digital financial system.”

At the time, he tied the country’s efforts to Alatau City, a so-called smart city featuring massive towers that aims to reach a population of 2 million residents by 2050.

“Alatau City should become the first fully digitalized city in the region,” Tokayev said, underscoring a desire for “technologies to pay for goods and services with cryptocurrency.”

Bitcoin plunged below $70,000 on Friday, falling more than 5% over the last day as the U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate inched up to 4.4%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

U.S. Representative Darren Soto (D-FL) was quick to blame President Donald Trump for the weakening labor market.

“Job losses mount as Trump’s dismal economy continues to take its toll on American families,” he wrote on X. “U.S. lost another 92,000 jobs in February after dismal job numbers for 2025. His tariffs, corruption and incompetence are to blame.”

The president hasn’t yet commented on the the jobs report. On Truth Social, he said of the U.S. war with Iran that: “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”

Bitcoin peaked above $72,000 yesterday, but was trading for $68,282 at the time of writing after having lost 5.6% in the past day, according to crypto price aggregator CoinGecko.

Liquidations have been modest over the past 24 hours. A total of $370 million worth of crypto derivatives have been forced to sell in the past day, the majority of that coming from long positions. Nearly half of that tally came from Bitcoin positions, according to derivatives analytics platform CoinGlass.

Earlier this week, Bitcoin climbed above $74,000 for the first time in four weeks. But the retrace isn’t cause for alarm, according to Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev.

“Markets do not need acceleration here; they need acceptance above reclaimed levels,” he said in a note shared with Decrypt. “Stability above $70,000 would reinforce the idea that positioning has reset and that incremental supply is thinning.”

There’s also signs that institutional BTC investors are still feeling skittish, as Bitcoin ETFs shed $228 million on Thursday.

Looking ahead, next week will bring a full slate of marcoeconomic indicators, Kalchev added.

“Monday brings Japan’s gross domestic product data. Wednesday features Germany consumer price index, United States consumer price index, and a United States 10-year note auction that will test demand for duration at current yield levels,” he wrote. “Thursday’s initial jobless claims and Friday’s core personal consumption expenditures data alongside JOLTs job openings will further shape the inflation and labor narrative.”

Dubai’s digital asset regulatory body has ordered Kucoin Exchange EU Gmbh—operating as Kucoin—to cease and desist its operations in the emirate, according to a Friday announcement. 

The Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) said that the cryptocurrency exchange does not hold a license to provide digital asset services within Dubai, and is therefore not authorized to operate there. 

“It has come to VARA’s attention that the company [KuCoin] may be providing Virtual Asset activities to Dubai residents without the necessary regulatory approvals and misrepresenting its licensing status,” the notice reads. “As a result, the company has been instructed to cease and desist all unlicensed VA activities.”

The regulator’s announcement warns investors that engaging with unlicensed companies can pose “significant financial risks” and advises them not to utilize KuCoin. 

In response to the news, KuCoin indicated that it operates via various entities in different geographic jurisdictions, saying KuCoin Exchange EU GmbH “operates as a MiCAR-regulated entity focused on the European Union (EU) market” and does not accept non-EU users or conduct marketing activity outside the area. 

“Regulatory frameworks for digital assets are developing rapidly across many jurisdictions, and regulators are increasingly clarifying their expectations for the industry,” a spokesperson for the firm told Decrypt. “KuCoin respects applicable laws and regulatory processes globally and maintains a cooperative approach with regulators while supporting the development of a responsible digital asset ecosystem.”

It is not immediately clear whether or not the exchange will seek the appropriate regulatory licenses to operate in the emirate, and a representative did not immediately respond to Decrypt’s inquiry. 

In addition to KuCoin, crypto exchange MEXC was issued a similar warning notice by the regulator on March 4. However, the regulator did not formally request that the firm cease and desist services, despite indicating that MEXC is “not allowed to offer or promote” virtual asset services in the emirate.

A representative for MEXC did not immediately respond to Decrypt’s request for comment.

Vancouver staff have recommended closing a council motion that explored whether the city could become “Bitcoin-friendly,” after determining that its rules don’t allow the crypto to be held as a municipal reserve asset.

The recommendation appears in a report to the council reviewing outstanding member motions, where staff said they had “conclusively determined” that Bitcoin is not “an allowable investment asset,” recommending the motion be closed as part of a broader reprioritization of staff resources and efforts.

Staff cited the Vancouver Charter, the provincial law that governs how the city operates, including how municipal funds can be invested, which does not permit the city to hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset, limiting Vancouver’s ability to pursue the proposal.

The motion’s sole opponent on council, Pete Fry, told local media he assumed the proposal had already been shelved and was surprised to see it referenced in the report.

“I already thought it was dead in the water,” he said. “It was probably good closure to have it mentioned in here, but I don’t even know that it was entirely necessary.”

The recommendation comes more than a year after Vancouver council initially backed a motion from Mayor Ken Sim directing staff to study whether the city could become a “Bitcoin-friendly city.”

At the time, the proposal asked officials to examine accepting taxes and fees in crypto, and the possibility of converting part of the city’s financial reserves into Bitcoin.

But the proposal had faced legal limits right off the start.

The British Columbia Ministry of Municipal Affairs said at the time that municipalities cannot hold financial reserves in crypto under provincial rules, adding in a statement that the intent of the legislation “is that local government funds are not exposed to undue risk.”

“The legal and treasury-related barriers were reportedly already understood from the outset, so the decision to end the process does not come as a real surprise” Kevin Lee, chief business officer at crypto exchange Gate, told Decrypt.

In Vancouver’s case, the initial prospects “appeared to reflect Mayor Ken Sim’s personal pro-Bitcoin vision as much as a practical municipal finance initiative,” Lee added.

Back then, Mayor Ken Sim defended the proposal, saying Bitcoin had been the top-performing asset “over the past 16 years,” arguing it should at least be considered as part of a diversified portfolio.

Decrypt has reached out to the mayor’s office for comment.

Constraints and upsides

The outcome also reflects limitations in how municipalities operate financially.

“Demand for Bitcoin isn’t the constraint, public balance sheet mandates are,” Dominick John, analyst at quantitative research firm Zeus Research, told Decrypt.

Municipal treasuries are “structured for capital preservation, which keeps assets like Bitcoin outside the reserve toolkit,” he said. “Until legislation, accounting treatment, and custody frameworks evolve, cities like Vancouver will remain stuck at the study.”

When asked whether this could set a precedent for other cities, John said it’s likely the same idea would be explored elsewhere, though most proposals “will die at feasibility.”

This could happen “only if local leaders believe there is political, branding, or ideological value in being seen as pro-crypto or pro-innovation,” Gate’s Lee said.

That value, as in Vancouver’s case, is not guaranteed, he said. “Once the political upside is weak, most of these initiatives are likely to stall at the feasibility stage.”

Still, crypto remains used far more as an investment than for payments, Gate’s Lee explained.

“Government payment options usually follow private sector behavior rather than lead it,” he noted. “If crypto becomes widely used for everyday payments across retail, e-commerce, and services, then accepting it for taxes or municipal fees will be the natural extension.”