Category: Business

The bitcoin $BTC$69,593.87 relief rally due to oil losing gains lasted about 36 hours.

Bitcoin fell to $69,393 on Thursday morning, down 0.8% over the past 24 hours and 4.3% on the week, after attacks on two oil tankers in Iraqi waters sent Brent crude surging back above $100 a barrel.

The move wiped out Wednesday’s optimism around the IEA’s proposed record reserve release and pushed risk sentiment back into retreat across Asian markets.

The chart tells the story of a market that can’t catch a break. Bitcoin touched $71,230 late Wednesday evening before the tanker headlines hit, dropping nearly $2,000 in a matter of hours.

That’s the third time in two weeks that bitcoin has pushed above $71,000 only to get knocked back by an escalation in the Middle East conflict.

Brent surged as much as 10.5% on Thursday, driven by a combination of the tanker attacks, clearance of the Mina Al Fahal port in Oman, continued hostilities across the Persian Gulf, and growing doubt about whether the IEA reserve release will be large enough to offset the supply disruption.

MSCI’s Asia Pacific index dropped 1.8% with energy the only sector in the green. The session extended losses as it went on, with no signs of stabilization.

The broader crypto market followed bitcoin lower. Ether fell to $2,025, down 0.5% on the day and 4.5% on the week. Solana dropped 1.5% to $85 and is now down 5.7% over seven days, the worst-performing major. XRP lost 0.8% to $1.37.

Dogecoin fell 0.8% to $0.092, giving back most of Tuesday’s Musk-driven gains. BNB was flat at $642.

The pattern of the past two weeks has been consistent. Good headlines push bitcoin toward $71,000-$74,000. Bad headlines drag it back toward $66,000-$68,000. The net movement over the period is close to zero, which is exactly what the on-chain data has been suggesting.

Apparent demand remains deeply negative at -30,800 $BTC on a 30-day basis. CryptoQuant’s bull-bear indicator is still in bear territory, while supply in loss continues to climb. Every bounce gets sold into by holders looking to exit.

Trump said earlier this week the war would resolve “very soon” and that military objectives were “pretty well complete.”

But the timeline remains unclear, Iran continues to strike targets across the region, and the Strait of Hormuz is still disrupted. Mixed messaging from Washington has left markets unable to price the conflict’s duration with any confidence.

The Fed meeting on March 17-18 is now five days away, and oil back above $100 makes the stagflation case harder to dismiss and rate cuts even more distant.

Throughout 2026, Shiba Inu has become one of the most stressed assets on the cryptocurrency market. The token’s price structure is severely weakened as a result of its inability to regain any significant momentum following months of continuous decline.

Trend flipping

The asset has been dominated by a broader bearish trend this year, which has been reinforced by the failure of even brief recovery attempts to produce long-term upside.

$SHIB is currently trading close to the $0.0000056 range, which shows how far the token has dropped from its prior highs. The chart unequivocally demonstrates a recurring pattern of lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers are still in complete control of the market. The asset has not been able to establish a steady upward trend because every attempt at recovery has been met with fresh selling pressure.

The recent fakeout rally, which briefly hinted that $SHIB might be getting ready for a comeback, was one of the most telling moments. After rising above local lows, the price got close to the 26-day exponential moving average, which was its first significant technical barrier. For a brief while, it seemed like buyers were at last making progress.

Shiba Inu gets rejected

But that optimism was short-lived. The entire move was a classic fakeout since $SHIB was firmly rejected rather than overcoming the resistance. Even the earliest stage of a possible trend reversal is currently unattainable, as demonstrated by the failure at the 26 EMA.

Fakeouts of this kind can be especially detrimental to market confidence. When a move fails, traders who entered positions anticipating a breakout are frequently compelled to exit, which can increase selling pressure. The rejection, in $SHIB‘s case, supported the notion that the larger downward trend is still present.

The future appears uncertain. The market will probably continue to be under pressure as long as the price stays below major moving averages. Although short-term rallies are still possible, particularly if the overall cryptocurrency market stabilizes, they might not be able to turn into long-term recoveries.

Ethereum’s stabilization chances

As the asset tries to stabilize following months of intense selling pressure, Ethereum is nearing another crucial point. The $2,000 mark is no longer the primary psychological or technical barrier for Ethereum, despite the market’s recent temporary stability in that area.

The 26-day exponential moving average, which presently serves as the most important resistance zone, is where the actual battlefield is located higher on the chart.

Ethereum has been stuck in a distinct downward structure for a number of months. The price chart consistently displays lower highs and lower lows, indicating that the general trend is still bearish. The asset has not been able to develop sustained upward momentum because every attempt at recovery has been stopped by declining resistance.

For traders earlier in the cycle, the $2,000 mark held great psychological significance. Because they represent important sentiment thresholds, round numbers have historically drawn attention.

Recent price trends, however, indicate that the market has already reached this level. Earlier this year, Ethereum briefly broke below it. Since then, it has traded around that level without producing the strong reactions that typically accompany a significant psychological barrier.

The 26 EMA, where selling activity seems to be concentrated, is now Ethereum’s true challenge. Sellers swiftly surface and drive the market back down each time the price gets close to this moving average. This pattern suggests that a lot of traders use the 26 EMA as a crucial decision point, either to open new short trades or to close long positions.

A break above the 26 EMA would indicate a change in short-term momentum and possibly pave the way for a more significant recovery move. But for the time being, Ethereum is still constrained by a number of barriers.

Solana’s tighter market range

Solana is about to enter a technical phase that might cause volatility to spike. The asset is starting to stabilize close to local lows after months of decline and frequent rejection by major moving averages. Even though the price is still relatively stable, a number of indicators point to the possibility that the market is getting ready for a much bigger move.

Solana is currently trading between $85 and $87, consolidating following a sharp decline that began earlier in the year. The 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages are all above the price, indicating that the overall trend is still obviously negative. These levels support the longer-term downward trend and continue to serve as significant resistance zones.

Solana is forming higher lows along a rising support line, forming a tightening range, according to recent price action. This kind of compression frequently heralds an impending expansion in volatility, particularly following extended downward pressure.

Solana derivates staying up

This possibility is supported by CoinGlass derivative data. There has been a noticeable increase in futures activity around Solana, as traders position themselves for a more significant directional move. Despite the comparatively muted price movement, market participants are becoming more active, according to metrics pertaining to open interest and trading flows.

Solana has not yet confirmed a breakout in spite of these signals. The fact that the price is still stuck in a small range indicates that the market is still applying pressure rather than releasing it. The duration of this stabilization phase may vary, but the final breakout is typically stronger the longer the compression lasts.

Crypto traders are increasingly using the DeFi derivatives platform Hyperliquid to speculate on oil prices, in the latest sign that always-on crypto markets are beginning to absorb trading tied to global macro shocks.

Oil-linked perpetual futures on Hyperliquid processed roughly $991 million in trading volume over the past 24 hours, according to data shared Wednesday on X by James Wang, director of product marketing at Cerebras Systems. Comparable contracts recorded about $75,000 in volume on Coinbase over the same period.

The disparity underscores how liquidity for synthetic commodity exposure is clustering on crypto-native derivatives venues rather than traditional exchanges or U.S.-based crypto platforms.

Order-book data in the oil market shows large resting orders and relatively tight spreads, suggesting participation from professional liquidity providers alongside retail traders.

Crude prices surged on Monday amid fears the conflict could further disrupt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, briefly pushing Brent crude to about $119.50 a barrel before retreating to roughly $91–$100 after President Donald Trump suggested the war involving Iran might soon de-escalate.

By Wednesday evening in New York trading, Brent crude was hovering around $90–$92 a barrel as markets continued to digest developments and the prospect of emergency oil stockpile releases.

The activity follows this month’s first weekend surge in trading on the exchange as tensions tied to Iran rattled global markets, helping to push the price of its native token, $HYPE, above $32. It is up a further 6% on the day to $36.33, according to CoinGecko data.

As previously reported by Decrypt, traders have turned to the platform amid headlines surrounding tensions in the Middle East while conventional markets, at times, remain closed.

Hyperliquid lets traders take leveraged positions through perpetual futures contracts collateralized by stablecoins, primarily USDC, allowing them to speculate without opening brokerage accounts or accessing regulated commodity futures venues such as the CME Group.

The exchange’s system is divided between HyperCore and HyperEVM. HyperCore runs the platform fully on-chain, with spot and perpetual futures order books recording every order, trade, and liquidation with near-instant finality and supporting up to about 200,000 orders per second, according to its white paper. HyperEVM, meanwhile, provides an Ethereum-compatible environment where developers can deploy smart contracts and build applications that interact with the exchange’s liquidity.

It’s a feature that has attracted participants since its mainnet launch in 2023, helping to ferment growth on the exchange while doubling the token’s total market cap to over $8.8 billion in one year.

For Hyperliquid’s native token, $HYPE, trading tied to macro volatility can have direct financial implications. The protocol directs a portion of trading fees toward token buybacks, linking spikes in derivatives activity to potential demand for the asset.

Analysts say geopolitical shocks may continue to drive episodic bursts of trading on always-on crypto venues as traders seek to position ahead of global events.

If sustained, that dynamic could position platforms like Hyperliquid as an early outlet for traders seeking to price global risk ahead of conventional markets, they say.

Japan will begin releasing crude oil from its strategic reserves as early as next Monday to curb potential spikes in gasoline and petroleum prices caused by Middle East conflicts and disruptions to Persian Gulf oil shipments, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Wednesday.

The intervention will mark the first time the nation has tapped its government oil reserves without waiting for a coordinated response from the International Energy Agency (IEA) since stockpiling began in 1978.

The release will cover 15 days’ worth of reserves held by private-sector entities, followed by one month’s supply from government stockpiles.

“We will flexibly review the support measures to ensure continuous relief for the public even if the situation is prolonged,” Takaichi told reporters in Tokyo.

Japan’s decision reflects its acute exposure to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed to commercial traffic following US and Israeli military strikes on Iran late last month.

More than 90% of Japan’s crude imports originate from Persian Gulf producers, a dependency Takaichi characterized as “prominently high” relative to other industrialized economies.

The prime minister warned that shipments are expected to drop dramatically by late March, creating the potential for severe shortages of gasoline and other refined products.

Retail gasoline prices have already begun climbing. Industry ministry data show the national average approached 162 yen ($1.02) per liter as of Monday, up from a mid-January low of approximately 155 yen.

Takaichi cited projections that prices could breach 200 yen ($1.26) per liter and pledged to deploy government funds to cap costs at roughly 170 yen, providing a buffer equivalent to approximately 15% below the anticipated peak.

At the end of December, Japan held 470 million barrels of petroleum reserves, sufficient to cover 254 days of domestic consumption.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.